Tuesday is the first crucial moment of the 2026 midterm elections. Today marks the end of the first round of voting to begin the seven-month primary election that will determine who wins the House and Senate seats on Election Day, Nov. 3.
It seems likely that Democrats will win the House of Representatives and Republicans will hold onto the Senate, but much will depend on the results of the primaries leading up to the big day. Here are the five early elections taking place on Tuesday, showing what the rest of the elections will look like:
1. Texas Senate Republican Primary
Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas.
Getty Images
Republican Sen. John Cornyn is trying to hold on to his seat in a competitive primary against two challengers: State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt, who represents a Houston-area district.
Most polls show Paxton as the front-runner, even though Senate Republicans and establishment donors have poured tens of millions of dollars into Cornyn’s race. His track record of opposing President Joe Biden and supporting President Donald Trump has made him a favorite of the MAGA crowd, with support from Turning Point USA, an influential group founded by Charlie Kirk.
But a Paxton victory in the primary would mean Republicans would likely need to pump millions more into the state to win in November. Paxton has been plagued by scandal. He was in the middle of an acrimonious divorce, impeached by the Texas House of Representatives on corruption charges and charged with securities fraud.
Trump has not announced his support in the election campaign. During a visit to Corpus Christi, Texas, on Friday, he had words of praise for both Cornyn and Paxton, calling them “both great people.” He also mentioned Hunt.
The more money Republicans have to spend defending Texas in general, the less money they will have in other battleground states.
Mr. Hunt also portrays himself as a more conservative choice than Mr. Cornyn. Hunt is not expected to win, but the primary could move into a May 26 runoff if no candidate receives a majority of votes.
2. Texas Senate Democratic Primary
State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat from Texas and a candidate for the U.S. Senate, shakes hands during a debate at the 2026 Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention in Georgetown, Texas, U.S. on Saturday, January 24, 2026. State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat from Texas and a candidate for the U.S. Senate, exits and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Democrat from Texas and a candidate for the U.S. Senate, shakes hands during a debate.
Bob Damrich | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Democrats are hoping this will be the year they win statewide races in Texas, but those odds could depend on who wins the primary.
The race between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico is getting tighter. Although both have similar positions on this issue, their styles are very different.
Crockett, a civil rights lawyer, is known as a flame monger for his combative comebacks and fiery messages. She is popular with Democratic voters who want to see the party do more to fight the Trump administration, and she appeals to both Black voters and progressive voters. Recent polls show each in the lead.
Mr. Talarico, a former schoolteacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has taken a much more measured approach, appealing to independents and moderate Republicans with a message of unity. His speeches sound like sermons, mixing progressive values with Bible verses.
The winner of the primary could indicate what electoral strategy the Democratic Party will adopt in 2028.
3. Texas 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary
State Rep. Steve Toth (left) and incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw.
Getty Images
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw is fending off a challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth in a race that will test how well an incumbent with staunch conservative credentials can fend off challengers from the party’s MAGA wing.
Crenshaw is the only Republican House incumbent in the March 3 primary who does not have Trump’s support. Mr. Crenshaw voted for Mr. Trump on every major issue, but he has clashed with Mr. Trump on issues such as support for Ukraine and opposing Mr. Trump’s false claim that he won the 2020 election.
Toth also has support from the House Freedom Caucus and Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. But Mr. Crenshaw has out-spent and out-spent Mr. Toth and is backed by the official campaign arm of House Republicans.
4. North Carolina 4th House Democratic Primary
Nida Allam (left) and Congresswoman Valerie Fouchie
Reuters | Getty Images
In North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a primary challenge from County Commissioner Nida Alam. Mr. Alam has criticized Mr. Houthi for not doing enough to oppose Mr. Trump’s policies and for receiving money from pro-Israel AIPAC in past elections.
Arum lost to the Houthis in 2022, but the district was then redrawn.
Mr. Houshie has received support from key Democratic politicians and groups, including Gov. Roy Cooper, the Congressional Black Caucus, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Arum has been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and by Leaders We Deserve, a group backed by progressive activist David Hogg, which supports Democratic challengers. She has also received donations from American Priorities, a counterpart to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The race will also be an early test for Public Action First, an AI regulation advocacy group that counts Anthropic among its donors. The group’s Democratic wing donated to the Houthis.
5. Texas 23rd Congressional District Republican Primary
Congressman Tony Gonzalez (R-Texas), chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, participates in the group’s press conference on Tuesday, March 25, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol.
Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call Inc. | Getty Images
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez has been embroiled in a scandal after Gonzalez’s local newspaper, the San Antonio Express-News, reported text messages from an aide alleging he had an affair with Gonzalez, who later died by suicide.
The texts said Gonzalez was pressuring staff member Regina Santos-Aviles to take “sexy photos.”
Gonzalez will face several challengers, including Youtube personality Brandon Herrera, who came close to defeating Gonzalez in 2024.
Depending on the outcome of the primary election, Gonzalez may decide to resign from Congress, but he has resisted doing so so far. If Republicans want to pass a bill on a party-line vote, they can only lose one vote in the House. That means Gonzalez’s resignation will make it more difficult for House Speaker Mike Johnson to hold together a fragile majority.
