Experts have warned that the unprecedented heatwave that has scorched the West over the past two weeks is also setting the stage for a potentially dangerous wildfire season.
Unrelenting heat that shattered monthly temperature records has virtually wiped out mountain snowpack from California’s Sierra Nevada to the Colorado Rockies. Jennifer Kay, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder, said the region is entering “uncharted territory” as it enters wildfire season.
John Abatzoglou, a wildfire researcher at the University of California, Merced, agreed: “There are a lot of warning signs flashing at us.” This early snowmelt increases the risk of an earlier, more severe wildfire season, he said. Even highland forests are expected to dry out much faster than normal, making them more vulnerable to the occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions during the warmer months.
A new study published March 23 in the journal Environment Research Letters shows that snow is melting earlier in the West and is expected to worsen due to human-induced climate change, resulting in more area burned and more severe wildfires. Such fires can cause ecosystem changes that persist long after a particular fire has extinguished.
Kay visited her university’s snow observation site in the Rocky Mountains this week and found only patches of slimy snow melting rapidly. he told CNN. And this rapid snowmelt started with historically low snowfall in the first place.
“The fact that we’re now melting before we reach the historic peak of snowpack on the ground tells you everything you need to know,” she said of the wildfire risk.
“I think we really need to move away from thinking of fire season as just a summertime concern. It becomes a year-round concern, especially when there’s no snow on the ground,” Kaye said.
But this year is truly special, said Colorado climatologist Russ Schumacher.
“It seems unprecedented that we have had this combination of low snowpack, extreme heat, and rapid snowmelt so early in spring,” Schumacher said. This has raised concerns about wildfires, but also about water resources, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, which has been experiencing perennial drought.
Schumacher said he was concerned about the possibility of more severe wildfires in the coming months compared to wetter, cooler years. “Early melting of spring snowpack is strongly correlated with more severe fires later in the season, and that’s exactly what’s worrisome,” he said, citing new research.
Extremely early snowmelt begins earlier in the year, resulting in a longer fire season. “We’re fast forwarding into fire season,” Abatzoglou said.
There was one important caveat that each scientist pointed out. That means weather conditions between now and the end of the warm season are unstable. A particularly dangerous fire season is possible, but there are no guarantees, as spring and summer weather greatly influences the onset and persistence of fires.
Temporary weather patterns can significantly raise or lower short-term fire risk, and there is still room for changes in weather patterns that could bring cooler conditions and even wetter regimes to the West. If this happens, some of the increased wildfire risk could be reduced, if not completely ameliorated.
However, if a warm pattern persists through the winter and spring, the likelihood of a potentially extreme wildfire season increases significantly.
