It is clear that the recent US-Israel-Iran war will fundamentally change Middle East politics. The direct implications for US politics, particularly the 2026 midterm elections and the sustainability of US support for Israel, are less clear.
The core of U.S. President Donald Trump’s support base has expressed support for a joint U.S.-Israel attack, but some influential figures on the U.S. right wing have condemned this. These accusations exacerbate already existing tensions within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base and dovetail with conservative concerns about Israeli influence over U.S. foreign policy.
With the mid-term elections approaching, this is not the time for intra-party divisions. Conflicts among conservatives over the war with Iran and broad support for Israel could hurt the Republican Party in November.
The stakes for Republicans are high. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate are on the ballot, with Republicans currently controlling both chambers. Control of Congress will determine whether President Trump’s policies move forward, how strongly the Democratic majority can control the White House through oversight, and how secure Israel’s position in Washington is.
“Israel War” and MAGA’s opposition
In the days leading up to Saturday’s first attack, influential right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson, a leading critic of Israeli influence over the U.S. government, repeatedly warned against military escalation.
On Thursday’s show, broadcast to tens of millions of social media followers, Carlson argued that Israel was pushing the United States into the conflict to ensure absolute supremacy in the Middle East.
On Monday night, Carlson commented on the early stages of the war, doubling down on his pre-war analysis, calling the war “Israel’s war” and claiming that it simply “happened because Israel wanted it to happen.”
Other prominent conservatives have also criticized the war. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X that the strikes were “killing[Iranian]children” and contradicted the idea of ”America First.”
Conservative commentator Candace Owens has posted more than a dozen times claiming that Israel has induced the United States into fighting.
The views of Carlson, Green and Owens are important. The three have tens of millions of social media followers and represent influential voices within the MAGA movement. Their criticism signals a widening rift over Republican policy programs.
Influential MAGA figures, including Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh, and the Hodge Twins, have also condemned the war as a betrayal of “America First” principles.
One of the undercurrents of recent conservative criticism is the claim that President Trump’s decision to go to war contradicts the core principles of MAGA. To make this point, right-wing commentators have revived old statements and social media posts by Trump administration officials, including President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
For example, President-elect Trump said in 2016 that under his leadership the United States would “…cease the race to overthrow foreign regimes.” Trump also suggested in numerous tweets in 2012 and 2013 that then-President Barack Obama would attack Iran to distract from domestic issues, step up his re-election effort, or make up for his poor poll numbers.
In 2023, Vance lamented the U.S. invasion of Iraq as a “disaster” and said that America’s “foreign policy is still being held hostage…(Who) will support the next war and the next war until (the country) is hollowed out.” In 2024, Vance denounced the idea of war with Iran.
In both 2016 and 2020, Gabbard slammed “warmongers.” “An all-out war with Iran would make the wars we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic,” Gabbard said in a 2020 interview.
By surfacing these archival statements, critics are arguing that war with Iran is not only wrong, but violates the ideological commitments on which the MAGA coalition was founded.
a divided party
Even before the Iran war, the Republican Party was more divided than at any point in recent history. For the better part of two years, Carlson, Owens, Greene and many others have criticized Republican policies toward Israel and the Palestinians. The decision to go to war with Iran, ostensibly on Israel’s behalf, further widened the divide.
Some conservatives, including influential white supremacist Nick Fuentes, are so angry that they are proposing to vote Democrat instead of Republican in the midterm elections.
If these claims gain traction, they could jeopardize the Republican Party’s prospects in the midterm elections.
Recent polling suggests Republicans have reason to be concerned.
According to a Reuters poll conducted after the military operation began, only about a quarter of Americans support President Trump’s decision to go to war. Perhaps even more worrying for Trump is that only 55% of his supporters are Republicans. This is a significantly lower number, especially compared to the more than 90 percent Republican approval rating for President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
All of this is important because historically midterm elections have served as a referendum on the sitting president and his party. All members of the House face a vote every two years, and the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterm election cycle, especially if the president’s approval rating falls below 50 percent. President Trump’s approval rating has hovered between 36% and 38%, but he recently became the first president in history to have an approval rating below 50% during both his first term and the first year of his second term.
Even before the war with Iran, early electoral barometers favored Democrats. In 2025, Democratic candidates racked up a series of victories, sweeping the gubernatorial race and winning local races in a variety of areas, providing important midterm momentum.
changing political landscape
Iran could become the latest battleground in a broader shift in U.S. public opinion toward Israel.
For decades, Americans have been far more sympathetic to Israelis than to Palestinians. Between 2001 and 2018, Gallup polls gave Israelis an average 43 percent advantage.
But last week, a Gallup poll suggested that for the first time in American history, Americans have more sympathy for Palestinians than Israelis.
Importantly, this change was driven primarily by a shift in Republican sympathies. Since 2024, support for Israel among Republicans has declined by 10 percent.
This is critical because Republican voters have long formed the backbone of support for Israel in the United States. If Republican support wanes, Israel’s unique protection in U.S. politics could weaken with it.
As the dust settles on the war with Iran, many Americans may come to view the conflict through the same lens as Carlson, Owens, Greene and others, as a war waged on Israel’s behalf.
That perception will solidify if the war is long and costly, as President Trump hinted Monday that it might be.
Therefore, the 2026 midterm elections could serve not only as a referendum on Trump and the Republican Party, but also on the “special relationship” between the United States and Israel.
President Trump has called himself “the best friend Israel ever had.” Although he may believe he is helping an old friend, a war waged to achieve Israel’s absolute regional hegemony could paradoxically weaken the support of its most important source of power, the United States.
If the Republican Party’s division over Iran leads to a defeat in Congress, the impact will be far beyond just President Trump’s policies. If Congress is reshuffled due to voter backlash, it may become less reflexively supportive of pro-Israel policies.
Israel’s genocide in Gaza has already transformed U.S. public opinion toward Israel and distorted the base of U.S. support in previously unthinkable ways. A war against Iran could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, not just for President Trump’s party but also for the political consensus that has long guaranteed U.S. support for Israel.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
