Aston Villa manager Unai Emery was “dreaming” of the Premier League title just a few weeks ago, but now faces a “cup final”-like match against Chelsea on Wednesday.
Just five games ago, Villa were on top of their game, level on points with second-placed Man City and leaders Arsenal, four places behind.
But after a disastrous February in which they won just one of their five league games, an unconvincing late win at home to Brighton, Emery’s side have now slipped to fourth place, with both Liverpool and Chelsea within striking distance heading into the final 10 games of the season.
Liverpool currently sit in fifth place, three points behind Villa, and Chelsea are in sixth place, three points behind.
“I was nervous in September and the aim was to stay in the Premier League,” Emery said after Villa lost 2-0 to Wolves on Friday Night Football, giving the Midlands rivals their second league win of the season.
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“We were very happy and excited to secure a top-five spot in December and qualify for the Champions League.
“A month ago, I was dreaming that maybe we would win the Premier League. Now we are in an average position to be in the top five. Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, they are trying to reach us. Reaching the Champions League is the priority for them.”
I’m starting to panic about that now. There are some big games coming up for Villa. They now have two absolutely huge games against teams chasing exactly what they want. For now, we can see the villa falling apart.
Lee Hendry talks about Sky Sports
Meanwhile, Chelsea also lost to Arsenal on Sunday in a tight battle for next season’s Champions League, with the Blues slipping out of the top five ahead of Wednesday night’s potentially season-defining trip to Villa Park.
And while new figures released by UEFA show Chelsea will run a £355m budget deficit for the 2024-25 season, the biggest ever for an English football club, it is equally imperative that the West London club compete in Europe’s top club competition next season, given the wealth on offer in the new expanded format.
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According to financial blogger Swiss Rumble, Manchester City and Liverpool have each earned £84m so far this season, Arsenal £83m, Chelsea £80m and Spurs £73m.
So whether Villa and Chelsea qualify for next season’s Champions League, and what factors will influence whether both teams qualify between now and May?
Does finishing in the top five mean a spot in the Champions League?
As it stands, the good news for Villa and Chelsea is that the Premier League is on track to field five teams that will qualify for next season’s Champions League, depending on their league results.
Heading into next week’s last-16 tie in Europe, England still sit at the top of UEFA’s coefficient table with all nine teams in the three competitions.
And while they currently hold a comfortable lead over third-placed Spain, it will take a disastrous series of results similar to what happened to the English club in the quarter-finals two years ago to displace them from the top two.
How is their run-in?
Both Villa and Chelsea will take their fate into their own hands from Wednesday’s head-to-head meeting.
Villa then face Manchester United in a final-day repeat of last May’s trip to Old Trafford that ultimately ended their Champions League hopes, before facing top-five rivals Liverpool at Villa Park on the penultimate weekend and finishing the season with title challengers Man City at the Etihad on the final day.
Aston Villa’s next 5 games:
4 March – Chelsea (h) 12 March – Lille (a) Europa League 15 March – Manchester United (a) 19 March – Lille (h) Europa League 22 March – West Ham (h)
As for Chelsea, they will play back-to-back games at Stamford Bridge in April against Manchester City and United, followed by a trip to Liverpool in May, and these three games will surely decide their Champions League fate.
Chelsea’s next 5 games:
4 March – Villa (a) 7 March – Wrexham (a) – FA Cup 11 March – PSG (a) Champions League 14 March – Newcastle (h) 17 March – PSG (h) Champions League
What does the Opta supercomputer say?
Despite their recent dip in form, Villa still have a nearly 90% chance of finishing in the top five and qualifying for next season’s Champions League, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
But it doesn’t bode well for Liam Rosenior’s side, despite joking that he would like to “see what this supercomputer looks like” ahead of the team’s trip to the Emirates. Their chances of finishing in the top five in May are just 34.4 per cent, significantly lower than Manchester United (82.6 per cent) and Liverpool (79.8 per cent).
How do experts see it?
Sky Sports’ Gary Neville says it is a battle between Chelsea and Villa over the final Champions League spot if England claim five spots next season.
“I hope Villa finish in the top five, I really do,” he said on Gary Neville’s podcast. “I said before that their manager is an experienced and sensible man. Even if they get some players back, injuries to midfield players in recent weeks have cost them.”
“The only question is whether Chelsea or Villa will finish fifth and I think Chelsea will finish fifth. Injuries will be a big factor. Other competitions will also be a big factor. At the moment it is Villa who are in danger. They are vulnerable in terms of Champions League qualification.”
Former Villa midfielder Lee Hendry agrees his former club are currently in serious danger of missing out on a top-five spot.
“Despite their previous run of good form, they had a poor start, but they showed character, they showed belief. We’re not seeing that at the moment. Villa’s record looks terrible,” he told Sky Sports.
“For me, Villa’s season is in jeopardy at the moment. Look at the FA Cup game against Newcastle, it wasn’t good enough and they were eliminated.
“Yes, they are in the next stage of the Europa League, and I am starting to panic now about that. There are some big games coming up for Villa. Now they have two absolutely big games against teams who are chasing exactly what they want. I can see Villa falling apart at the moment.”
“They must be feeling the pressure, they should be. You can do great all season, but this is the important part of the Premier League. We can get through the cracks anyway, but we have to get things going.”
“We’re not seeing anything like that at the moment, and we haven’t seen anything like that in recent weeks, so that’s a concern. So there’s time to worry.
“Manchester United are in great form, Chelsea are in great form, Liverpool are chasing and suddenly Villa are dropping points. Everyone is starting to feel a bit negative and that’s the big problem. Big clubs deal with it, big players deal with it. This is Villa’s position.”
“Not too long ago we were talking about Villa winning the title and now all of a sudden we’re talking about them dropping out of the top five. This would be disastrous for their season.”
Watch Aston Villa vs Chelsea highlights for free on Sky Sports platforms immediately after full time on Wednesday night
