Four years ago, Wales followed a similar path to their current one, qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar via the play-offs.
They followed that up with a 2-1 win over Austria in the semi-finals and a nerve-wracking 1-0 win over Ukraine in the play-off final. In both games, Wales enjoyed home advantage in Cardiff and the path remains the same in 2026, with home advantage still in place.
Apart from the joy and pride that the current Wales team will get from qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, if Wales succeed in the play-offs it will be a huge moment in the country’s football history. They have never previously played in back-to-back World Cups, and if they qualify, they will continue to qualify for major tournaments for the 10th year in a row, including the 2016 and 2020 Euros and the 2022 World Cup.
Wales will also host the opening match of Euro 2028, with five other matches to be held in Cardiff. Not bad for a country with a population of only 3 million people over a dozen years.
Will Wilson be the difference-maker against Bosnia?
Harry Wilson has been involved in seven goals in Wales’ last five games
But Wales must first beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, which will not be easy. How they overcome Bosnia could depend on a moment of magic, and from the Welsh perspective, that magic could come from Harry Wilson, one of the Premier League’s standout players this season.
The 29-year-old was in excellent form for Fulham and sensational for Wales. In the national team, even if Wilson does not score goals, he provides assists and often does both. He has scored five goals and provided two assists in his last five games for Wales.
I don’t want to say it too loudly, but Wales have managed to cope without Gareth Bale, and it’s Wilson who has stepped up.
Wales head coach Craig Bellamy believes Wilson has developed naturally into a highly talented player.
“He’s a very good player,” Bellamy said. “Sometimes it hits home for players too. Usually the older you get, not just as a footballer, but as a person, you get wiser and wiser.
“We definitely see the signs on the soccer pitch. His soccer IQ is very high. His positioning, the way he approaches the game, his reading of the game, his understanding of the game.”
“I definitely see him going to another level. It gives him more time, more space, and he finds himself in the areas where he can do the most damage to the opposition team. And with his ability, we are seeing the benefits of that.”
If Wales and Wilson can get him into the right position to influence games, Bosnia will be in trouble.
It is clear that Wilson will be in the spotlight after his form in the Premier League and in Wales, and there is no doubt that dark defensive tactics may be used to stop him against Bosnia. That’s how Wilson will handle that attention, and his manager is a big believer in “be patient, opportunities will come, it’s just when they’re ready to execute.” To that end, you feel the crowd inside the Cardiff City Stadium themselves need patience, and as an attacking threat, you only need to get lucky once.
This game won’t be a 7-1 rout like the last time Wales played and beat North Macedonia, and the scoreline will probably be a tighter affair.
Statistics showing Bellamy’s traces
Craig Bellamy and Harry Wilson are helping Wales move on from the days of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey
The scoreline may be close, but Bellamy will be particular about Wales’ dominance of possession, especially at home. Bellamy doesn’t want his team to be as flashy as Manchester City or Barcelona – he doesn’t expect that – but he does expect his players to work incredibly hard without the ball.
Bellamy loves player profiling and useful stats, but there’s one statistic he’s extremely proud of. Wales are ranked first among European nations for their ability to win the ball back within five seconds of losing it. That’s what Bellamy wants, and as he points out, you can’t do anything without the ball, so why not get it as soon as possible?
In the 20 months that Bellamy has been in charge of Wales, he has looked to establish a distinct identity as Wales’ USP, and his possession of the ball has been very distinctive for Wales.
Wales had two epic games against the top tier nation of Belgium during their qualifying campaign, and while it was certainly a defeat, it was a fantastic game that swung both ways, 4-3 away and 4-2 at home.
Wales had an average possession rate of 64% in these two matches. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a similar high possession rate against Bosnia. Wales don’t rest or breathe once Bosnia have the ball and go looking for it quickly. If not, the head coach might say something.
Ampadu is presented with the Welsh armband.
Ethan Ampadu named Wales captain on Thursday
On the pitch, Bellamy needs a leader. As with many great clubs and national teams, it can refer not just to one leader, but to multiple players who can provide a calm, clear-sighted, almost statesman-like authority in the moment at a particular point in the game.
Perhaps Wales have a long-term replacement for Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey in Ethan Ampadu. Ampadu, 25, currently manages Leeds United in the Premier League and is also their captain.
A player of his stature has once again captained Wales, and was understandably self-deprecating when asked about his role as captain.
He said, “I’d like to think that whether I’m wearing an armband or not, I’m going to play the same way, try to lead the same way, and nothing’s going to change.”
“I might have to talk to the referees a little bit more, but in terms of actually playing and trying to lead, it’s going to be the same as I’ve played under different captains in the past.”
He may be young, but he oozes experience, having amassed well over 50 caps for Wales and having featured in three of Europe’s top five leagues: the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A. He previously captained the team against Wales and also captained the team against Bosnia.
Will Wales celebrate their World Cup play-off semi-final against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday?
The role of a captain is often overlooked, but it is extremely important because it is during moments of crisis that the person entrusted with the armband can demonstrate their strength. Wales and Bellamy plan and hope to eliminate moments of crisis should such moments arise, but Ampadu is a master at stepping up with authority. It’s the way he speaks, and perhaps his ability to influence referees and keep his teammates organized, calm and focused, could be the difference. Leeds clearly think they have a special talent and Wales wholeheartedly agree.
If anyone had any doubts about what was expected of Wales under Bellamy, perhaps he subtly put it out there before the play-offs began – that Wales should be in the World Cup this summer, and that the World Cup would be better if Wales were involved, given what the team brings and, no doubt, the tens of thousands of Welsh fans who will be fooled into attending the tournament.
Bellamy knows he can’t get ahead of himself. First and foremost in Bosnia, his confidence in the players and the team is very high and as far as he is concerned they are at a level where they can survive and improve in the World Cup.
