Back in the last weekend of November, things were very different in Coventry City.
A 3-1 win over Charlton gave them a 10 point lead at the top of the table. They lost just one game all season and won 11 of their last 12 games.
Frank Lampard was as down-to-earth as ever, but the talk around Coventry was less about whether they would get promotion and more about what records they could break.
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They then lost 3-0 against Ipswich. They have won only four of 13 games since the beginning of December. The lead was gone and the once constant flow of goals withered away.
The theory was that Coventry’s thin squad was running out of steam and that adding a few players in January would get things going again.
This hypothesis appeared to be confirmed after back-to-back wins against Leicester and Millwall in the middle of last month.
However, he has scored just one point in three games since then. Loses to Norwich and QPR saw them lose two leads, failing to beat Oxford at home last Saturday. For context, the U’s conceded a goal within 20 seconds of their next match at home to Norwich in midweek.
Contrast that with Middlesbrough’s incredible form. Coventry have six wins on the spin and 10 of their last 14 games, while Coventry have won just five.
Boro will visit the CBS Arena on Monday night, top of the Championship table, live on Sky Sports. A position occupied exclusively by Coventry since 4 October.
Here are the Championship standings after 18 games of the season, with Coventry leading Middlesbrough by 10 points.
“Early forms were unsustainable.”
But how worried should Coventry be? Is this a long blip or a sign of a full-fledged decline?
“I think it’s more of a concern than a crisis,” Andy Hinchcliffe told the Sky Sports Essential podcast. “We are comparing the last 13 games to the first 18 games at Coventry where we scored 50 goals.
“This won’t continue for the whole season. You won’t be able to average close to three goals per game for the whole campaign.
“They made a great start and deserved to be top of the table for a long time because of the football they were playing. There’s always going to be a bit of slack and I think that’s what we’ve seen in the last 13 games.”
“If you look at the performance data, we could have easily won six or seven of those games, but we didn’t. It’s the results that matter.
“It’s not that they played badly. It’s not like the wheels came off and everything suddenly went wrong. They’ve had some tough games. They played Ipswich twice and lost both times. They had some difficult away games like Preston. It wasn’t easy.
“If you told Frank Lampard, the players and the fans that after 31 games they would be second in the league, they would have accepted. The concern comes from how they got there. They went from looking invincible to looking a bit vulnerable. It affects confidence and belief more than anything.”
“They have shown resilience before and they have to do it again. That’s what will be tested in the league season: quality, resilience, team depth and mentality. Only if we tick those boxes can we get promoted.”
“Confidence is an issue within the team.”
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The Sky Sports Essential EFL podcast takes stock of Coventry City’s poor performance in their promotion bid.
You always felt at the beginning of the season that Coventry were going to win. Even if the opponent didn’t have the momentum, he had the belief that he would always come back and score a goal.
They won five games in November, coming from behind to win three times, scoring the winning goal late in one game, and scoring two late goals in the other, winning 4-2 despite losing an early lead.
Now they look more vulnerable.
“Confidence is definitely an issue,” Curtis Davies said on the Sky Sports Essential EFL Podcast. “They’re still winning just over two points per game, which is great and normally they’d be in the promotion range, but it’s just that because of their start and the way they’re doing now, they’re hard to beat.”
“It’s always better to end a season well than to start it well. Even if we don’t make the playoffs, we need to play with confidence and momentum. When you look back and think that we were once 15 points behind third place and now we’re in the playoffs, that’s a hard thing to take.”
“We still have a long way to go, with 15 games left. We need to get back to winning ways as soon as possible.”
Clash against Middlesbrough on Monday night
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The Sky Sports Essential EFL Podcast panel takes a look at Coventry vs. Middlesbrough.
Perfect timing on a Monday night. Coventry falter, Middlesbrough dominate. All eyes will be on CBS Arena.
Kim Helberg’s Boro are on a six-game winning streak and have won 10 of their 14 games since taking over. His last match before the start of his term was Coventry’s win at Riverside in November, which he watched from the stands.
“The important thing is whether Coventry can cope,” Hinchcliffe added. “They have only lost one game at home to Ipswich. Confidence and belief are very important in football. Winning breeds confidence.
If the game starts to go well, mistakes are made, players are suspended or injured, it hurts you. That’s when experienced players need to step up. It has Matt Grimes and other strong characters. They need to come together because it has consequences.
“Middlesbrough are the best team in the division at the moment. They’ll get on CBS and attack Coventry like they attack everyone. Why change when they’ve risen to the top? The question is whether Coventry can keep them at bay and rediscover the attacking belief of the first 18 games.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Coventry win because they have the ability, but they have to make it happen. Middlesbrough forced this issue to the top and now it’s up to Coventry to do the same. It’s the biggest game of the season at the top.”
“It feels like it’s make or break.”
Coventry won and returned to the top of the table. My confidence and belief have definitely returned. The fate of defeat and promotion is out of their own hands. Ipswich sit five points below them and they will have two games in hand at that point.
“If your confidence is a little fragile, playing a team right above you can feel like the difference between winning and losing,” Davis said. “If we win, we’re level on points. If we lose, we could be six points behind and face Ipswich. That’s where the mentality becomes important.”
“At home they will defend themselves against anyone and they have the players to beat anyone there. It will be interesting to see how Middlesbrough approach that.”
“They can outscore teams, but they can also be more defensive if they need to. Maybe they’ll settle down a little bit and play more in transition and try to get the three points.”
Whatever the result, you can’t help but feel that come early May we will look back on Monday night’s game as a key moment in the promotion race.
