Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 18, 2026 in New York City, USA.
Brendan McDiarmid | Reuters
S&P 500 futures and oil futures were unusually active early Monday morning, minutes before a market-moving social media post by President Donald Trump.
Around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on CME broke out of pre-market slump and recorded a sharp jump in volume on its own. The sudden burst stood out as one of the highest-volume moments of the session up to that point, amid thin liquidity typical of early trading hours.
A similar pattern was observed in the oil market. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable increase in trading activity around the same time, punctuated by a spike in volume that marked an otherwise quiet situation.
Approximately 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., President Trump said on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held talks and halted plans to attack Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. Risk assets immediately rose following the announcement, with S&P 500 futures surging more than 2.5% before the opening bell. Following the announcement, West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 6%.
The timing of the initial volume spike across both stocks and oil caught the attention of traders, especially given that there was no obvious catalyst at the moment it occurred.
Early morning futures markets are generally less liquid, so short-term buying and selling may be more noticeable than during normal trading hours. Still, the trade raised some eyebrows because people who bought large amounts of stock futures and then sold or shorted oil futures at that moment were making huge profits just minutes later.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group declined to comment.
Algorithmic and macro-driven strategies can also generate rapid flows across asset classes without requiring a single identifiable catalyst early in the trade.
— With assistance from CNBC’s Fred Imbert.
