The US and Israel’s war against Iran is entering its fourth week, and the conflict appears to be escalating beyond President Donald Trump’s control.
The Iranian government withstood weeks of airstrikes, killing political and military leaders, and launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and Gulf states.
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Iran’s government has also effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, sending oil prices soaring. Analysts said the conflict risked triggering a global recession. That has put pressure on Trump to allow the sale of sanctioned Russian oil in an effort to ease the energy crisis and pressure allies to secure the strait, a move that has so far failed.
President Trump’s response on how to handle the situation has been far from consistent.
On Saturday, President Trump upped the ante, threatening to “destroy” Iranian power plants if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. This came a day after he said the US was “winding down” its military operations in Iran.
Analysts said Trump started the war without a clear goal and misjudged how Iran would respond. The conflict spread throughout the Middle East.
So is Trump aiming to withdraw from the war or to escalate it?
President Trump’s mixed messages on the Iran war
Let’s take a quick look at the changes in Washington’s statement.
Is the war ending or expanding?
One statement by President Trump suggested the US was considering “winding down” the war on Iran, while another suggested the conflict would escalate in the coming days.
On Saturday, President Trump posted on his Truth social platform that the U.S. government is “very close to achieving our goals as we consider reducing our large-scale military effort in the Middle East against Iran’s terrorist regime.”
President Trump’s goals for the war include completely reducing Iran’s missile capabilities, destroying its defense industrial base, eliminating Iran’s navy and air force, ensuring Iran never comes close to acquiring nuclear weapons, protecting its allies in the Middle East, and guarding and guarding the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have repeatedly claimed in recent days that Iran’s military has been “completely destroyed,” even as Tehran continues to retaliate against Israel and attack countries in the region.
U.S. military officials said they have launched heavy artillery fire on Iran’s coast, including bunker-buster bombs, but have not yet been able to limit Iran’s ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
On Saturday, President Trump said the United States had “blown Iran off the map” and claimed that he had “achieved my own goal…and I did it weeks ahead of schedule!” He also reiterated that Iran’s “leadership is gone, our navy and air force are crippled, we have no defense whatsoever, and we want a deal.”
Iranian leaders have consistently denied that they have approached the United States with a cease-fire offer.
Just an hour later, Trump returned to his Truth Social platform and issued a warning against Iran.
“If Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz without threat within 48 hours from this point, the United States will attack and destroy various Iranian power plants, starting with the largest and starting with the largest!” Trump wrote.
Iran has since responded by vowing to attack energy facilities across the Middle East if its power generation facilities were targeted. It has already launched hundreds of missiles and drones into Gulf states, targeting energy facilities as well as U.S. assets.
Between President Trump’s claim that he was “winding down” operations and the subsequent increase in contributions, the Trump administration announced it would send three more warships to the Middle East and about 2,500 additional Marines.
The US military has announced that approximately 50,000 soldiers have already been dispatched to the war against Iran.
When will the war with Iran end?
This was one of the biggest questions asked of US officials, including President Trump, since the war against Iran began on February 28th.
The next day, President Trump told the Daily Mail, “It’s going to take about four weeks. The process in the past has always been about four weeks.” The next day, President Trump said at the White House: “We were expecting four to five weeks, but we have the capacity to go much further than that.”
On March 8, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on the CBS Television Network’s 60 Minutes that “this is just the beginning.” The next day, the US president said on the same channel that he believed “the war is almost completely over.” And the U.S. military operation was “significantly ahead of schedule.”
And on March 9, President Trump said the war was “both finished and just beginning.” Later the same day, the president said, “We have already won in many ways, but we have not won enough yet,” pledging to be even tougher on Iran.
On March 11, President Trump said, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We have to get the job done.”
Why did the US and Israel launch an attack on Iran?
Perhaps the answer to this question is most telling about America’s stance on the war against Iran.
On March 2, Hegseth said the attack was aimed at ending a “47-year-old” war by “an expansionist, Islamist regime in Tehran” and was launched because Iran refused to negotiate with the United States.
Hours later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. knew Israel was going to attack Iran, adding that the Trump administration believed the U.S. needed to launch a first strike before Iranian retaliation could potentially target U.S. forces. “We took active defensive measures to prevent them from doing more damage,” he said.
This caused an uproar in Washington, with critics saying Israel had pushed the US into war with Iran. Trump quickly contradicted his top diplomat, saying, “They (Iran) were going to attack. If we didn’t, they were going to attack first. … So if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand.”
The next day, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt concluded that Washington attacked Tehran because President Trump had a “good feeling” that Iran would attack.
The start of the war came as Washington and Tehran were scheduled to meet for another round of talks, which began late last year. Before the war, Omani mediators said an agreement was “within reach.”
U.S. and Israeli claims that Tehran was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb have not been corroborated by the United Nations nuclear watchdog. Last week, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also told Congress that Iran is not in a position to build an atomic bomb.
Some analysts said the Trump administration was persuaded to go to war by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has called for U.S. military intervention in Iran for decades. They said President Trump was emboldened by the US military’s swift operations in Venezuela and did not think through Iran’s strengths before going to war. In January, U.S. forces abducted President Nicolás Maduro in a two-and-a-half-hour military operation in Caracas.
What do the conflicting messages mean for U.S. strategy?
Analysts said the moving goalposts on the Iran war are in part indicative of the current Trump administration’s policy limits and its strategy to keep off-ramps available.
Zeidun al-Kinani, a Middle East analyst at the Arab Perspective Institute, told Al Jazeera that early in the hostilities there appeared to be clearer goals and narrower objectives.
“Now there seems to be an even more chaotic reaction going on,” he said. He said attacks were becoming increasingly reciprocal and suggested attacks on oil and energy facilities could prompt further escalation.
Last week, Iran attacked Qatari energy facilities, causing “significant damage” and destroying 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity. Qatar produces 20% of the world’s LNG supply. Iran claimed the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s attack on the gas plant.
Paolo von Schirach, director of the Global Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera that President Trump’s thinking changes “very quickly” and it is difficult to predict his next steps in the war against Iran.
The analyst said it was unclear what “tools” Trump had to end the war.
“We’re looking at his message that the war is coming to an end. Okay, okay. Things are quiet. Maybe there’s a way out somehow. But now he’s saying that if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, we (the United States) are going to unleash hell, and what are you going to do?” von Schirach noted.
“I don’t really know what he wants and what the tools are to achieve it.”
Von Schirach added that given Iran’s size and population, it is difficult to predict whether the United States will be able to force Iran into submission. Referring to Iraq, where 150,000 American troops were sent during the Second Gulf War, analysts predicted that the United States may need as many as 500,000 troops if President Trump wants to “take over Iran.”
