A bitterly cold and snowy winter has already begun in the Northeastern United States, but the region’s typically snowiest months are just beginning.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, influential northeast snowstorms, many of them strong, occur most frequently in February. That’s because historically, unlike earlier in the season, this month tends to have the ingredients needed to produce major winter storms.
As a result, following the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Maine, nearly every city along the busy road and to the east typically sees more snow in February than any other month.
Many major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor have already seen higher-than-normal snowfall this winter for the first time in years. The main culprit is the historic and deadly January storm.
If this holds, the storm could be on just the right track down the East Coast for another big snowfall this month.
February snowfall peaks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are associated with the Atlantic Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures along the Atlantic coast are typically relatively warm in early winter because large bodies of water are slow to lose summer and fall heat. Storms that interact with this warmth are more likely to produce rain than snow.
The water temperature usually drops by February, but this year the water temperature dropped faster than usual, partly due to the repeated blasts of strong arctic air at the beginning of the season.
As of this week, sea surface temperatures from northern New England to the Carolinas are 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, according to NOAA data. This is extremely cold even though much of the open Atlantic Ocean remains unusually warm.
These cold ocean temperatures combined with bouts of cold air have left the door open to a snowy winter well into February.
As a result, this season has put recent winters to shame for some. Some areas along the Eastern Seaboard recorded one of the five coldest winters on record, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Although the air and water can be cold throughout the season, snow doesn’t fall until a storm arrives.
Two storms this winter have already shown what will happen when harvest conditions are ripe. The first was a devastating snow and ice storm in late January that moved across the South and then up along the East Coast. The other was a bomb cyclone that hit the Southeast and the Carolinas as the calendar turned to February.
New York City recorded just over 21 inches of snow between December and January, although the city typically receives about 14 inches. In Philadelphia, nearly 16 inches fell during the same period when the city should have seen just over 10 inches.
Washington, DC and Boston also had above-average snow totals in February.
Thanks to a major pattern change that will eventually lead to a thaw in the Northeast, another historic snowstorm in the East doesn’t seem likely for at least the next few days.
This global warming trend appears to continue. According to the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, temperatures are expected to be higher than normal from mid-February to late February.
Snow and ice are possible even if it’s not extremely cold, but this forecast could mean the heaviest snowfall of the season has already occurred. Some forecast models are hinting at the possibility of a coastal storm by early next week, but as currently depicted, it is unlikely to materialize.
The past few winters in the Northeast haven’t felt like winter at all. Despite the extreme cold, last winter was in the top third of the warmest winters on record. The 2023-2024 winter was the warmest on record both in the Northeast and across the Lower 48 states. The 2022-2023 season will also be the third warmest in the Northeast.
Winter is the warmest season for nearly 75% of the United States, as fossil fuel pollution increases global temperatures. Unseasonably warm weather and lackluster snowpack go hand in hand, with snowfall falling around the world.
New York City has lacked more than 3 feet of snow the past two winters. Even though snowfall totals so far this season are finally above average, it will take a tremendous amount of snow to erase the overall deficit. And the same is true for cities in this region.
