Tottenham’s 3-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace on Thursday night further strengthened Tottenham’s relegation fears as their miserable season tilts towards full-blown disaster.
Micky van de Ven’s red card and Crystal Palace’s recent failure to score three goals in 19 minutes of the first half extended their winless run in the league to 11 games. It was the first time in 22 years that they had lost five consecutive games in the Premier League.
Spurs are just one point above the drop zone with their next game scheduled to be at Anfield against Liverpool on Sunday, March 15, live on Sky Sports, as Igor Tudor, who replaced the sacked Thomas Frank, struggles to turn the tide.
How did a season that started so positively come crashing down so dramatically?
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Who among the relegation candidates is most at risk?
Take the fear out of Champions League places
Frank’s tenure deteriorated rapidly, but it started with three wins in four Premier League games. Victories at the Etihad Stadium (remember those?) and the London Stadium made him only the third Spurs manager in history to win their first two away games in the top flight.
On 13 September, Spurs defeated West Ham 3-0, moving them level on points with Arsenal. Arsenal look well placed to end their hopes of winning the Premier League title and add to their rivals’ misery.
While Arsenal began to consolidate their position at the top of the table, Spurs plummeted into the bottom half of the table with a five-game winless streak between November and December.
On 6 December, they won 2-0 against Frank’s former club Brentford, briefly moving them into the top half, but then suffered consecutive defeats to Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. Soon concerns about securing a finish in Europe turned into genuine fears of relegation.
Frank was fired by the Spurs on February 11th at No. 16. Under coach Igor Tudor they remain there, but the gap to the drop zone has narrowed to an isolated point. According to Opta, the chance of relegation has reached a season high of 16%.
After finishing 17th last season, Opta’s statistical odds of Spurs being relegated were 13 per cent in August. Fan anxiety levels have also increased, although many may argue that they are still on the forgiving side after another loss.
The underlying data, consisting of expected goals and expected goals against, suggests that Spurs are exactly where they “should” be based on their level of performance.
Our ‘prediction’ table, based on the Sky Sports xG formula, has relegation rivals West Ham on top. Spurs are level with Wolves on expected points and ahead of Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Burnley in the bottom three.
Injury, violation of discipline, disturbance
Despite taking the lead through Dominic Solanke’s goal, Spurs capitulated against Palace, taking their total conceded from winning positions to 15 this season, raising further questions about mentality and continuing a theme from last season.
Pedro Polo furious at being substituted against Crystal Palace
Since the start of last season, Spurs have conceded 44 points from winning positions, the most of any Premier League team, followed by Fulham with 39 points. The Premier League average for this period, excluding promoted and relegated teams, is 31 points.
The game also highlighted other issues, including injuries. Tudor only had 15 senior outfield players available for the game against Palace, so they had to name a third goalkeeper and three academy players to fill the bench. A 4-1 defeat to Arsenal meant his options were even more limited.
The Spurs have lost a total of 1,528 days due to injuries this season, which is nearly 25% more total than any other team. James Madison and Dejan Kulusevski don’t appear at all. Other injured absentees include starters Destiny Udogi and Mohamed Kudus.
Last season’s Europa League victory secured Champions League qualification, but juggling European and domestic fixtures has made the task of managing a meager squad even more difficult.
Tottenham’s lack of discipline appears to be a more recent phenomenon, although injuries were similarly prevalent last season under manager Ange Postecoglou. Van de Ven’s red card came just weeks after his centre-back partner Cristian Romero received his second red card of the season.
Micky van de Ven is sent off in the first half against Crystal Palace
The Spurs have won four in total this season, but only one last season. The total number of yellow cards from last season has gone from 70 to 74, with nine games remaining. Their total card total is the highest in the division.
Everything unfolded against a backdrop of turmoil. Frank has been criticized for failing to introduce a discernible style of play, and Tudor’s appointment is still unclear.
Mr. Tudor, like Mr. Frank before him, has been chopping and changing between systems and people. Spurs’ total of 82 line-up changes is the second-most in the Premier League this season, behind only Chelsea. Only three teams have used more starting formations.
This inconsistency may also contribute to their disordered display.
So what now?
It remains to be seen whether the Spurs hierarchy will be tempted to make further head coaching changes, as speculation continues over Tudor’s future just weeks into his appointment.
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Tottenham Hotspur head coach Igor Tudor says he believes in his team more than ever after their 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace
Sky Sports News reports that the 47-year-old will be in charge of Tottenham’s press conference on Monday ahead of their Champions League match against Atletico Madrid.
Tudor claims he was encouraged by elements of the performance against Palace and feels the result will be better once injured players return, but the fixture list is daunting.
The average league position of the remaining nine opponents is 11.11, including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool, as well as three ‘six points’ against relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Leeds. No wonder fans are worried.
