Satellite image of Qeshm Island, Hormozgan Province, Iran, within the Strait of Hormuz region, January 17, 2026.
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The United States is preparing to send thousands more troops to the Middle East, raising speculation about a ground attack on Iran amid conflicting accounts of peace talks.
The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to send about 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, along with two Marine Expeditionary Units, to the Middle East to support military operations in Iran.
Military experts said the number of additional troops deployed to the region appears to be consistent with plans for individual, time-limited operations rather than sustained ground operations.
This has drawn attention to Iran’s two strategic islands and raised questions about a potential move to seize the Islamic republic’s nuclear materials.
White House press secretary Anna Kelly told CNBC in an emailed statement: “All announcements regarding deployment come from the Department of the Army. As we have said, President Trump always has a full range of military options at his disposal.”
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel Davis estimated that there are probably only 4,000 to 5,000 “trigger pullers,” or ground troops, deployed.
“That’s enough to capture a small target for a period of time. Even with the 82nd Airborne Division, you have to understand that it’s a quick reaction force that provides a very quick response on the ground, but only before something bigger comes from behind it,” Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.
“I’ve never seen any evidence that a force of any size was even considered, much less alerted, prepared, equipped, and trained that it would need to go. … It would take months.”
Qeshm Island, Kharg Island and Nuclear Materials
Davis said there are three theoretical possibilities the United States could pursue given the limited number of deployed ground forces.
The first possibility is to seize the island of Qeshm, located “in the horseshoe bend of the Strait of Hormuz,” Davis said.
Qeshm Island is located off the southern coast of Iran and is the largest island in the Persian Gulf. The arrow-shaped island, located near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, has emerged as a potential US target following reports that anti-ship missiles, sea mines, drones and attack craft are stored in underground tunnels.
Davis said a second target could be Kharg Island, the center of Iran’s oil industry, and a third scenario is a raid to capture more than 400 kilograms of reprocessed material if the U.S. were able to locate it and there was enough concentration to make the raid viable.
Kharg Island, also known as the “oil lifeline,” is a coral island located approximately 25 miles off the coast of mainland Iran.
It is estimated that around 90% of the country’s crude oil exports pass through the Strait before tankers pass through it. The island’s economic importance to Iran makes it particularly vulnerable to the threat of military action, but analysts say seizing the island would likely require a ground force operation, something the United States has so far appeared reluctant to undertake.
“The whole idea is to deny Iran the ability to use those islands,” Kevin Donegan, a retired vice admiral and former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, told CNBC’s “Morning Call” on Wednesday.
“A lot of things can come at us from mines, missiles, cruise missiles… but a lot of it has already been cleared or has been significantly degraded. So this mission is absolutely doable. The real question is how long it will take to do it and when we can restore flow,” he added.
A leading lawmaker in Tehran said on Wednesday that he expected a possible attack from “enemies of Iran” seeking to seize one of the country’s islands.
“All movements of the enemy are under the full surveillance of our military,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in X, according to Google Translate.
“If they step out of line, all critical infrastructure of countries in the region will become the target of unrestrained and relentless attack,” he added.
The U.S. military is not designed to fight long-term ground wars.
Reuben Stewart, senior ground warfare fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank, said the number of U.S. troops preparing to deploy is not consistent with sustained ground operations.
“What is noticeably lacking is the heavy armor, logistical depth, and command structure needed for a long-term ground war. In practical terms, this is a force that can move quickly and selectively, but it is not a force that can sustain operations deep in Iran or over extended periods of time,” Stewart told CNBC via email.
“Seizing Kharg Island is technically feasible, but would be escalatory given the centrality of Iran’s oil exports. By contrast, securing Iran’s nuclear material would require a much larger and more sustained ground presence, making it the least practical option for this force,” it added.
A man holds an Iranian flag depicting the faces of Iran’s late and new supreme leaders Ali and Mojtaba Khamenei along Enhrab (Revolution) Square in central Tehran on March 25, 2026.
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Stewart said the relatively limited level of deployment is perhaps best understood as a means of coercion, as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to increase its negotiating power and signal that it has options if diplomacy fails.
The White House said President Trump has had “productive” discussions with Iran over the past three days, adding that military operations in Iran were conducted “ahead of schedule.”
However, Iran has repeatedly denied holding talks with the US government.
