On February 26, 2026, the Iranian negotiating delegation departs for the negotiating venue with the United States in Geneva, Switzerland.
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs |Wana |via Reuters
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Alaghushi said the latest round of talks between the US and Iran had not resulted in a breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to extend the talks, calling them the “most intense yet”.
“We have made further progress in our diplomatic engagement with the United States,” Araghchi said, adding that the two countries intend to work in a more “detailed” manner on important issues such as the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran and “nuclear-related measures.”
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who is mediating the talks, said the two countries made “significant progress” in high-stakes talks in Geneva, Switzerland, and agreed to meet in Vienna next week to discuss technical details.
Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump said that Iran wants a “deal” even more than the US, but that Iran’s refusal to commit not to develop nuclear weapons remains a key obstacle to a deal.
“They (Iran) want a deal, but they haven’t heard the secret word that we will never have nuclear weapons,” President Trump said in his State of the Union address earlier this week.
Tensions continued to rise as the United States built a major military presence in the Middle East, with President Trump warning last week that “bad things” would happen if Iran did not agree to a deal over the future of its nuclear program.
The third round of talks this week was led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, with Araghchi leading the Iranian delegation.
The Wall Street Journal reported early Friday that the U.S. team had made tough demands on Iran, including destroying its three main nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan and handing over all remaining enriched uranium to the United States, demands Iranian officials have opposed.
The team also called for the nuclear deal to last forever and for there to be no so-called sunset clause, the newspaper reported, citing unnamed US officials.
From nuclear development to ballistic missiles
Iran’s nuclear program is at the heart of the negotiations, and the United States is also pressuring Iran to curb its ballistic missile program. However, the Iranian government has maintained its right to enrich uranium domestically, saying it is necessary for energy production.
Just before recent talks in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s reluctance to discuss developing intercontinental ballistic missiles was a significant obstacle.
The Trump administration also called on Iran to end its support for regional armed groups and end its crackdown on protesters inside the country.
Analysts have warned that if the two countries fail to reach a meaningful breakthrough, military conflict could erupt in the region, causing turmoil across the Middle East and in oil markets.
“If there is no diplomatic breakthrough in the coming days, the United States risks sliding into a military conflict with the potential for serious escalation,” said Michael Hanna, director of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
Hanna also noted that the priorities of the US government, which is pressing Iran with an extensive list of demands, remain unclear: “It is unclear whether the government itself has a fixed idea of a desired end point.”
One of Iran’s priorities in the talks is lifting sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy, triggered a currency crisis and sparked widespread protests against the Islamic Republic in December.
The outcome of this week’s indirect talks will be key to the direction of oil prices, as traders weigh potential supply concerns if hostilities escalate.
WTI futures It fell 35 cents, or 0.24%, on Friday to $64.97 per barrel. brent Crude oil futures fell 38 cents, or 0.30%, to $70.54 per barrel.
“Markets may hold off on fully reacting until the scale of U.S. action against Iran becomes clearer,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Bank, predicting that a “short-term, targeted” attack that bypassed energy infrastructure, like the one seen last June, with limited retaliation from Iran could lead to a short-term spike in oil prices.
However, if long-term actions by the US government are combined with more aggressive retaliation by the Iranian government, oil prices are likely to remain high due to supply risks.
Traders will also be keeping an eye on OPEC+’s decision on April oil production this weekend.
“If we see a easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially if OPEC+ resumes supply increases starting in April, weaker fundamentals should be reflected in lower flat prices, which we think could result in a deal later this week,” Patterson said.
