Aerial view of oil storage tanks seen at the Big Spring Refinery on March 19, 2026 in Big Spring, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Oil prices rose in volatile trading on Monday as investors weighed the possibility of further escalation following President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to demand that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Iran pushed back, saying it would consider power plants and water facilities in the region to be “legitimate targets” if the power grid were attacked.
Brent crude oil futures (for delivery in May), an international benchmark, rose 1% to $113.32 per barrel, reversing earlier losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose about 2.8% to $101.01 per barrel in early European time.
Goldman Sachs significantly raised its oil price forecast on Monday, predicting that Brent crude prices will average $110 in March and April, up 62% from its previous forecast of $98, or the annual average in 2025. The bank also raised its WTI forecast to $98 in March and $105 in April.
“Assuming that inflows to Hormuz Island remain at 5% (of normal inflows) until April 10, prices are likely to trend upward during that period,” Goldman analysts said, adding that government recognition of risks around supply concentration and limited domestic spare capacity could lead to further stockpiling and longer-term prices.
If Hormuz inflows remain at 5% for 10 weeks, daily Brent prices are likely to surpass record levels set in 2008, Goldman said. Brent crude oil reached about $147 per barrel in July 2008, but plummeted to about $40 within a few months as the global financial crisis squeezed demand.
Oil prices fluctuated on Saturday after President Trump threatened to “destroy” Tehran’s power plant if Washington did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a deadline that expires on Monday.
In response, Iranian parliamentary spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that if Iranian power plants were attacked, critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed.”
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping traffic since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. Oil prices have soared in recent weeks on fears of a worsening supply shock due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, raising concerns about inflation and weighing on growth.
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil supplies, but commercial shipping remains largely cut off.
Iranian state media claimed on Sunday that Tehran would allow safe passage through the strait for all ships except those associated with “enemies of Iran.”
us natural gas price It was last trading at $3.123 per million British thermal units, up 0.9%. Nymex last month ROB gasoline Meanwhile, the price for April delivery rose 1.4% to $3.332, hovering near a four-year high.
International Energy Agency Director-General Fatih Birol warned on Monday that the situation in the Middle East was “very difficult” and far worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas impact of the Russia-Ukraine war combined.
IEA member states agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to deal with supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.
The IEA chief said he was consulting with Asian and European governments about releasing more oil reserves “if necessary” and stressed that the most important solution was “opening the Strait of Hormuz.”
Widening disparity
On Monday, the spread between crude oil benchmark Brent crude and U.S. WTI rose to more than $14 a barrel, the widest price difference between U.S. and international crude oil benchmarks in years.
Since the war began, Brent crude has risen faster than WTI, reflecting the maritime benchmark’s increased sensitivity to geopolitical risks. However, WTI crude oil is stored at a landlocked base in Cushing, Oklahoma, which tends to be more isolated from direct supply chain disruptions at sea.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, said the widening gap reflects more pressing oil supply risks outside the United States.
“The United States will remain the most protected of all regions,” Sen said, as the country remains the world’s largest oil producer and the administration has begun shipping shipments from the Strategic Oil Reserve.
“It’s going to be enough of a cushion so that the US doesn’t really feel the impact of what’s happening in the Middle East,” Sen said.
Chris Verrone, chief market strategist at Strategas Research, said on Monday that the gap could indicate the market is approaching “the peak intensity of this oil crisis” as investors bet on a prolonged conflict and a long-term rise in Brent oil prices.
