Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the weekend card of Premier League fixtures.
Aston Villa vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leeds on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet is a bet that makes plenty of appeal.
Why? Because Villa without Boubacar Kamara are a completely different animal.
Since the start of the 23/24 Premier League season, when Kamara plays, Villa concede just 1.1 goals per game and win 61 per cent of their matches. That’s top-four calibre output. He offers such structure, control and protection for the back four. Everything flows through that defensive midfield screen.
Take him out of the equation and the drop-off is dramatic.
Without Kamara, Villa are conceding 1.7 goals per game and their win rate tumbles to 42 per cent. That’s not a marginal dip, that’s the difference between a Champions League-chasing side and one operating at mid-table levels.
He is the glue that keeps Villa’s shape so compact. Without him, they are easier to play against.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Igor Thiago is a striker that makes those that like to combine bets using the BuildABet function sit up and take notice.
He’s a chaos merchant. The type defenders hate playing against as he’s an elite finisher but someone who puts himself about too. Goals, fouls, bookings – it’s all part of the package.
This exact combination of him scoring, committing two fouls and being carded has landed in two of his last six starts. That’s a 33 per cent strike-rate for a 10/1 shot. From a pure numbers perspective, that is a nice edge to attack at a juicy price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Igor Thiago to score, commit +2 fouls & be carded (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea at 2/9 with Sky Bet which tells you everything about how this match is expected to play out.
The betting edge sits with Joao Pedro at Evens to score.
Since the arrival of Liam Rosenior, there’s been a noticeable shift in how Chelsea’s central striker is being used. Rosenior has a track record of improving attacking output from key players, giving them clarity of role and trust. Strikers thrive on rhythm and responsibility. Joao Pedro currently has both.
Four goals in his last five Premier League games is showing a period of sustained form. His shot volume is healthy, his touches in the box are up and he’s operating as the clear focal point rather than drifting in and out of games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Joao Pedro to score (Evens with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Andoni Iraola and the Bournemouth hierarchy are doing remarkable things. Every key metric in their performance and results output is up since they sold their best player in Antoine Semenyo six games ago.
They are the new Brighton when it comes to recruitment. They have such a great way of finding players that can play Iraola’s high-intensity, vertical and aggressive without the ball style and then make the next step up in terms of development.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in all 12 Premier League games this season against teams currently 12th or lower and Iraola has never lost against a Nuno Espirito Santo team in five meetings, winning on aggregate 12-6. There is plenty of juice taking the Cherries on the draw no bet option at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth draw no bet (Evens with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm
Nick Woltemade playing central midfield. It looks wrong. It feels wrong. And yet it works.
This positional change from centre forward to part of the midfield three does bring some excellent betting opportunities whilst the props market are slow to adjust their lines.
Since dropping deeper into the heart of the midfield, Woltemade has been racking up the foul involvements at a higher rate than his usual output. In both his starts at Aston Villa and Qarabag he’s made three foul involvements (fouls won and fouls committed). It’s 13/10 to land again with Sky Bet. A cracking price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s nothing quite as powerful in football betting as narrative meeting numbers.
Jorgen Strand Larsen facing former club Wolves for his new employers Crystal Palace? That’s the sort of angle that gets the juices flowing.
The 25/1 on offer with Sky Bet for him to score and be carded is one of those prices that makes you double take. A player with a point to prove is a dangerous one.
We often see ex-players start these fixtures at full throttle. Emotion creeps in and emotion can lead to bookings. If he scores, the celebration could boil over. Both bets could land in one action. And they still have a chance of landing at separate points in the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen to score and to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you’re looking at the straight win price on Liverpool at 4/5 away to Nottingham Forest, I’m with you.
Yet sometimes the sharper play isn’t just backing the obvious outcome, it’s backing the pattern that comes with it. Liverpool to win to nil at 23/10 looks a far more rewarding angle. When Liverpool win, they tend to shut the door. There’s very little ‘we’ll outscore you 3-2’ about their recent victories, especially in matches where the market expects them to take care of business.
All seven of their recent wins against teams they went off 4/5 or shorter to beat away from home were achieved to nil. When they dominate these types of fixtures, they control territory, limit transitions and squeeze the life out of opponents. It’s the Arne Slot way.
Zoom out further and nine of their last 11 victories overall have been to nil, too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Sunderland vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is one of those ultra-condensed markets where you could make a case for all three outcomes without really convincing yourself on any of them. The win prices are tight, hovering around the 17/10 mark for both and the handicap lines are cautious.
When that happens, the draw often becomes the value simply because it’s the biggest price of the three.
At 23/10, you’re being paid more for an outcome that fits the shape of the game. Sunderland at home are very competitive, well-drilled and rarely blown away. Fulham are organised, tactically mature and comfortable playing in tight margins away from home. These two may just cancel one another out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Lots on the line with a backdrop of pure tension in the air. Tottenham are too big at 5/1 for the victory but the best bet revolves around cards.
The last 13 meetings have produced 5.3 yellows per game and I’d expect that average to be hit but the market has that covered.
So, heading to the player cards is advisable.
Martin Zubimendi is where my money is going at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Zubimendi is a cynical player that does tend to get himself caught short in transition or talk his way into trouble in big atmospheres. He’s been carded away at Liverpool, Sunderland and Chelsea – and three times in the Champions League already this season.
His direct opponent here in Xavi Simons is another reason to get involved. He’s an outstanding drawer of fouls and cards. And makes challenges look worse than they are, which is a key trait to when looking for value in card match-ups.
If you run his cards drawn data in league matches across the last three seasons, he’s drawn 37 cards off opponents from just over 4,000 minutes of action. That’s a card drawn every 108 minutes – almost one a game. Elite level skullduggery.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Martin Zubimendi to be carded (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Manchester United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Harry Maguire to be fouled at 5/6 with Sky Bet looks a cracking angle to attack.
Since breaking back into the United starting XI, this is a bet that’s quietly been printing. He’s been fouled in each of his last five starts, winning seven fouls in total across those matches. He attacks first contact aggressively, steps into midfield with the ball and isn’t shy about putting his body between opponent and possession. When you play that way, contact follows.
His likely direct opponent, Thierno Barry, averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes. That’s a forward who engages, presses hard and doesn’t mind leaving a foot in when chasing back.
