tel aviv
—
In early January, Israel was secretly finalizing plans for a major operation along its northern border. More than a year has passed since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire nominally ended months of open conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which culminated in an Israeli military ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Israeli officials told CNN that the Lebanese government has failed to fulfill its promise to disarm Iran-backed militants in the November 2024 deal. They felt it was time to launch a new operation to end Hezbollah’s ability to permanently rain down rockets on Israeli communities.
Eight days into the new year, Israel’s calculus has changed dramatically. Massive anti-regime protests spread across Iran, suddenly shaking Hezbollah’s main supporters. Dealing with Iran became a top priority for Israeli military planners, especially since it required close coordination with the United States in what would be a large-scale joint operation.
However, plans for a new attack against Hezbollah were still ready.
On March 2, less than 48 hours after Israel and the United States launched a coordinated attack on Iran, Hezbollah fired six rockets into northern Israel, granting Israel a long-awaited opening.
Major General Rafi Milo, commander of Israel’s Northern Command, said last week that “Hezbollah has fallen into a strategic ambush” and said the militant group’s attack on Israel in response to the Israeli airstrike that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was a “grave mistake”. He vowed to continue the strike until Hezbollah suffered a “serious blow.”
Israel says it has launched a series of attacks across Lebanon, targeting senior Hezbollah operatives, command infrastructure, weapons depots, missile launchers and military training facilities.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued dozens of evacuation warnings and evacuated hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians north across the Litani River. Lebanon’s Health Ministry announced Wednesday that more than 680 people had died.
After the November 2024 ceasefire, Israel had already established a military presence in southern Lebanon and occupied five strategic locations. In recent days, the army has advanced more than a kilometer deep into Lebanese territory, in what it calls a “forward defense” buffer zone.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned Israel’s advance, accusing his country of “not respecting the laws of war or international law.” At the same time, it accused Hezbollah of betraying the state and banned military activities.
Hezbollah was once considered one of the world’s most powerful non-state actors and received $1 billion a year in funding from Iran for two decades, according to a former military official. Israel decapitated Iran’s proxy leader and targeted its vast missile array. But Hezbollah was still able to fight back, firing hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, coinciding with a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles. On Wednesday night, Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets in one barrage.
It has also launched direct attacks on Israeli military positions, with the elite Radwan unit attempting to raid northern Israel, Israeli sources told CNN. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and at least 14 others injured in southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
During the 13-month conflict that began after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah. Hezbollah also joined the war, opening a second front from Lebanon the next day.
However, the Israel Defense Forces estimated that Hezbollah will hold a third of its prewar missile stockpile by the time of the ceasefire in 2024. “Whether it’s 30% or 10%, it’s still enough to pose a serious threat to civilians in the north,” an Israeli military official told CNN.
According to military officials, during the initial cease-fire agreement, Hezbollah moved most of its forces and assets north of the Litani River, but it still maintains capabilities in southern Lebanon, both in terms of personnel and weapons. This includes precision weapons and anti-tank missiles that can hit targets within 8 to 10 kilometers (5 to 6 miles), as well as an aggressive drone program, Israeli sources familiar with the strategic assessment told CNN.
Since the 2024 ceasefire, Israel has carried out near-daily attacks on Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure across southern Lebanon, accusing it of attempting to rearm and rebuild. Two Israeli intelligence sources say that in recent months, Israeli leaders have concluded that Hezbollah’s military rebuilding is progressing faster than the IDF’s efforts to disrupt it. Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff, characterized the Lebanon operation as an “opportunity.”
“Israel wants to finish its mission in Lebanon,” a senior Israeli official told CNN.
Israel’s position is that the Lebanese government and military lack the capacity to counter Hezbollah. When the Lebanese army announced in January 2025 that it had achieved operational control south of the Litani River, Israel dismissed it as “far from enough.”
Days after declaring Hezbollah’s military operations illegal, Lebanon’s president said the group was acting “in the interests of the Iranian regime.” He called for direct negotiations with Israel to achieve a “final cessation of hostilities.”
But Israeli officials see little chance of a durable deal without significant military pressure.
“The Lebanese government has called for negotiations, but Israel finds the status quo unacceptable, and the current government in Jerusalem will probably not agree to end the conflict without a military outcome,” said Assaf Orion, a retired brigadier general and international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Orion said Hezbollah is reviving the narrative of resistance while the Lebanese government insists on diplomacy.
“We need to remember who has the gun,” Orion told CNN.
Israel’s expanded operations against Hezbollah have two stated goals: weakening and diminishing Hezbollah’s capabilities and strengthening Israel’s northern border.
Israeli sources say the operation in Lebanon reflects a broader recalibration of Israel’s strategic doctrine from October 2023 onwards. Israel believes it needs to establish strong military defenses to protect civilians from Iranian proxies on its borders. In October 2023, Israel evacuated more than 60,000 people from its border, a step the country has vowed never to do again. The buffer zones that Israel has created or expanded by drawing new lines in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria reflect that logic.
This security approach is consistent with the expansionist ambitions of Israel’s far-right governing coalition. Likud lawmaker Amit Halevi said last week that the Litani River, about nine miles south of Lebanon, “must become the new yellow line of the north,” referring to the line from which Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip. Although Israeli military officials have publicly maintained that the current operation is limited and targeted, political pressure to expand the buffer zone in the long term is real.
Israel considers Hezbollah to be in its weakest position ever, with Iran’s financial and arms pipeline severely disrupted and many Lebanese no longer seeing Hezbollah as their defender. “Faced with the opportunity created by Hezbollah’s choice to go to war, we must use this moment to finish what we failed to do at the time,” said an Israeli military official.
For now, Iran remains Israel’s top priority. But once this front of the conflict ends, perhaps due to President Donald Trump’s decision, Israel is likely to shift its attention entirely to Lebanon, Orion said. The Israeli Air Force, currently partnering with Iran, will be free to cover ground operations against Hezbollah,” Orion assessed.
“The Iranian front will not be open indefinitely, and Israel can get through several more weeks of limited engagement with Hezbollah before moving on to a full-scale attack,” he said.
