Job Report Preview January 2026

Wednesday’s jobs report could resemble a no-brainer in many ways.

Economists expect January’s nonfarm payrolls report to show zero or modest growth in that month. In addition, the annual revision also reveals that the U.S. economy created almost no net jobs going back to early 2024, potentially raising further questions about the health of the labor market.

“The expectation is it’s going to be zero,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The consensus is probably around 50,000. Anything near zero just shows how fragile things are, just very weak. All of this is happening without layoffs, but layoffs will increase. I think we could see job losses here soon.”

Payroll reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. It was delayed by five days due to a brief government shutdown.

Officially, the Dow Jones consensus forecast is for a payroll increase of 55,000, but that number is trending downward and would follow December’s 50,000-job increase. This is enough to keep the unemployment rate still low at 4.4%, and annual wage growth is expected to be 3.7%.

However, many Wall Street economists are expecting lower-than-expected numbers. Goldman Sachs, for example, predicts an increase of just 45,000 people. Meanwhile, Citigroup expects an increase of 135,000 jobs, but says this is due to seasonal distortions and that “appropriately adjusted payroll growth…is close to zero.”

There are also amendments, troubling the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has struggled to obtain timely and relevant data.

In its preliminary adjustment last September, the BLS estimated that the number of employees would decrease by 911,000 people from the previous report, or about half of the total, for the one-year index revision to March 2025. The agency is expected to report its final numbers on Wednesday, which are expected to be lower but still significant. Goldman, for example, estimates the number at 750,000 to 900,000, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a few weeks ago that the number could be closer to 600,000.

Each month of 2025 reported so far has been revised downwards, with 624,000 fewer jobs than originally reported and average monthly salary increases of less than 40,000. Wednesday’s report will include the first revision of the December tally.

The BLS is also adjusting the model it uses to estimate jobs created by businesses that open and close during the month, which could also tamper with the numbers.

Either way, the changes signal a stumbling block in the labor market and are likely to draw even more attention from Mr. Powell and others as they plot their next policy moves.

Even White House officials are spending time this week tempering expectations.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, a finalist to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, told CNBC that several factors are converging to keep payroll growth low, at least for now.

Chief among them is the government’s efforts against illegal immigration. Hassett also noted that increased productivity due to improvements in artificial intelligence is constraining companies’ hiring needs.

“I think at this point we should expect slightly lower employment numbers, consistent with higher GDP growth. … There’s no need to panic if we see a set of lower numbers than we’re used to seeing,” he said on Monday. “Because, again, population growth is down and productivity growth is soaring. This is an unusual situation.”

Hassett added that there could be a scenario in which “job creation lags, productivity soars, profits soars, GDP soars.”

There have been other signs of a deteriorating labor market recently.

Job openings in December fell to the lowest level since September 2020, according to the BLS. At the same time, planned layoffs and hiring were both the worst in January since the 2009 global financial crisis, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported. Additionally, ADP reported that there were only 22,000 private sector jobs in January. On the bright side, small business employment growth was 3.3% last month, higher than 3.1% in January 2025 and significantly higher than 1.3% for the same month in 2024, Homebase reported.

From the Fed’s perspective, policymakers are looking at employment trends over a period of time, rather than one month at a time. Most officials expect slow hiring and low levels of layoffs, suggesting stabilization rather than real weakness.

In speeches Tuesday, regional presidents Lori Logan of Dallas and Beth Hammack of Cleveland both said they thought the economy was doing well, but were more concerned about inflation than unemployment. They also question the need for further rate cuts.

“Rather than trying to tweak fund rates, I think it’s better to remain patient as we assess the impact of recent rate cuts and monitor how the economy develops,” Hammack said. “My prediction is that it could be delayed for quite some time.”