Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) participates in an “anti-imperialist” protest in front of the U.S. Embassy against the U.S. invasion of Venezuela, which killed 32 Cuban soldiers in Havana, January 16, 2026.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
Cuba’s communist regime is facing its biggest challenge since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
US President Donald Trump has gradually increased pressure on the Caribbean islands since a January 3 military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of the Cuban government. Cuba announced that 32 of its citizens were killed in the attack.
Since then, President Trump has effectively cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil, calling the Cuban government an “unusual and extraordinary threat” and vowing to impose tariffs on any country that supplies Cuba with oil.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel condemned the move, saying “surrender is not an option.” He then said his government was willing to hold talks with the US government, although “without pressure or preconditions.”
The country has warned that international airlines will not be able to refuel domestically due to fuel shortages. The Cuban government, struggling with a worsening economic crisis, recently introduced rationing measures to protect vital services and restricted fuel supplies to key sectors.
The plan reportedly includes limiting fuel sales, closing some tourist facilities, shortening the school day and reducing the working week at state-owned enterprises to four days, Monday through Thursday.
“Cuba’s current situation is the most serious it has been since the 1990s, when Cuba suddenly had to survive without the support of its eastern bloc,” Per Kumaraswamy, a professor of Latin American studies at the University of Nottingham, told CNBC in an email.
It is increasingly likely that President Miguel Díaz-Canel will be forced from power in a Maduro-style controlled transition in the coming weeks or months.
robert manx
Head of Americas Research at Verisk Maplecroft
Kumaraswamy said President Trump’s tariff threats are a deterrent for many countries.
Mexico is sending humanitarian aid but has halted oil shipments in an effort to maintain ties with Havana while avoiding President Trump’s tariffs.
Kumaraswamy said that while “there is of course frustration over the difficulties of daily life,” “many Cubans are determined to resist threats to their national sovereignty, and a new wave of patriotism is emerging.”
“Accelerating collapse”
air canada It later canceled all flights to Cuba due to fuel shortages, but the airline announced on Monday that it would repatriate about 3,000 customers already in Cuba over the next few days.
Tourism is an important source of income for Cuba’s cash-strapped government, and the country is a popular winter vacation destination for Canadian tourists.
A Turkish Airlines plane takes off from José Martí International Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
Unlike in previous crises, the Cuban regime has no foreign partners to step in with aid, said Robert Manx, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
“Raising the stakes, the United States also pressured Nicaragua to limit Cuba’s access to foreign currency and end visa-free travel for Cubans,” Manx told CNBC in an email.
Government commitments to increase the use of limited renewable energy sources are likely to be “too little, too late”, Mankus said. He added that civil war could break out, given that the island’s domestic energy production falls far short of what is needed to keep the lights on.
“If the collapse of basic services accelerates, the administration will be under extreme pressure to find a negotiated solution,” Manx said.
Manx added that there was a “shrinking chance” that a Maduro-style managed transition would force Díaz-Canel from power in the coming months, but said it was more likely that “the regime will try to hang on” until the US midterm elections in November.
The United Nations last week warned of a possible humanitarian “collapse” as Cuba’s oil supplies dwindle.
“The Secretary-General is very concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba. If oil needs are not met, the humanitarian situation in Cuba will deteriorate or even collapse,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.
A big test for BRICS
Helen Yaffe, a Cuba expert and professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow in Scotland, said Cuba’s emergency measures should be seen as an important test for the BRICS bloc of developing countries.
“This is probably the most important test for BRICS right now…If BRICS cannot protect, defend and rally its members, what is it worth?” Yaffe told CNBC by phone.
Cuba gained the status of a “partner country” in the BRICS group in January last year, strengthening ties with countries such as Brazil, Russia, and China. In fact, all three countries have attempted to provide aid to Cuba in recent days.
The Mexican government sent humanitarian aid to the Cuban people aboard two Mexican Navy ships. On February 9, 2026, more than 800 tons of supplies were transported by sea from Asipona, Veracruz, Mexico.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday that the Chinese government “resolutely opposes the inhumane act that deprives the Cuban people of their right to survival and development.” He added that China would seek support for Cuba “as always.”
Meanwhile, Russia described the fuel situation in Havana as “truly critical” and said attempts by the United States to further pressure the country were causing a number of problems.
“The Cuban government is not going to submit,” Yaffe said. “The reality is that[the United States]will continue to tighten, the Cuban people will continue to resist, and there will be a lot of unnecessary suffering.”
He added, “I’m a historian, and it’s very arrogant for historians to try to predict the future, but you can see trends. And I can guarantee you we’ve been here before, in the early 1990s, when no one thought Cuba would pull together and pull through, but they did.”
