There is a clear path forward when assessing Tottenham’s chances of being relegated this season. And now, that possibility has never been greater.
At times like these, turning to the betting markets is always a reliable guide. They have a habit of ignoring noise and emotions. They don’t deal in romance or reputation.
They deal with cold, hard odds. And now they’re making the white half of north London tremble.
Since the beginning of this year, the odds have dropped for the Spurs, and things have become frighteningly one-sided.
100/1. 66/1. January 33rd. 10/1.
Currently, Spurs are set to be relegated from the Premier League at 5/1 on Sky Bet. The implied probability is 16%.
Isn’t it impossible for Spurs to win the Champions League and suffer relegation?
But this predicament is no joke.
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Watch for free: Highlights of the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United.
With 12 games remaining, Spurs were sensationally involved in a relegation scrap. They are more likely to be relegated than Leeds or Sunderland. Who would have expected that when the first pitch was thrown in August?
Such prices are built on performance data, remaining fixtures, underlying numbers and, crucially in Tottenham’s case, the strength of the players around them. And this is where their problems deepen.
West Ham are losing out on points in the Premier League.
They have scored 10 points in their last six games, fourth-most of any team. That number would be 13 if not for the injury-time drama against Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a West Ham team that has been completely revamped by Nuno Espirito Santo.
Despite some second-half setbacks, this team appears to be playing together in front of a fan base that shows signs of survival. In Tuesday night’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United, the London Stadium shook in the second half in a manner not seen since that special European night three years ago under David Moyes.
“There’s a team spirit here that they can hang on to,” reported Sky Sports’ Chris Reddy. “The players are walking around the pitch applauding the fans. There’s a real belief that they can keep going.”
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Watch for free: Highlights of the Premier League match between West Ham and Manchester United.
Meanwhile, manager Thomas Frank has managed just two wins in Tottenham’s last 16 Premier League games. If it looks like a relegated form, if it looks like a relegated form, it’s probably a relegated form.
“Spurs are in a relegation battle,” concluded Sky Sports’ Michael Bridge. “The team lacks confidence, and there are no key players who are close to returning.”
What makes this threat so serious is that the Premier League’s lower divisions refuse to follow a business-as-usual scenario in order to survive.
The Hammers’ recent rise has skewed the safety line. It is injected with a level of competitiveness that threatens to raise the bar for survival higher than usual. This is shaping up to be a season in which even 38 points is not enough to guarantee safety, and the real target may be 40 points.
That is dangerous territory for any side caught in a cycle of contradictions.
For a club that regularly dines at the top table, this is not only unpleasant to read, but downright alarming.
