Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight on the entire weekend’s Premier League card.
Bournemouth v Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Bournemouth have expected around 1.64 goals per 90 in their last 10 games, but this is not sustainable if they have ambitions of finishing the season strong. It’s not just speculative potshots, it’s giving up big, high-probability opportunities too easily. West Ham wasted the equivalent of 3.25 goals last weekend by failing to break through Bournemouth’s defence.
The market is heavily tilted towards the hosts, but if Bournemouth continue to concede chances at an xGA clip like this, they will be punished. Sunderland don’t need to dominate for 90 minutes. They just need a moment. And they can produce them in even numbers on offer in the double chance market.
Score prediction: 1-2
Burnley v Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Burnley’s recent defensive adjustments have seen Josh Laurent firmly establish and embrace the right-wing role. He is competitive, on the front foot and happy to get involved early. But there’s a fine line between aggression and lack of discipline, and Laurent has been teetering along that line for weeks.
The five reservations for 2026 tell their own story. That’s a dangerous habit when you’re up against Brentford straight-runner Kevin Shade. Winger is a walking booking magnet. Since the start of last season, he has been responsible for showing yellow cards to 14 opposition players. He attacks defenders, shifts the ball quickly and forces rash decisions. If you stray from that even a little bit, or get a little too enthusiastic, you’re going to have problems. Laurent is 3/1 with Sky Bet on the card.
Score prediction: 1-2
Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – Play SUPER 6!
Liverpool are short of players. It’s very short. And I’m not sure the recent performance fully justifies the 4/11 by Sky Bet.
Yes, they got the job done at Nottingham Forest, but the performance was a disaster. They won by a narrow margin, but on the other day they dropped points and were eliminated. Arne Slot’s controlled approach is clear. These include planned reinforcement, territorial control, and reduction of chaos. But when you solve the madness, you run the risk of also solving the spark. Sometimes they come dangerously close to infertility.
And when West Ham break, they break with purpose.
Jarrod Bowen remains one of the most efficient transition forwards in the league, direct, smart with his movements, and ruthless when the opportunity presents itself. Crysensio Summerville adds explosive acceleration and unpredictability, allowing you to turn defense into offense in seconds. West Ham need a win, so it makes perfect sense to bet on a dramatic away win at 6/1 Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-2
Newcastle vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Once Newcastle get into a rhythm at home, much of their best work comes down the left. Lewis Hall has really grown into the role and is quietly picking up tricks that punters should keep an eye on. Since December, he has committed 2.27 fouls per 90 points. This is reproducible behavior. He’s becoming one of the players best at moving the ball quickly, inviting contact, and selling fouls when they come.
Iliman Ndiaye will be playing against Hall repeatedly, but for a player who averages more than two fouls per game in that zone, Sky Bet’s calculation of him committing more than two fouls at 6/4 starts to make sense.
Score prediction: 2-1
Leeds vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Everyone automatically looks to Erling Haaland for goals. But the more sensible angle at this point might be his creativity. Creative output has increased dramatically.
In the first 18 league games of the 2025 season, they created just 10 chances from open play.
He has already scored 10 goals in just nine league games in 2026.
And in terms of recent performance, he has six assists in the last 17 games.
A more rounded Haaland is expected to take part in the build-up. He’s rolling the ball into the six-yard box. He’s slipping a runner behind him.
Haaland’s assist price of 7/2 on Sky Bet will be interesting as the market expects City to score two goals.
Score prediction: 1-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Elliott Anderson has been pushed further forward under new manager Vitor Pereira, and the player himself acknowledged that the message was clear: more end product, more presence in the final third and, importantly for us, more shots.
Music to the ears of everyone who plays in the player prop market.
Taking into account super sub concessions, he has taken 17 shots in the last four games. For players who were often deployed deep early in the season, tasked with connecting plays rather than finishing them, the market’s shot pricing algorithms have lagged behind this positional adjustment.
The line of 11/8 on Sky Bet over 2 shots feels like it’s based on Anderson’s old role rather than his new role.
Score prediction: 1-2
Fulham v Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Tottenham are now 5/1 away from becoming a Championship side next season, with relegation alarms ringing.
There are 11 matches left and real money matches. We are no longer talking about the unthinkable. We are discussing plausibility.
they are in great danger.
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Sky Sports’ Michael Bridge is at Tottenham Hotspur’s training ground to recap Igor Tudor’s Premier League press conference
And what everyone associated with the club should be most concerned about is not just the result, but the identity crisis. They seem torn between philosophy and style. There are injury situations where serious injuries have occurred. And when the pressure mounts, there is no response so far.
Fulham have won all five of their matches against bottom five teams in the Premier League this season. They have also won their last two Premier League games against Spurs.
And this is the important point. Fulham know exactly who they are. Structured. Be aggressive at the right moments. Stay calm and own it. That’s huge against a team that is in the bottom three at home.
Do Spurs have the stamina to withstand this? mental? scrap? Because right now all the fundamental indicators say no. Fulham at evens with Sky Bet looks good to me.
Score prediction: 3-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This is one of the dates where Manchester United could have a big advantage by being outside Europe. Oliver Glasner developed a very clear pattern. When you have a knockout game in Europe, everything goes into it. The dial is turned up emotionally, tactically and physically. What’s the problem? The ensuing league games often pay the price.
In their last eight league games following the midweek knockout match, Glasner’s team has lost six, drawn one and won just once. And even last weekend’s win against the Wolves brought more than a semblance of good fortune. A small margin worked out.
They will now face Manchester United, who are starting to find their rhythm. Their offensive play had an additional purpose. If Manchester United wins by more than two points on Sky Bet on 11/8, we will get a price that does not fully take into account the post-European turmoil expected from Palace.
Score prediction: 4-0
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The game is one of just two for Arsenal against opponents currently in the top six in the Premier League. The other is a trip to Manchester City in April.
Chelsea tend to play on when faced with important matches, but Arsenal’s defensive process is too reliable to ignore when assessing the cost of this fixture. Arsenal’s basic process continues to be the best in the league, with a fair way of conceding goals due to mistakes and low-probability shots that go in from a distance.
The last goal conceded inside the box in a Premier League opener match that was not due to individual error was to Ollie Watkins against Aston Villa on 30 December. This was nine games ago.
They haven’t conceded a well-constructed and carved-out goal in that time. That’s elite defensive control. The classic bet that Arsenal will win within 3.5 goals on Sky Bet on 11/8 has been successful in seven of the last 11 home Premier League games, but there is a good chance of success.
