February is the peak month for major snowstorms in the Northeast, and this weekend’s storms could bring that. Or it could just be a minor inconvenience.
Computer models used by meteorologists to make predictions agree that a storm will begin to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. There is a possibility that it will become so strong that it will be classified as a bomb cyclone through Monday.
But the models are split along the exact path of the storm from Sunday to Monday, which will determine things like who gets the snow. A change of just 100 or 200 miles could be the difference between a full-blown nor’easter in large cities across the Northeast with heavy snow and strong winds, or a storm that just brings snow that could delay travel.
There are still a few days left before the storm develops, so we should feel more confident about the storm’s path and impact over the next day or two.
The scenario in action is:
Given recent computer model predictions, this scenario is currently the most likely.
The storm is far enough offshore that it won’t become a major event in most areas.
Still, at least light to moderate snow and strong winds are likely to affect areas from southern New England to the mid-Atlantic region Sunday into Monday. This could include Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington DC.
Locations closer to the coast should give you the best shots if more snow falls.
Snow could extend westward into the Northeast and into the Great Lakes.
Snow in all these areas can slow travel, but should be manageable.
Strong winds and coastal flooding are also possible.
This scenario is possible, but currently a little less likely than the first scenario.
A powerful storm will develop close enough to the northeast coast to have major impacts over a wide area, including from Washington, D.C., to New York and Boston.
Heavy snow and strong winds are expected to continue from Sunday afternoon into Monday, making travel on roads and airports extremely difficult.
In this scenario, significant coastal flooding and coastal erosion are likely to occur.
Although some computer model runs still rely on this scenario, it currently appears to be the least likely outcome.
In this last scenario, the storm moves so far offshore that it has no impact at all.
Another disturbance could still bring snow and showers to the Great Lakes and Northeast, but impacts should be minimal.
Bottom line: This level of track uncertainty is common in the days before a potential East Coast storm, so it’s best to keep checking the forecast daily until it becomes clearer.
A similar scenario played out in late January, with some computer models showing a winter storm bringing heavy snow across the Northeast, but the system remaining offshore and only scraping away at southeastern New England.
