A visitor in a kimono (left) looks at a photo taken during a visit to Sensoji Temple in the Asakusa district of central Tokyo on September 16, 2025.
Richard A. Brooks | AFP | Getty Images
After living in Tokyo for more than a year, Karin Nordin noticed something strange. The hot spring towns of Kusatsu and Zao, which are usually crowded with Chinese tourists, are now deserted.
“There have been fewer Chinese tourists from the mainland in Tokyo,” the 33-year-old Malaysian told CNBC after returning from Japan in early 2026.
Hotel prices in tourist destinations appear to have stabilized and, unlike in previous years, have not soared during the holiday period seen in mainland China.
Nordin’s experience is representative of the broader Japanese tourism situation, with Chinese tourists turning away from Asia’s third-largest economy amid a diplomatic spat that began last November over comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
According to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of arrivals from mainland China in January plummeted by more than 60% from a year earlier, while the overall number of tourists was down 4.9% from a year earlier.
In December, the number of Chinese tourists decreased by 43.3%, but the total number of tourists from other countries increased by 3.7%.
Before November, tourists from mainland China were one of the largest groups heading to Japan.
tourists from other places
Where are the other tourists coming from? JNTO statistics suggest that the number of tourists from South Korea and Taiwan is increasing. In January alone, South Korea’s tourist arrivals increased by 21.6%, surpassing mainland China to become the largest number of international tourists.
In January, there were almost twice as many tourists from Taiwan as there were from China, and the number of tourists from Taiwan increased by 17%.
TOKYO, JAPAN – FEBRUARY 5: Tourists and shoppers walking through Tsukiji shopping district in Tokyo on February 5, 2026.
Tomohiro Osumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Jilmiya Kamble, senior lecturer in hospitality and tourism management at James Cook University (JCU), said Japan’s appeal to visitors from neighboring countries lies in its availability of short-haul flights, the weak yen, and its reputation as a nearby, culturally familiar and safe destination.
Asked about the decline in tourists from mainland China, Kumble said in an email to CNBC that the decline is “significant, but not catastrophic.”
Kumble said Chinese tourists are big spenders on retail, hospitality and luxury goods and represent one of Japan’s most valuable inbound markets, but Japan has historically had a diversified tourism portfolio, which has provided some resilience.
Different cities for different people
However, unlike Chinese tourists, who are generally perceived to visit tourist-heavy locations such as Kyoto, Osaka, and Tokyo, the influx of tourists from other countries appears to be bringing tourists to other parts of Japan as well.
Analysts at Oxford Economics said in a February 27 report that areas such as Shizuoka prefecture, home to the iconic Mount Fuji, and Nara prefecture, famous for its temples and deer parks, have been hit harder by a decline in Chinese tourists.
But places like Fukushima are popular with Taiwanese, and golf courses and hot springs in Ehime Prefecture are popular with Korean tourists, according to Oxford Economics.
Cheryl Ng, a Singaporean university student who visited Hiroshima in February, told CNBC that there are many Western tourists in Hiroshima. “Two-thirds of the museum was Westerners,” she said of the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.
Oxford Economics echoed that view, noting that Americans, Australians and Europeans are attracted to Hiroshima’s historic sites.
(On August 6, 1945, at the end of World War II, as the US military approached Imperial Japan, Hiroshima was attacked with the first atomic bomb in history.
“Given the continued weakness of the yen, we believe overall tourist numbers are likely to remain strong, although an increase from current levels is unlikely given the lack of accommodation,” Oxford Economics said.
David Mann, Mastercard’s chief economist for Asia Pacific, agreed in an email to CNBC: “The overall picture remains positive.”
Mann noted that overall inbound tourism to Japan is about 34% above pre-pandemic levels, and that tourism revenue is growing faster than the number of inbound visitors due to increased spending per visitor due to the weaker yen.
Will Chinese tourists return?
The question then becomes, will Chinese tourists return to Japan?
Analysts at Oxford Economics said tourist numbers from China were “unlikely to recover quickly” in the short term, and Japanese companies were looking to capture demand from other countries.
Department stores are expanding their promotional efforts in ASEAN countries, with retailers stocking more items popular with Westerners and Southeast Asians rather than targeting Chinese tourists, analysts said.
Mastercard’s Mann said it was difficult to pinpoint an exact date for the return of Chinese tourists, but the recovery was likely to be gradual.
JCU’s Kumble echoed his sentiments, pointing out that travel decisions are driven not just by politics, but also by consumer confidence, social media discourse and broader economic conditions.
He said other factors such as airline connectivity, disposable income and diplomatic stability would also come into play.
“Rebuilding trust will take time, especially in a highly connected digital information environment,” she said.
