Iran war threatens to disrupt mid-term ‘affordable’ plans

November’s midterm elections were always supposed to be about affordability. Then bombs started being dropped on Iran.

The escalation of U.S. wars in the Middle East threatens to disrupt the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the race for control in Congress. The election is less than eight months away and will determine whether President Donald Trump maintains an iron grip on Washington or spends the final two years of his term fending off attacks from the Democratic Congressional majority.

Both parties are trying to capitalize on the table issue as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of common goods and services. The Iran war now threatens to exacerbate these concerns. And Democrats are seizing the opportunity to mock Trump and the Republicans for starting a conflict that could cost ordinary Americans even more lives.

“There’s going to be a lot of unintended consequences from this because there was no plan,” Sen. Martin Heinrich (DN.M.), the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview on CNBC. “So you saw how much gas went up in a day, oil futures prices went up. There’s going to be a lot of ripple effects.”

Some of these ramifications are already evident. usa crude oil Prices rose to more than $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the outbreak of war. world market index brent The price soared to more than $90 per barrel. That caused gasoline prices to jump to about $3.38 a gallon, more than 35 cents more than the week before the war, according to GasBuddy’s national average.

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, was quick to point out in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices are also rising. While the U.S. increase has been modest so far, the shutdown in Qatar, one of the world’s leading LNG producers, has put pressure on global LNG supplies. Natural gas is the largest generator of electricity in the United States, which is critical as the burgeoning data center industry strains the power grid and increases utility bills.

“I think the thing that American families have felt most acutely over the past year or more is the rising cost of energy and utility bills,” Huffman said. “The primary cause of increased utility costs is that natural gas is becoming increasingly expensive…much of our efforts are focused on LNG exports, rather than strategies that lower rates for U.S. consumers, and that problem is only amplified by this dispute.”

Some Republicans are hoping for a quick end to the Iran conflict to lessen the economic damage. Sen. John Hoeven (D), a member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said keeping energy prices in check depends on the United States destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and nuclear capabilities.

“Once that’s done, oil prices will start to fall because there will be no disruption in the Arabian Gulf,” Hoeven said. “But the real key is that if we meet our goals, oil will continue to come out of the Gulf.”

“I’m talking relatively short term, weeks, not months, and I think that’s the key when it comes to oil prices,” he said.

But a swift operation in Iran is by no means certain, and a prolonged conflict could create a muddy election year for Republicans, said Brittany Martinez, R-Calif., executive director of Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

“If energy prices rise or markets remain volatile, it will be difficult for Republicans to get their message of affordability across clearly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting power overseas will prevent further destabilization, while Democrats will try to tie sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The real question is whether this will lead to a long-term conflict that voters will feel in their households.”

Many believe military intervention in Iran could be prolonged, including President Obama’s national security adviser, Sen. Andy Kim (D.N.J.).

“This administration doesn’t seem to be thinking about this at all,” Kim said in response to a question about a power vacuum that could keep the United States in the region for a long time. “The various assessments that the intelligence community has done have kept me up at night. And I think the fact that this White House is reading the same things that I’ve read and still going through with this, I think it’s completely reckless.”

Further complicating matters for Republicans is the unpopularity of the Iran war. A CNN poll released on March 2nd found that nearly 60% of those surveyed do not support the United States taking military action against Iran. This comes as President Trump’s economic support remains subdued. A Fox News poll released on March 4 found that 61% of voters disapprove of President Trump’s efforts on the economy.

“We don’t see this as an opportunity, but we do think it’s our responsibility to accurately communicate President Donald Trump’s decisions to the American people,” said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.). “He is sending billions of tax dollars to the Middle East for new wars while locking people out of health care and eliminating nutrition programs.”

Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, who is seeking re-election in a district that the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter called a “toss-up,” said he is not concerned that the war could drown out the party’s affordability message. He cited the massive tax and spending bill passed last year, increasing domestic energy production and the housing bill introduced in the House last month as examples the party will use to demonstrate action on rising costs.

He argued that wars in the Middle East do not necessarily prevent Republicans from continuing their efforts to lower prices.

“The richer conversation is: How can we achieve affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is absolutely the right place for us.”

But Trump, an “America first” president whose campaign was to end America’s ties with foreign countries, risks alienating his own base by attacking Iran. Democrats see the war as proof of what they’ve been telling voters all along about President Trump: He doesn’t care about economic comfort.

“We have a president who has been campaigning to end forever wars, and now he has jumped into war without any justification or explanation to the American people,” said Rep. Susan DelBene, D-Wash., who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So this is a series of broken promises at the expense of the needs of ordinary Americans. And voters will hold them accountable in November.”