US President Donald Trump said the US was engaged in “productive” negotiations with Iran. Iranian officials have publicly denied Trump’s claims, calling them fake news aimed at easing oil prices.
Two senior diplomatic sources in the region told Al Jazeera that behind the scenes, Egypt, Turkiye and Pakistan had established indirect communication channels between US and Iranian officials in the past few days. Still, even as diplomacy appears to have some glimmers of hope, experts remain skeptical about the prospect of a ceasefire, as the parties to the conflict remain far apart.
Iran’s leadership’s stance on what concessions to wring from the United States appears to have hardened since the start of the war on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran and killed then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
The United States and Israel claim that Iran’s military capabilities have been severely “degraded” due to constant attacks since then, with the Pentagon saying 90 percent of Iran’s missile capabilities have been eliminated. But Iran has shown that it can fire accurately when it wants.
Hundreds of ships remain paralyzed in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil exports pass. And Iran is adopting an “eye for an eye” policy across the region to re-establish deterrence and ensure action against any threat.
Just last week, shortly after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars oil field, Iranian forces attacked Qatar’s main gas fields, wiping out 17 percent of its export capacity. After the attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear power plant, two Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated Israel’s defense systems and hit the southern cities of Arad and Dimona, injuring more than 180 people.
Experts say Iran’s current objective is not just a ceasefire, but to restore deterrence and establish a post-war order that will ensure long-term economic and security.
Iran’s new red line
Iranian political and military officials have said in recent days that they want repatriated payments, firm guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again, and a new regulatory framework for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based International Policy Center, said the Iranian government will seek to end the war on its own terms, extracting sanctions relief, reparations and economic leverage.
“This stranglehold in the Strait of Hormuz now gives them the idea, ‘Maybe we can charge tolls like other places in the world.’ Those discussions are happening in Iran,” Mortazavi said.
Analysts say Iran is unlikely to give up its influence without significant concessions. This is especially true given that Iran feels that the war has provided it with economic relief that diplomacy could not. On Friday, the Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions on the purchase of 140 million barrels of Iranian crude oil by sea, aimed at easing oil prices.
What does the US want?
One of the various reasons the US president listed to justify starting a war against Iran was to stop Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb, despite claiming to have destroyed Tehran’s nuclear program during last year’s 12-day war.
President Trump said Monday that he still wants Iran to give up more than 400 kilograms of near-weapon-grade enriched uranium. Iranian officials said the stock was buried under the rubble of one of the nuclear facilities attacked by the United States.
The United States has previously called on Tehran to eliminate its ballistic missile program and end support for armed groups across the region. The US government is now proposing that Iran keep 1,000 intermediate-range missiles, a change from its previous request, according to one of the two sources who spoke to Al Jazeera.
However, any diplomatic breakthrough would have to come in the face of a complete lack of trust on the part of Iran. President Trump has twice bombed Iran while his special envoy was negotiating with Iranian representatives, in June 2025 and February 2026, and has repeatedly said his goal is regime change.
Questions about Iranian negotiators
It is also unclear who in Iran will be in charge of direct or indirect negotiations with Washington after U.S. and Israeli attacks killed prominent members of Iran’s leadership, including Ali Larijani, who was an interlocutor with many other countries’ mediators.
On Tuesday, Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolgadol as Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Zolgadol is a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and has been secretary of the Consultative Expediency Council since 2023. His appointment suggests that any negotiations with Iran will more closely align with the Revolutionary Guards’ threat perception and priorities, said Babak Vahdad, a political analyst specializing in Iran.
“Frankly, this looks more like a regime preparing to deal with protracted conflict than one preparing for compromise,” Vahada said.
Some experts argue that President Trump’s decision to postpone the attack on Iran earlier this week was aimed at calming oil prices, which have soared more than 50% since the war began, while waiting for thousands of U.S. Marines to arrive in the Middle East. Last week, 2,500 Marines and an amphibious assault ship were sent to the area. In mid-March, the Trump administration also ordered the deployment of another amphibious assault ship, Tripoli, based in Japan and believed to be carrying thousands more Marines.
President Trump remains vague about whether he plans to send troops there, but he is mulling the idea of seizing Iran’s Kharg Island in the northern Gulf, where 90% of Iran’s oil is exported.
“Diplomatic negotiations and what I see on the ground are two different things,” said Abdulkhalek Abdullah, a political science professor in the United Arab Emirates.
Abdullah said Gulf states and other international partners would never accept a scenario in which Iran maintains sea control of the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that would give Iran the upper hand in Gulf energy exports for the foreseeable future.
And with Iran unlikely to reduce its influence over the strait, few diplomatic solutions remain. “It is the duty of the international community to take back the straits, and there is only one way to do that: military means,” Abdullah said.
