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The average tax refund so far this season is up 10.6% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
The average refund for individual filers as of Feb. 27 was $3,742, up from $3,382 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday. The average is down from $3,804 reported last week.
Average refunds spike around mid-February when the data includes payments that claim the refundable portion of the child tax credit, typically known as the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), according to an analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center. After a peak in February, the average typically declines gradually until tax day.
The latest filing data reflects about 51.5 million individual tax returns received, out of about 164 million expected by the April 15 deadline.
As the midterm elections approach, Republicans are focused on the size of this season’s tax refunds, with many pointing to reforms enacted by President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill.”
In a late January announcement, the White House cited multiple media reports citing an early October study by investment bank Piper Sandler that said the average tax refund could jump by “more than $1,000.”
Why your tax refund could be bigger this season
Four of President Trump’s new tax cuts (tip income, overtime pay, senior citizen deduction, and auto loan interest deduction) will be in a new form known as Schedule 1-A and will be part of an individual’s tax return.
As of March 4, about 43% of returns included a Schedule 1-A, and the refund for those returns was $775 more than last year’s regular refund, Social Security Administration Commissioner and IRS CEO Frank Bisignano said at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing this week.
Experts say President Trump’s expansion of state and local tax (SALT) deductions could also increase refunds for eligible filers who claim tax deductions.
Some of the smaller changes include expanding the basic deduction for 2025 and a more generous child tax credit.
But experts say tax refunds and outstanding balances also fluctuate based on withholdings from workers’ paychecks and other payments made throughout the year.
“What I’m facing is that (the changes) are going to make a difference of hundreds of dollars, not thousands of dollars,” Tom Oseven, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals, told CNBC.
