As U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to build a naval coalition willing to open the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are negotiating directly with Iran over safe navigation, highlighting a new de facto reality, analysts say: Regardless of military achievements, Tehran’s government still controls who uses the world’s most important energy waterway.
After the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s military leadership responded by focusing on its most powerful form of influence: Iran’s geography. The country controls the northern shores of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and natural gas supplies pass. It is 33 kilometers (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point, making any navy attempting to cross it easy prey for Iranian attacks from the mainland.
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Given the low risk appetite of insurance companies, the relatively small number of attacks, or even the mere threat of attacks, on ships in the Straits undermined market confidence, drove up insurance premiums, and caused a near paralysis of maritime traffic. Approximately 20 ships have been attacked since the war began.
“Iran has effectively demonstrated that it dictates the terms of passage through the strait,” said Andreas Krieg, associate professor of security studies at King’s College London and research fellow at the King’s Middle East Institute. This will become the new reality in the near future, he added.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel, more than 20% higher than before the war, and countries are being forced to release their largest emergency stockpiles in history. Gasoline prices have increased by more than 40% since the war began.
President Trump initially floated the idea of ordering the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the waterway. He then appealed to some countries to send warships and warned NATO allies that they faced a “very bad” future if these allies did not help open the straits. However, appeals were either dismissed or received disingenuous responses. Japan has said it has no plans to deploy naval vessels. Australia excluded sending ships. Britain said it would not be drawn into a wider war. Germany sent a clear message: “This is not our war.”
Some decided to take action, but not in the way President Trump called for it. Two Indian-flagged gas tankers passed through the strait on Saturday after days of negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, including a telephone conversation between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ships from Pakistan, Turkiye, and China also passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times reported that Italy and France have also approached Iran about a deal, although Italian authorities have rejected such overtures.
Meanwhile, maritime intelligence tracking group Windward said traffic in the strait remained 97 percent below average on Tuesday, but the number of vessels passing through Iranian territorial waters had increased, suggesting Tehran was allowing “permit-based passage.”
“We are the ones who decide that.”
The precedent for the U.S. Navy escorting convoys through the Straits dates back to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But experts say today’s scenario is different. At the time, the United States supported Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, but was not a direct party to the conflict. Iran was still in the process of consolidating power after the revolution, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was not as organized as it is today.
Currently, Iran has and is using drones that can be produced on a large scale in its own factories. Iranian forces could also use small boats to attack tankers, deploy mines, and use other guerrilla-style tactics. There are conflicting reports about whether Iran has planted mines in the strait, but experts said this would be a counterproductive move for Iran because it would disrupt the navigation of any vessel, including Iranian ships, and deprive Iran of the power to choose who is allowed to pass through.
Iranian officials recognize their country’s geographic advantage. “This is for our military to decide,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, referring to who will be allowed to use the strait.
Pro-government figures are increasingly framing the Strait of Hormuz as a vehicle for strategic negotiations beyond the war itself, suggesting the waterway could be used to extract post-war reparations, sanctions relief or broader economic concessions, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Studies, commented on X.
Recent attacks seem to suggest that Iran wants to increase pressure on energy markets.
On Tuesday, a drone attack caused a fire at Fujairah Port, the UAE’s only crude oil export terminal. It is located outside the eastern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, allowing exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis could also further pressure oil prices by dividing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. If that happens, the United States will operate across multiple sea areas. So far, the Houthis have not carried out such attacks, but this month they said they were ready to attack at any time.
Still, the US is focused on applying maximum pressure on Tehran and forcing it to open the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command, the U.S. military combatant command responsible for operations in the Middle East, announced early Wednesday that its forces had used a 2,270 kg (5,000 pound) bunker bomb against an anti-ship missile base along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump has also ordered an amphibious ship carrying thousands of U.S. Marines to the Middle East, and some experts believe the U.S. may try to seize Kharg Island, a small stretch of land in the northern Gulf where 90% of Iranian oil is exported. The US has already bombed alleged military installations on the island.
But such operations may do little to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, Krieg said. The island is 500 kilometers (310 miles) from the strait, and a U.S. occupation of the island would expose U.S. marines to Iranian artillery fire. If Iran saw its main terminals seized, it would have less reason to allow some ships through, and might choose to mine the strait entirely.
“The Strait of Hormuz issue is not really a military issue. … It is a market issue and trust cannot be restored by the military. Trust can only be restored through diplomacy,” Krieg said.
