The 2026 Ford Mustang Dark Horse SC on display during a media preview for the 2026 Chicago Auto Show at McCormick Place on February 6, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Jacek Bocharski | Anadolu | Getty Images
Detroit – ford motor reported its biggest quarterly profit shortfall in four years in its fourth quarter results on Tuesday, while also predicting that 2026 will be a year of recovery for the automaker.
Ford’s 2026 outlook includes adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion last year. Adjusted free cash flow will be $5 billion to $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Capital expenditures increased from $8.8 billion to $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
Here’s how the company performed in the fourth quarter compared to average estimates compiled by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 13 cents adjusted, 19 cents expected Auto sales: $42.4 billion, $41.83 billion expected
According to LSEG, the EPS of 32% below consensus was the company’s first negative quarterly since 2024 and its worst since the 42% difference in Q4 2021 results.
The company said the drop in revenue was primarily due to unanticipated tariff costs of approximately $900 million related to auto parts credits not taking effect sooner than expected. As of Dec. 15, Ford had confirmed fourth-quarter profit before interest and taxes of $7.7 billion, which fell to $6.8 billion due to additional charges.
Ford Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the lower-than-expected profit was due to further fallout from last year’s fire at the Novelis aluminum supply plant in New York, which is currently not expected to be fully operational until the middle of this year. The plant supplies Ford’s highly profitable F-Series pickup trucks.
“In 2026, we’re looking at roughly $1 billion in benefits. But this year, because of Novelis, we’re going to see tariffs go up to roughly match that savings on aluminum,” the congressman told reporters.
Ford’s net tariff impact is expected to be $2 billion in 2026, about the same as last year, he said. He added that the Novelis fire had a $2 billion impact on Ford in the second half of the year.
House Ford CEO Jim Farley said 2025 results continue to show that the company’s underlying business is improving despite special items impacting results.
The company’s sales in 2025 were $187.3 billion, up 1% from $185 billion in the same period last year. This included $45.9 billion in the fourth quarter, down 5% year over year.
At the business unit level, the company’s conventional and fleet businesses are expected to offset expected losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion this year in its Model E electric vehicle division. Pretax profits for the Ford Pro fleet business are expected to be between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion, followed by the traditional Blue business at between $4 billion and $4.5 billion.
On an unadjusted basis, the company had a net loss of $8.2 billion last year, its biggest loss since the Great Recession of 2008, according to FactSet. This includes $15.5 billion in special charges in the fourth quarter primarily related to the withdrawal of a previously announced all-electric vehicle plan.
Automakers typically exclude “special items,” or one-time charges, from their adjusted financial results to give investors a clearer picture of their core ongoing business operations.
Ford reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $11.1 billion, or a loss of $2.77 per share. By comparison, net income for the same period in 2024 was $1.8 billion, or 45 cents per share. Adjusted for one-time costs, the company reported earnings of 13 cents per share.
