Tokyo
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The White House meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump was supposed to be a routine show of unity, not the stress test it is now.
The two leaders hoped to build on momentum from President Trump’s recent visit to Tokyo, which set the stage for the Japan-U.S. alliance to enter a “golden age.”
For Takaichi, it was also an opportunity to demonstrate his reliability in defense and security. President Trump embraced this symbolism, praising Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister and striking a familiar tone of personal diplomacy, telling her if she needed anything, “just call me.”
But in recent days, the tone of the upcoming meeting has changed dramatically.
The US-Israel war against Iran has exposed Japan’s fundamental weakness in national security: energy dependence. Japan imports more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, but its dependence on this has increased further after Russia drastically reduced its energy imports following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Disruption in the Gulf region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supplies passes, will immediately spill over into Japan’s economy.
Fuel prices have already risen to multi-year highs, with average prices reaching 190.9 yen ($1.20) per liter this week, which is expected to add to broader inflationary pressures. Japan maintains strategic oil reserves equivalent to more than 254 days of consumption, and the Japanese government has already begun tapping these reserves to stabilize supply, prices, and public sentiment.
At the same time, pressure from Washington is increasing.
President Trump called on U.S. allies, including Japan, to send warships to help escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran regularly attacks ships. However, his message was never consistent. Sometimes he urges cooperation, and sometimes he suggests that allies should shoulder the burden themselves. The reversal has created uncertainty in Tokyo, with officials now trying to interpret what President Trump will say next. And what will he say when he meets Takaichi?
As a practical matter, it is unlikely that Japan will engage in hostilities. Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution imposes strict restrictions on the use of force. Successive governments have reinterpreted these constraints to allow for a limited right of collective self-defense under certain conditions, but any meaningful military involvement in a U.S.-led conflict would face severe legal and political hurdles. Parliamentary approval is required. Public support may not exist.
But simply citing Japan’s legal limits won’t appease Trump, Jeffrey Kingston, a professor of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, told CNN.
“Trump will ask, ‘Are you for us or against us? Are you an Asian sheriff’s deputy or not?'” Kingston said.
“The last thing she wants is a Starmer scenario,” he added, referring to Trump’s criticism of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not jumping in to support the U.S. war effort.
Japan’s prime minister ignores questions about Trump
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is headed to Washington this week for a high-stakes meeting with President Donald Trump. He expressed growing frustration with the inability of U.S. allies, including Japan, a country limited by its pacifist constitution, to support the war against Iran. CNN’s Hanako Montgomery explains Takaichi’s delicate task of finding a way to show support for Trump without getting into a war.
For Takaichi, the dilemma is serious. Japan’s security environment is perhaps the most challenging in decades, with China asserting itself militarily, North Korea advancing its missile program, and Russia maintaining pressure in the region. The U.S. security umbrella remains essential.
At the same time, domestic political realities are also looming. There is little public interest in getting involved in a conflict in the Middle East, especially one where Japan’s ships, infrastructure, and people could be exposed to retaliation.
Takaichi himself acknowledged these risks, warning in Congress that involvement could make Japan a target of terrorism, and stressing the need for a “shrewd foreign policy” based on national interests.
Its longer diplomatic history with Iran should also be considered.
Japan has maintained a relatively stable relationship with Iran for decades, driven primarily by its energy needs. In 2019, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe became the first Japanese leader in more than 40 years to visit Tehran and met with late supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an effort to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Although the initiative ultimately failed, it underscored Japan’s unique relationship with America’s adversaries.
So what can Japan offer President Trump?
Support is not expected to extend to direct military involvement. But it could be a logistical or financial issue.
Japan said it was considering legally permissible options, which could mean intelligence or surveillance operations, similar to when Japan sent a Maritime Self-Defense Force ship to monitor shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz in 2020.
On the financial front, Japan is expected to announce a new investment round as part of a $550 billion deal it already has with the United States. These could enhance cooperation in nuclear energy, liquefied natural gas, and develop crude oil production in Alaska. That would be key for the US in its war with Iran.
The Japanese government is also expected to notify Washington of its intention to participate in the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative, which could support missile production due to Middle East wars. In fact, late last year, Japan exported surface-to-air Patriot missiles manufactured under license to the United States. This was a historic break from the long-standing embargo on exports of lethal weapons.
Domestic tensions over Japan’s postwar pacifism came to the fore in parliament this week, with opposition lawmakers questioning Takaichi’s push to ease restrictions on arms exports. Her reply was short: “Times have changed.”
With security concerns mounting and its closest allies beating the drums of war, Japan faces a stark choice: adapt quickly or risk straining its relationship with the United States.
