Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight into the entire midweek card of Premier League matches.
Chelsea v Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favorite betting angles this season is the center forward committing a foul against the center back.
This season’s Premier League is one to watch. The data and eye tests tell the same story, with the league placing far more emphasis on winning first contact and retreating toward directism. And when that happens, the center forward not only scores goals, but also begins to give fouls.
result? Center backs are fouled more often than the market expects.
João Pedro has rejuvenated under Liam Rosenior and has performed well as a central striker, while also committing a healthy number of fouls. Under the new manager, he started 6 games as a center forward. He committed eight fouls. Joe Rodon is on the firing line when it comes to fouls drawn at a bulky 4/1 with a sky bet of fouls + 2.
Score prediction: 2-1
Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner has put in a strong display with +2 fouls in this game, priced at 11/4 on Sky Bet. Garner has achieved this mark in 10 of the 20 games he has started in central midfield this season, showing he is comfortable stepping in at key moments.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s Alex Scott has been attracting fouls and has scored 14 points in his last eight games. A battle between Garner and Scott in the center of the park will see Everton players mount several challenges to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Jones knows best bet: James Garner +2 foul (11/4, Sky Bet)
Tottenham v Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
With just two wins from 16 Premier League games, Tottenham are now just six points from safety and have suddenly fallen down the table.
Skybet isn’t kidding either. Spurs will lose at 10/1.
If they don’t improve quickly and West Ham keep winning, relegation could become a real possibility. This is getting serious.
Thomas Frank’s Spurs will be relegated in 10/1
Spurs easily turned things around at 19/10 here, and Sky Bet have only won one of their last 11 home Premier League games.
On the other hand, when the chips are down, Eddie Howe will often deliver results for Newcastle, using frustration within the home fanbase as a weapon in the hope that the north London faithful will side with the team. That’s why a quick start is expected and why the 5/2 Newcastle vs Newcastle half-time/full-time market on Sky Bet is a smart way to increase your odds of an away win.
Score prediction: 1-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8:15pm
One of the notable bets on the midweek card is Crisencio Somerville to shoot on target at evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defenses lately, with nine shots on target in his last six games.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system clearly suits Somerville, giving him the freedom to drift into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United team that has shown widespread vulnerability, Somerville will be expected to get another try at goal.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crisencio Somerville +1 Shot on Target (Even with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm
Brighton’s wobble is a big-stakes advantage to exploit. Despite just one win in 12 games being more than just a flash in the pan, they are still priced as a dangerous outfit in the market. Villa, notorious for being ruthless and efficient at home, will be on offer on 10/11 to earn maximum points on Sky Bet. When you look at what Brighton has to offer, it looks generous.
Coach Fabian Hürzeler’s side are struggling to regain their creativity and confidence. His end as Brighton manager could be near.
Score prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove on his debut. It wasn’t always pretty or easy on the eyes, but he made his presence felt in the 1-0 win against Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance shows the striker is eager to push himself and assert himself.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. This could almost be two yellow card-worthy moments in the 90th minute. He has the aura of a striker who plays as if it’s only a matter of time before he oversteps, misses a challenge or vents his frustration. Like when he twisted his shirt at Brighton to stop an attack.
Jorgen Strand Larsen will be carded at Sky Bet on February 19th
Strand Larsen is certainly a striker, but he’s a sensitive, combative striker who clearly wants to make his mark. Sky Bet on the card has very good odds at 19/2.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Jones knows best bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen on the card (19/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7:30pm
In this version of Josep Guardiola’s Manchester City, chances are always given. It is very different from their controlled and possessive style.
Fulham, on the other hand, are not here to make up the numbers. Both scoring teams have played in 12 of the last 15 games, having achieved the feat in the last four visits to the Etihad. It’s not luck, it’s a proven blueprint that allows City to counterattack, exploit mistakes and play freely.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham are also likely to join them. If both teams score, it looks like we’ll be betting 4/5 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and the Wolves. Don’t get me wrong, there’s bad blood out there.
Every touch will be scrutinized, every run will be jeered, and if he gets on the scoresheet, emotions will explode.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He’s combative and fierce, and at 10/1 on Sky Bet, he’s a screaming value when he scores and gets the card. Imagine a Gibbs vs. Whyte goal sparking celebration in what is now a huge game for Forest. If your shirt comes off, you may get a reservation.
Combining the two using the Sky Bet BuildABet function makes 10/1 look like a steal.
Score prediction: 2-1
Sunderland v Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm
If you want a betting market that rewards you for understanding the football game rather than predicting perfection, then the “Be Fouled” market is for you.
Bookmakers set foul prices that deviate significantly from averages and historical data. What they have a hard time fully explaining is their role within a particular matchup. It’s like playing a foul-prone centre-forward against a crafty centre-back. That’s it here.
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Gary Neville felt VAR “didn’t need to intervene” in the dramatic conclusion to Liverpool’s game against Manchester City, in which Rayan Cherki’s goal was disallowed and Dominik Szoboszlai was given a red card.
This is not about Van Dijk losing control or losing his cool. That rarely happens.
It’s a story about Van Dijk being drawn into a very specific type of duel with an opponent named Brian Bobby, who is not a delicate centre-forward. His game is built on conflict.
Last season at Ajax, he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, a huge number for a striker operating in a possession-dominant team. Even more notable is his recent trend of bullying big men, with nine fouls in the last six games. Van Dijk won 10/11 with +1 foul on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
Brentford v Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm
Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless pace, conceding goals here and there, making things extremely difficult for anyone trying to silence them. This is the perfect cocktail to favor a line of 2.5 goals or more when the odds are hovering around the even money mark. He has averaged 3.4 goals per 90 minutes in his last 13 games, with 10 of those scoring over 2.5 goals per 90 minutes.
Even without Brentford’s contribution, Arsenal could easily cover this line on their own. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games. It’s a ruthless attacking form from a team that knows exactly how to punish mistakes.
Score prediction: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS best bet: 2.5 goals or more (even with Sky Bet)
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