US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a five-day moratorium on attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure, insisting that the US and Iran had had “very good, productive dialogue” towards ending the war.
That same day, President Trump told reporters that his special envoys were speaking with senior Iranian officials.
Trump did not name the official, but multiple Israeli and U.S. news outlets reported that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were meeting with Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Both the Iranian government and Ghalibaf denied that talks were taking place between the United States and Tehran. And in the Iranian system, any negotiations with the United States would require the approval of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council to have legitimacy.
Who is Ghalibaf and what do we know about these supposed negotiations?
What do we know about the talks President Trump claims to be having?
On Saturday, President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the vital shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz or risk a U.S. attack on its power plants. In response, Iran announced attacks on energy and water facilities in Israel and the Gulf. Mr. Ghalibaf also threatened companies that held U.S. debt.
And on Monday, President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iranian governments had “a very good and productive dialogue regarding a complete and complete resolution of hostilities in the Middle East.” He ordered the US military to bombard Iranian power plants for five days.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied President Trump’s claims that negotiations were underway. Iranian officials accused President Trump of calling off the attack solely to calm energy markets.
News outlets reported Monday that President Trump said the envoys were in contact with senior Iranian officials.
“We’re not dealing with the supreme leader, we’re dealing with the person who I think is the most respected. We haven’t heard from him yet,” Trump told reporters on Monday.
Trump said he did not name Iranian leaders because he did not want to kill them, but the US news websites Axios and Politico, as well as several Israeli publications, reported that Witkoff and Kushner had been in contact with Ghalibaf.
However, Ghalibaf wrote in an X post on Monday that “there are no negotiations with the US, and fake news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and get the US and Israel out of the quagmire they find themselves in.”
Who is Ghalibaf?
Ghalibaf, 64, is the speaker of Iran’s parliament.
He served as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air force commander from 1997 to 2000, and then as the country’s police chief. He served as the mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017.
Ghalibaf ran for president in 2005, 2013, 2017, and 2024, but declined to run for president before the 2017 election.
In May 2020, Ghalibaf was appointed speaker of the parliament, replacing Ali Larijani, who had served as speaker since 2008. Larijani was a close aide to former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28, the first day of the US-Israel war. Larijani, Iran’s top security official, was also killed in an Israeli attack on March 17.
What did Ghalibaf say during the war?
Mr. Ghalibaf has been one of the harshest critics of the United States and Israel in his online posts, and has repeatedly made threats against Israel, the United States, and Gulf states. These threats often echoed the warnings of the Revolutionary Guards, but sometimes went beyond what the military itself had threatened.
On March 14, he mocked President Trump for claiming that the United States had won against Iran. Three days later, he declared that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-war condition. Ghalibaf posted on Sunday that financial institutions that fund Washington’s military are legitimate targets for Iran, saying, “U.S. debt is steeped in Iranian blood. If you buy it, you are buying attacks on your headquarters and assets.”
And on Monday, Ghalibaf posted a series of posts on X denying that talks were taking place with the United States.
“The Iranian people demand full and repentant punishment for the aggressors,” he wrote. “All Iranian officials stand firmly behind the Supreme Leader and the people until this goal is achieved.”
What are the chances that negotiations will take place at this point?
Experts believe negotiations are plausible given growing pressure on President Trump to end the war, but are cautious about predicting whether they will be successful.
Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi told Al Jazeera: “I rate the chances of talks at 60% for several reasons.”
Habibie explained that the cost of the war was high for all parties. President Trump faces pressure to contain the war and stop attacks on energy infrastructure. He is facing pressure from major economic partners such as Gulf states, European countries, Japan and South Korea, which have been affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He also faces growing concerns among Republican lawmakers worried about the impact of rising fuel costs on their party’s chances in the midterm elections scheduled for November.
He added that Iran is facing pressure as well. “Iran’s surviving leaders are under considerable stress and are concerned about attacks on their major energy and power plant infrastructure.”
Habibi added that several intermediary countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye were able to establish communication channels with Iranian officials. This paves the way for negotiations.
In addition, China is also using its influence to elicit negotiations with Iran, Habibi said.
“Israel and the United States expected a short war with a path to regime collapse. They have now revised their expectations, recognizing the heavy cost of a long war that would allow Iran to attack Israeli targets.”
What’s next?
“It is difficult to predict whether the negotiations that will take place in the coming days will be successful or not,” Habibie said.
He added that while there may be a reduction in violence and confidence-building measures on both sides during negotiations, there is no guarantee that a comprehensive agreement to end the war will be reached.
“There may be disagreements between Israel and the United States regarding the requirements for ending the war. Similarly, some factions of Iran’s ruling elite may resist any concessions that Iran is expected to offer to meet American demands,” Habibi said.
