F1’s new era of regulations finally begins in earnest in Melbourne from Friday, with the Australian Grand Prix kicking off the 24-race season, but it seems no one is yet sure what will happen.
This winter saw the most extensive rule changes in the history of the sport, with revisions to both cars and engines, creating new challenges for teams, new demands on drivers in the cockpit and opportunities to be more competitive on the track.
Each of the 11 teams will have nine days of pre-season track running to take on all-new challengers, but there’s still much to learn and finesse, especially when it comes to energy deployment from the power unit, which for the first time features a nearly 50-50 split of internal combustion and electrical power.
So it’s an unpredictable start to the new campaign for Sky Sports F1’s Martin Brundle when the action begins at Melbourne’s Albert Park.
“This is a dramatic change, the biggest in F1 history and we are right at the beginning of it,” Brundle said.
“The team has to find a way to replenish the battery and make it not dominate the laps so much, but I think they will do that quickly and transition together in terms of charging and how they use power.
“But it’s going to be a little wild at first.
“We’re going to lose reliability, too, much more than we’ve seen in the last few years when the last hybrid engines were really bulletproof, and so were the cars.
“I don’t think you think you’ve won the Grand Prix until you literally see the checkered flag.
“We’ll see a lot of fluctuations, but we’re in a much better situation than we were in 2014, when hybrid engines first appeared, because back then only Mercedes got it right and everyone else was confused.
“This is much closer.”
Who will fight on the front lines?
Testing evidence suggests that the four teams that shared all race wins in the previous rule era – McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari – will once again be competing for victory.
And while the pace advantage of the established ‘big four’ over the others certainly appears to have grown since the end of last season, it remains difficult to place the top four teams in Melbourne’s definitive pecking order.
Brundle said of the spread of lap times up and down the grid: “The rule change spread the pack a little bit, but this was unavoidable and is actually guaranteed.”
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Craig Slater and Martin Brundle review and rank all F1 teams after pre-season testing
“But from everyone I’ve talked to and from what I’ve observed, the usual top four teams – Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull – look very close, even though each uses three different power units in different ways.
“They put in a lot of laps in testing and the reliability looked good.
“Then there is a bit of a gap between us and the midfield, which itself looks very close, but then some guys are struggling at the back.”
Testing doesn’t always reveal the complete picture.
“Remember, we’ve been to Barcelona where it was freezing cold and Bahrain where it was very hot,” he warned.
“Now we’re going to Melbourne, which has a completely different circuit layout, so frankly all bets are off.”
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Martin Brundle and Bernie Collins discuss Aston Martin’s position ahead of the start of the 2026 F1 season
And regardless of the standings at Albert Park this week and the second round in China next week, Brundle expects the situation to remain fluid in the opening months of the season.
“This is going to be an incredibly changeable year,” predicted the Sky F1 commentator.
“We’re seeing teams jumping over each other. It’s not like you’re going to get a little bang for your buck with upgrades here and there. Packages are going to come throughout the year, especially in the first half of the year. Teams are going to start jumping over each other when they really find a piece of time.”
Who is the likely candidate for the title?
At least as far as the bookmakers are concerned, Mercedes are the favorites to win both the opening race and the 2026 world championship title.
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Martin Brundle believes George Russell has the confidence to fight for the title if the car allows
That position is clearly based in part on the widely held and long-held belief that the Silver Arrows, who enjoyed several seasons of absolute dominance when the engine rules were last reviewed in 2014, are poised to thrive in a new era, and on the fact that their new W17 car made a justifiable impression during testing.
Mercedes senior driver George Russell is the favorite for the drivers’ championship for the first time.
“There’s no one I trust more than George. I like his approach to racing,” Brundle said of the 28-year-old Briton, who is preparing for his eighth season in F1.
“He trained hard at Williams for years, but when they stopped dominating he moved to Mercedes and kept his head down. He’s the team’s No. 1.
“I think his teammate Kimi Antonelli will also have a great season, but George has all the confidence he needs to win races and go for the championship if possible.”
But while Russell is confident he is “ready” to win the title, Brundle believes the championship outlook is by no means clear-cut.
“I think Ferrari is strong. I think both Ferrari drivers Lewis (Hamilton) and Charles (Leclerc) are strong,” added Brundle, whose team’s SF-26 car also impressed during testing.
“I think both McLaren drivers will be equally strong.
“Oscar (Piastri) will come back on the mission after what he learned last year. Lando (Norris), I don’t think I’ve seen him with a big smile on his face so far this year. He just has the peace of mind of being world champion now.”
“Red Bull looks really strong and we know how good Max (Verstappen’s) car control will be, which is needed in these cars.
“So, for me, I don’t have a clear favorite.”
What will happen to the race gong and which drivers will be active?
While the early stages of F1’s new ruleset are expected to widen the field spread, Brundle is optimistic that the new generation of cars will help foster closer and potentially innovative wheel-to-wheel racing as drivers and teams deploy different energy management tactics.
While some of the grid’s leading names have criticized aspects of the new car and its complexity, Brundle believes this will not prevent the grid’s most enthusiastic operators from finding the best way to maximize their grid’s performance and gain an advantage over their rivals on track.
“I think we’ll lose a bit of the David and Goliath element at first, but I think we’ll see some good racing and we’ll see some unconventional overtaking,” he said.
“You’re going to see cars that initially overtake in very unusual places using different charging and deployment strategies, and drivers are going to have to really fight to keep the cars on the road, especially towards the end of the tire life. They’re going to have to drive the tires seriously.”
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McLaren’s Oscar Piastri became ‘stuck’ on track before Lewis Hamilton made his practice start again in a Ferrari.
“Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna would have loved the opportunity of these cars.
“I remember Senna fiddling with the throttle like a musical instrument. I remember Senna walking around the circuit with the engineers in 1993 in an active car, adjusting the active suspension every five meters. I remember Schumacher pressing the brake with his left foot and playing the steering wheel, differential and brake bias like a musical instrument again.”
“Whatever tools the great drivers have had over the years, they’ve gotten better at using them.
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Sky Sports F1’s David Croft takes a closer look at how F1 will evolve in 2026 as the sport begins a new recharging era featuring more power, new teams and engine suppliers
“I think any sensible driver, whether they like these cars or not, and whatever they think about this phase of these new regulations, will think, ‘This is what we’ve got’ and how to make the most of these numerous, albeit complex, tools.
“I think smart drivers with the right attitude really shine in the beginning.”
Sky Sports F1 Australian GP Schedule
Thursday, March 5th
3am: Driver press conference
6am: Paddock uncut
9:45pm: F3 practice
10:55pm: F2 practice
Friday, March 6th
1am: Australian GP Practice 1 (Session starts at 1:30am)*
2:55am: F3 Qualifying*
3:30am: Team boss press conference
3:50am: F2 Qualifying*
4:35am: Australian GP Practice 2 (session starts at 5am)*
6:15am: F1 Show*
Saturday, March 7th
0.10am: F3 sprint*
1:10am: Australian GP Practice 3 (session starts at 1:30am)*
3:05am: F2 Sprint*
4:10am: Australian GP qualifying build-up*
5am: Australian Grand Prix Qualifying*
7am: Ted’s Qualification Notebook*
9:45pm: F3 Feature Race*
Sunday, March 8th
12:20am: F2 Feature Race*
2:30am: Preparation for Australian Grand Prix: Grand Prix Sunday*
4am: Australian Grand Prix*
6am: Australian Grand Prix reaction: Checkered flag*
7am: Ted’s Notes*
7.55am: Australian GP race replay*
10am: Australian GP Highlights (also on Sky One)*
*Also held at Sky Sports Main Event
Watch every race of the 2026 F1 season live on Sky Sports, including the Australian Grand Prix from March 6-8. Stream Sky Sports now – cancel anytime with no contract
