Smoke rises above the skyline in Tehran, Iran, March 3, 2026.
Majid Saidi | Getty Images
Since the United States and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran last weekend, Washington has emphasized that the military action would last only a few weeks and would not result in a so-called “forever war.”
But experts say the US could easily stall Operation Epic Fury and prolong the conflict if the Iranian regime proves more resilient than expected.
“What we’re seeing is going to be more complex than the White House expected,” Suzanne Maloney, deputy director and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Clearly, with the very quick announcement that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed, the beginning of the conflict appeared to be a great success. This was a major advance in many ways, allowing the United States and Israel to inflict untold damage on Iran’s military capabilities.”
“But the next day is also going to be very complicated. I’m not optimistic that this conflict will end anytime soon, because Iran is escalating throughout the region and that’s their long-standing operational plan,” she said.
When airstrikes began last Saturday targeting Iranian leadership and military facilities, and within hours killing Ayatollah Khamenei on his premises, it quickly became clear that the attacks were not a one-and-done affair.
But US President Donald Trump said last week that the military operation in Iran would be over in “four to five weeks,” and senior administration officials from Vice President J.D. Vance to Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth emphasized that this was not a long-term, low-burn-up conflict like those seen in Afghanistan or Iraq.
These so-called “forever wars” have proven controversial and unpopular with the American public, and are particularly frowned upon by President Trump’s MAGA fanbase, who want the president to prioritize domestic policy over foreign policy. A Reuters/IPSOS poll found last week that one in four Americans supported an attack on Iran, sparking protests in Washington against the attack.
WASHINGTON DC, USA – February 28: Demonstrators gathered in front of the White House in Washington DC to protest the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Demonstrators held Iranian and American flags and chanted anti-war slogans during the rally. The demonstration took place in front of the White House, with protesters gathering to voice their opposition to recent military actions. (Photo credit: Celal Gunes/Anadolu, Getty Images)
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Game plan or big gamble?
The United States and Israel initially said their primary objective was to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, but their war objectives appear to have changed this week, with stated objectives ranging from destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program to wanting to protect Americans from an imminent but unspecified Iranian threat.
William Roebuck, a former U.S. ambassador to Bahrain and current executive vice president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, said President Trump will be very wary of public opinion when it comes to operations in Iran.
“This is a risky proposition for him. There is a strong possibility that the economy, which he is very focused on, will be disrupted. This could cause a shock to the energy market. It could also cause a shock to the stock market, which he is very focused on,” Roebuck told CNBC on Wednesday.
“He also hasn’t really advocated the cause in the United States to go into Iran and take this military action. The rationale they’re presenting is a bit disjointed, and polls show that only one in four Americans really understands that rationale and supports it,” Roebuck noted.
“For these reasons, it’s a bit dangerous for his home base,” he said.
One of the biggest unknowns is whether the United States wants to change power in the Islamic Republic after Khamenei’s death, and if so, who or who should replace him as supreme leader.
Hegseth also stressed that the military operation was not aimed at regime change, referring to the death of Ayatollah Khamenei along with other senior officials on Monday, saying: “This is not what you would call a regime change war, but the regime has certainly changed.”
Thorbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said U.S. officials are seeking “a very quick resolution to this conflict,” but as things stand, “we need to be prepared for a potentially protracted conflict.”
“I’ve heard President Trump talk about a four- to five-week operation. But Iran is a huge country with a huge population and a very extensive security apparatus, so it’s going to be very difficult to untangle this issue and move towards some kind of interim solution. But these kinds of talks are probably premature at this stage,” he said.
On Monday, March 2, 2026, television stations will broadcast U.S. President Donald Trump from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Analysts agree that the U.S. strategy or ultimate goal is not clear and it is difficult to determine how long military operations will take. Many liken the current operation in Iran to President Trump’s “bet.”
Experts say that if the goal is regime change, there is a strong possibility that U.S. military presence on the ground in Iran will be necessary, but given the potential impact on public opinion and the Republican administration, there is a good chance that the U.S. government will balk at that commitment.
Malcolm Rifkind, Britain’s former foreign and defense secretary, told CNBC: “There’s no way the US military could be used to invade a country the size of Iran. This is not a small country, it’s a huge country,” and warned: “We’re going to have a situation like Iraq again, but it’s not going to happen.”
There is a possibility of a short war
While there remains a reluctance to get mired in a potentially protracted and bloody ground war, analysts say short-term, targeted military operations are possible, but ultimately it will depend on what President Trump wants and how long the Iranian leadership can withstand the onslaught from the United States and Israel.
Robert Makea, a former British ambassador to Iran, agreed: “A ‘forever war’ is not very likely as Iran does not have the capacity to continue retaliating ‘indefinitely’.”
“The attacks are targeting the launchers, Iranian command. There will come a point where the launches become sporadic and this could subside,” he said.
Charles Myers of Signum Global Advisors said there is only one outcome to this conflict: Iran loses.
“This is not a long-term war, this is not a medium-term war,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “The only outcome here is that Iran loses. Iran is up against two of the most powerful and sophisticated militaries in the world, and Iran will lose this war. The question is, what does losing look like and how long will it take?”
Meyers said he expected the violent portion of the war to be “completed within the next three to four days.”
“And after that, you’re going to start to hear the president of the United States talking about desertion and victory and victory. And from there, I think you’re going to start to see some kind of settlement or agreement being reached…This is not going to be a long-term military operation,” he said.
