States across the country with key midterm elections this year paid more than $134 billion in tariffs between President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs in March 2025 and last November, a new analysis of U.S. Census data finds. States paid a total of $199 billion in tariffs during that period, according to U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnerships Worldwide.
President Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in recent testimony to Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs are “not inflationary.”
But President Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be a factor in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data on American consumers and prices shows that affordability issues are real and that many voters believe the economy is worsening. A January poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College found that 54% of voters oppose President Trump’s tariffs.
“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for the increased prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of We Pay the Tariffs and president of Trade Partnerships Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions of dollars in taxes in states that will decide the 2026 election. He just doesn’t want to do that,” Anthony said.
Anthony said the coalition is highlighting the new data to counter rhetoric that tariffs are “paid by other companies” and “paid by Americans” and to “educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who will pay the price: American small businesses, workers and consumers.”
Top states and tariff bills
California: $38 billion Texas: $21 billion Michigan: $13 billion Georgia: $12 billion Illinois: $9.6 billion Ohio: $6.5 billion Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion North Carolina: $5 billion South Carolina: $5.2 billion Kentucky: $4 billion
This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. Republicans maintain slim majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats need to win four seats to gain a majority in the Senate. To maintain the House majority, Republicans cannot afford to lose more than two seats.
The midterm election primary season begins on March 3, with voters heading to polling places in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.
Small businesses across the U.S. will be hit hard by tariffs.
Many small business owners in every U.S. state are speaking out about the impact tariffs have had on their businesses, some as part of a new YouTube video-led campaign called Small Business Against Tariffs, launched Wednesday to raise awareness.
Chris Gibbs of Shelby County, Ohio, who grows corn, soybeans, wheat and alfalfa hay and farms 90 cows and calves, said the tariffs hit him double. “Operating costs are going up,” Gibbs said. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber have increased the cost of everything I do, from building buildings, building barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels, parts and even fertilizer,” he said.
A combine harvester cuts, threshes and cleans soybeans during harvest in Waynesfield, Ohio.
Matthew Hatcher | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Ms Gibbs said the trade war was also impacting her ability to sell crops.
“In 2018, this president destroyed our trade relationship. At that moment, just like President Carter with the Russia embargo in 1980, we became an unreliable supplier. This is where we are now, and we have not recovered,” Gibbs said. “Brazil is now a major supplier of soybeans to China. Trump thrust President Xi into Brazil’s arms, and Brazil never left.”
Commitments to buy agricultural products were a big part of the first trade war between the United States and China. China has failed to meet its obligations to purchase agricultural products. China has promised to increase orders in 2025, but trade statistics show no significant increase.
Noel Hasegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, told CNBC that soybean exports to China were down 95% from a year ago.
“China currently consumes most of its soybeans from countries such as Brazil,” Hasegaba said. “The United States produces about 20% of the world’s soybeans, and Brazil currently accounts for 40%, largely due to China shifting its purchases to Brazil. As a major export gateway, we are doing everything we can to help exporters move their products more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity in trade policy to ensure that product moves,” he said.
Gibbs said the tariff aid promised by President Trump to farmers is a slap in the face to all farmers and Americans. “If these checks arrive, it’s money that I and all American consumers spent and paid in tariffs,” Gibbs said.
HighBrow USA, based in Saline, Michigan, specializes in linear air pumps for wastewater treatment and septic aerators, which are widely used throughout the United States as residential wastewater treatment systems for rural and suburban homes.The company’s billings reached $1.2 million in 2025. Managing director Tim Smith said the uncertainty over how long the fees would last forced the company to cancel its expansion plans. The southeast Michigan company has 10 employees and the addition of the location will create three to four new jobs. “We’re a small business and some people might think there aren’t a lot of jobs, but they’re good paying jobs,” Smith said.
“We only pass 40% of our costs on to our customers,” Smith said. “It’s a competition between companies to see who can hold out and burn through more cash to absorb the tariffs. But I don’t think any company can continue to hold out and absorb the tariffs in the long term,” he added.
The company imports products from the Philippines. The country does not yet have a tariff agreement with the United States, but representatives from each country discussed a 19% tariff on Philippine products in Manila on Monday.
Mr Smith said changes in tariff rates were also placing an additional burden on customs brokers. “We had to renew the tariff bond a couple of times because we needed to add more money to the tariff bond,” Smith said. “There was a delay in getting some of the containers because the bond was stuck. Without the bond, we can’t process anything.”
Customs bonds, also known as surety bonds, provide coverage to importers to ensure payment of duties and taxes levied on imported goods. The value of these bonds and related collateral has soared as the Trump administration increases tariffs. If the deposit balance is insufficient, the importer will not be able to take title to the shipment.
Even if the Supreme Court rules that many of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal and requires companies to be reimbursed, Smith said there would be no cash relief as the Trump administration awaits new tariffs, which could happen on February 20th.
“We’ve always had no problem getting refunds through customs,” Smith said. “Sometimes it took a year, but the framework does exist for that. But what I can say is that we are in no way basing our business plan on a court ruling that says we’re going to get our money back. If it’s found to be illegal, there will be even more tariffs.”
In New York, toy store owner Jennifer Bergman closed her mother’s West Side Kids store after 44 years due to tariffs. “The majority of our toys are manufactured in China, so the tariff costs have taken over our business,” Bergman said. “We were constantly receiving emails from vendors regarding price increases, so we had no choice but to increase our prices.”
One example was her order for a scooter. Bergman said the company typically sold $50,000 worth of scooters each year. After the tariffs, she didn’t own a scooter that cost less than $200, which affected not only her sales but also her inventory. “The price of a scooter went up $30,” Bergman said. “The scooter company called me and said they were rerouting the container to Canada because of the tariffs and they wouldn’t bring the container in until the tariffs were lowered,” she added.
At the end of May, Bergman said she started looking at her numbers and realized she wouldn’t be able to make July’s rent. “Normally June is one of my busiest months…but June was just killing me. I couldn’t afford to sell my inventory. I called my landlord, and fortunately he has a 44-year relationship with me, and he told me I had to close.”
The Bergman store closed at the end of July.
In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened during the 2021 pandemic. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the coffee shop and roaster, said he’s grateful now that the coffee tariffs have been lifted, but he’s still drinking coffee at high tariff prices.
“We order 4,000 pounds of coffee each month, primarily for our two stores, and are facing increased costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other supplies,” Hagen said. “Even though we absorbed the costs of a coffee shop, unfortunately we had to increase prices in our roasting business.”
Before the tariffs, wholesale customers were paying about $10 a pound for roasted coffee beans, Hagen said. Customers are currently paying about $13.50 per pound, but he’d like to see that peak.
Coffee prices are changing significantly and rapidly. The original 10% to 50% tariffs ranged from high tariffs on Brazil (50%) to lower tariffs on India (25%), Vietnam (20%), and Indonesia (19%).
Although most of these tariffs, including those on Brazil, were lifted in a November 2025 executive order, Hagen said the tariffs are creating lingering effects. His company mitigated tariff costs by delaying store expansion and purchasing roasting equipment before the tariffs took effect. “We were entering an era where cash was king. Being a small business, I don’t have a lot of cash,” Hagen said. “So we had to shorten it to ensure and provide as much runway as possible to get through the uncertainty.”
Hagen said consumers are being undermined based on the company’s sales efforts. “Average tickets are going down,” he said. “Despite foot traffic being relatively stable year-over-year, sales are actually down year-over-year. Consumers are tightening their wallets and are not buying add-ons like muffins. Our fourth quarter was terrible. It was the worst in the four years we’ve been open,” he said.
“The PTSD from the last inflation spike has flared up again,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners. “And even if it’s not fully passed on to consumers, businesses are absorbing it through lower profit margins. … The pain of tariffs is real. Ask businesses and consumers. Inflation is a major pain point in the economy, so I think it’s definitely going to be a significant issue.”
