HANOI, Vietnam (AP) – The Iran war has exposed the world’s dependence on vulnerable fossil fuel routes and added urgency to calls for a rapid transition to renewable energy.
The battle is Oil exports have almost stopped through Strait of Hormuza narrow waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). This turmoil has shocked the energy market, push up prices and put a strain on an economy dependent on imports.
Asia, where most of the oil is sent, hit the hardestBut the disruption will also put a strain on Europe, where policymakers are looking for ways to reduce energy demand, and Africa, which is preparing for energy demand. Rising fuel costs and inflation.
Unlike during previous oil shocks, renewable electricity now competes with fossil fuels in many places. According to , more than 90% of new renewable power generation projects installed around the world in 2024 were cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. International Renewable Energy Agency.
In addition to power generation, petroleum is used in many other industries, including the production of fertilizers and plastics. Therefore, most countries feel the shockOn the other hand, because renewable energy relies on domestic resources such as solar and wind rather than imported fuels, regions that deploy more renewable energy are better insulated.
“These crises happen on a regular basis,” said James Bowen of Australian-based consultancy Remap Research. “They are a feature of the fossil fuel-based energy system, not a bug.”
China and India have built renewable buffers, but China is larger.
China and India, the world two most populous countriesfaces the same challenge of generating the electricity needed to support a growing population of more than 1 billion people. Both have expanded renewable energy; China did it on a much larger scale Despite continuing to rely on coal-fired power generation.
current china Leading the world in renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency, about one in 10 cars in China is electric. It remains the world’s largest importer of crude oil and the largest importer of crude oil. Iranian oil buyer. However, by electrifying parts of the economy with renewable energy, the country’s dependence on imports has decreased.
Without that change, China “will become much more vulnerable to supply and price shocks,” said Lauri Milivirta of the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research. China could also rely on reserves created when prices are low and switch between using coal and oil as fuel for its factories, he said.
India is also expanding its use of clean energy, particularly solar power, but government support for manufacturing renewable energy equipment and connecting solar power to the grid has been slow and limited.
rear Russia’s invasion of Ukraine In 2022, India will prioritize energy security; Buy Russian crude oil cheaply and increased coal production. It was also exciting solar and windDattatreya Das of the think tank Ember said supply disruptions are helping to ease, but not completely avoidable.
“Everyone can’t be China,” Das said.
India is currently facing a shortage of cooking gas. This caused a rush to purchase IH cookers, Fear of restaurant closures. Fertilizer and ceramic industries may also be hit.
Rich countries rely on fossil fuels
Energy shocks are well known in wealthy countries in Europe and East Asia.
In 2022, some European governments sought to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. But Pauline Heinrichs, a climate and energy researcher at King’s College London, said many quickly focused on finding new fossil fuel suppliers instead.
He said Germany is rushing to build LNG terminals to replace Russian gas with mainly American fuel as the energy transition slows, including efforts to reduce demand.
Europe’s overspending on fossil fuels Russia-Ukraine war According to a 2023 study, this represents about 40% of the investment needed to transition the electricity system to clean energy.
“In Europe, we learned the wrong lesson,” Heinrichs said.
In import-dependent Japan, policy responses to past shocks have focused on diversifying fossil fuel imports rather than investing in domestic renewable energy, said Ayumi Fukakusa of Friends of the Earth Japan.
According to Ember, solar and wind power account for just 11% of Japan’s energy production, about the same as India’s but less than China’s 18%. Japan’s energy usage is much lower compared to both countries.
of iran war He led the agenda when he was Prime Minister of Japan. Sanae Takaichi This week’s talks with the US President Donald Trump. President Trump has long urged Japan to increase its purchases of U.S. LNG, and recently called on allies like Japan to “step up” to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said the crisis could be a “good opportunity” to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
poor countries most at risk
Poor countries in Asia and Africa are competing for limited gas supplies with wealthy European and Asian countries and big buyers such as India and China, driving up prices.
Import-dependent economies such as Benin and Zambia in Africa and Bangladesh and Thailand in Asia could face the biggest shocks. Expensive fuel increases transportation costs and food prices, and many countries have limited foreign exchange reserves, limiting their ability to pay for imports if prices remain high.
Africa could be particularly at risk, as many countries rely on imported oil to operate transport and supply chains.
Kennedy Mbeba, a researcher at the Center for Existential Risk Research at the University of Cambridge, said it made strategic sense for African countries to build long-term energy security by investing in clean energy.
However, not all countries are choosing renewable energy. South Africa is considering building an LNG import terminal and a new gas-fired power plant.
Others, like Ethiopia Prohibited gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles In 2024, we will double our use of renewable energy to promote electric vehicles.
The real challenge is not only to withstand the next shock, but to ensure that it does not “derail the country’s development trajectory,” said Hanan Hassen, an analyst at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Research Institute, an Ethiopian government-affiliated think tank.
Renewable energy provides a cushion for some
Increased use of renewable energy has helped protect some Asian countries from energy shocks.
Pakistan’s solar power boom has preempted more than $12 billion in fossil fuel imports since 2020 and could save an additional $6.3 billion in 2026 at current prices, according to think tanks Renewable First and the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
According to research group Zero Carbon Analytics, Vietnam’s current solar power generation could help save hundreds of millions of dollars in potential coal and gas imports next year, based on current high prices.
Other countries are also facing tight supplies.
Bangladesh has closed universities to save electricity. Kondakar Gholam Moazem, an economist at the Center for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, said the government had started rationing fuel after panic buying at petrol stations as storage capacity to absorb supply shocks was limited.
For now, all the government has to do is manage the shortage and control prices. Thailand has halted oil exports, increased gas production and started accessing reserves.
Areporn Asawinpongphan, a researcher at the Thailand Institute for Development Studies, warned that if the conflict escalates into April, prices will soar because Thailand has limited reserves and a limited subsidy budget.
“The time to promote renewable energy in the country should have come a long time ago,” Asawinpongphan said.
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Delgado reported from Bangkok, Thailand, and Olingo from Nairobi, Kenya.
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