A commercial ship photographed off the coast of Dubai on March 11, 2026.
– | AFP | Getty Images
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday as prolonged conflict in the Middle East further tightened energy supplies and reignited concerns about a global economic downturn, sending oil prices soaring.
Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a speech late Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade, should remain closed and that Iran could open other fronts in the war if the conflict drags on.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy Commander Alireza Tansiri also doubled down on the threat in a social media post, warning of the “severest blow against the enemy of the aggressor.”
Bettors on prediction market Calsi have upped their bets that the U.S. economy could slip into recession this year, with the probability rising to 32%, the highest level this year.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 9.22% to close at $100.46 per barrel on Thursday. This is the first time since August 2022 that Brent crude oil has closed above $100. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72% to settle at $95.73.
Rob Summell, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday that oil prices are likely to continue rising in the short term as investors price in the risk of prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
However, he expects prices to fall towards the end of the year as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to resume. “By December, (oil) supplies will have improved and there will be more supplies, so if we can get it done in December, we will be able to buy oil much cheaper.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Brent prices to average $98 a barrel in March and April, 40% above the 2025 average, before falling to $71 a barrel by the fourth quarter. If oil flow through the Straits were disrupted for a month, Brent crude prices would likely rise to an average of $110 in March, then gradually fall to $76 by the end of the year, according to Goldman.
US President Donald Trump has sought to downplay the rise in oil prices, saying the US stands to benefit from rising oil prices as the world’s largest oil producer, while stressing that his priority is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday night that the United States would temporarily allow purchases of sanctioned Russian crude already at sea to stabilize energy markets, calling the price hike a “temporary disruption.”
australian S&P/ASX 200 It fell 0.14% to close at 8,617.1.
Japanese Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.16% to close at 53,819.61, while the overall Topix fell 0.57% to 3,629. honda motor industry Stocks plunged more than 6% after the automaker predicted its first annual loss in nearly 70 years, the biggest drag on the Nikkei average.
South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi fell 1.7% to 5,487.24, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.4% to 1,152.96.
hong kong Hang Seng Index fell 1%, while mainland China’s CSI300 index fell 0.39%.
Overnight, major U.S. stock indexes hit new closing lows in 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 740 points to below 47,000 for the first time this year.
The S&P 500 Index fell 1.5% to close at 6,672.62, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.8% to close at 22,311.98.
Futures tracking the Dow 30 fell 0.03%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.21% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.12%.
Investors are awaiting important US inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters forecast that January’s personal consumption expenditure price index, to be released on Friday, will rise 2.9% from a year earlier, while the core index is expected to accelerate to 3.1%.
