The US envoy has called in writing for the complete disarmament of Hamas and all Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip, as part of a plan to ensure what experts call Hamas’s complete “political surrender.”
The document, submitted by US President Donald Trump’s Peace Commission during a meeting in Cairo in mid-March, advances America’s vision for the controversial enclave as Israel’s ongoing war and military occupation continues to ravage the territory and its 2 million residents in the aftermath of a two-year genocidal campaign that killed more than 72,000 people, mostly children and women. Thousands more are believed to be missing, buried under rubble or dead.
According to media reports, the proposal advances President Trump’s 20-point plan centered on the second phase of October’s U.S.-brokered Gaza “ceasefire” agreement. Under the US framework, Israeli forces, which currently occupy more than half of the enclave, would withdraw and reconstruction would begin only after Hamas and other armed groups handed over their weapons.
Nikolai Mladenov, Trump’s special envoy to the Gaza Peace Commission, appeared before the UN Security Council on Tuesday and urged Palestinian factions to accept the framework “without delay.” He insisted that the disarmament process is based on “reciprocity” and said that “decommissioning will proceed in parallel with phased withdrawal.”
But rather than a genuine diplomatic proposal, Palestinian factions and political observers see the US plan as a coercive ultimatum aimed at circumventing previous agreements and imposing a unilateral reality.
Wessam Afifa, a Gaza-based political analyst who has been closely following the Cairo meeting, said the proposed text was presented more as a “threat message” than a negotiating initiative.
Afifa noted that the new US approach abandons Israeli-US obligations established under previous agreements in favor of a blanket demand for the surrender of all weapons, including personal firearms, directly linking the enclave’s much-needed reconstruction to this situation.
He pointed to three major shifts in U.S. strategy in Gaza, currently being pushed by President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and mediators, who are trying to force a new reality on the ground.
“Militarization” of NCAG: The National Commission for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), established under UN Security Council Resolution 2803 to oversee the day-to-day civilian reconstruction of the enclave, has undergone changes to its mandate. Mladenov confirmed at the United Nations that the commission had begun “screening several thousand civilian police candidates.” Afifa said this was a clear attempt to impose an early security role on the organization before responding to humanitarian disasters, turning it into an enforcement tool rather than a purely civilian administration. ‘Unilateral security principle’: Despite Mladenov’s claims of reciprocity, Afifa warned that the mediator was reducing the diplomatic process to a single condition: Palestinian disarmament. “Israel will be given the freedom to carry out security operations against any perceived threat,” Afifah said. He pointed out that at the same time, Palestinians are being asked to hand over their weapons without receiving concrete guarantees such as reconstruction, cessation of military operations, or Israeli withdrawal. Reconstruction “in stages”: The plan aims to treat the Palestinian territories with “division.” Reconstruction will be linked to disarmament. Areas deemed to have surrendered their weapons will receive aid, while areas suspected of possessing weapons will be isolated and treated as “rogue zones.”
After all, Afifa argued that these conditions circumvent the previously agreed phasing framework. “Gaza is being forced to pay a political price for the ongoing war with Iran and Lebanon,” Afifa said. “The aim is to establish this regional axis, and now is the time to make Gaza pay some of the price.”
Rival armed groups and international forces
U.S. officials have suggested that Hamas could be offered amnesty and targeted investments if it and its allies surrender their weapons. Mladenov announced at the United Nations that a decommissioning framework has been developed with guarantors including the United States, Egypt, Turkiye and Qatar, and that countries such as Indonesia, Morocco and Kazakhstan are sending troops to the Interim International Stabilization Force (ISF).
However, Hamas and its allied resistance groups remain deeply suspicious of both security and financial commitments.
Sources close to Hamas say it is highly unlikely that Hamas will give up its rifles, fearing vulnerability to rival militant groups operating in Gaza, some reportedly backed by Israel, Reuters reported.
Although the U.S. plan calls for the disarmament of all groups, Hamas fears that Israel will turn a blind eye to, or even actively arm, rival clan-based militias to guard the Strip.
Moreover, Palestinian analysts and sectarian leaders insist that the financial incentives promised by Washington are simply non-existent. President Trump raised about $7 billion in recovery pledges in February, mainly from Gulf states, but only a small portion has been realized through the U.S.-backed NCAG fund.
The escalating regional conflict that began with the February 28 attack on Iran by the United States and Israel has also stalled donor mechanisms and significantly complicated financial logistics.
For all these reasons, the chances of success for a US-led diplomatic path seeking disarmament for reconstruction are limited, and Hamas and its allies demand that the first phase of the October ceasefire agreement, with Israeli withdrawal and the entry of unconditional aid, be implemented before the arms issue is taken up, Afifa said.
Some 1.4 million Palestinians remain displaced across the Strip as Washington and Tel Aviv attempt to engineer Hamas’ political surrender. For them, such diplomatic measures have brought no relief, and their day-to-day survival depends solely on the arrival of aid as Israel’s military occupation continues.
