Smoke rises from a refinery chimney on March 18, 2026 in Linden, New Jersey.
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Oil prices rose on Monday as Yemen’s Houthis fired a missile at Israel and US President Donald Trump reportedly wanted to seize Iranian oil, deepening concerns about growing risks to Middle East energy flows.
May futures prices for Brent crude rose more than 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel in early Asian time, according to LSEG data, with the international benchmark heading for a record monthly gain.
US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, President Trump said his preferred option in Iran was to “take the oil,” likening it to previous U.S. actions in Venezuela, where the U.S. effectively took control of the country’s oil sector after detaining leader Nicolas Maduro.
His comments came as fighting between US and Israeli forces and Iran enters its fifth week, with attacks spreading across the region, increasing risks to energy infrastructure and causing oil prices to soar.
Crude oil prices since the beginning of the year
Yemen’s Houthis announced on Saturday that they had fired a missile at Israel, becoming directly involved in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran for the first time.
Spokesman Yahya Salih said in a post on X that the group fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it called important Israeli military targets in support of Iran and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The attack marks a further escalation in the conflict that began with the US and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28th.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said global stock markets were beginning to reflect a scenario in which oil prices and interest rates would “rise for an extended period of time” as the risk of protracted conflict increases.
He warned that continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deepen the market backlash and increase recession risks, and that uncertainty surrounding the conflict, including the possibility of increased U.S. involvement, would likely keep volatility high until oil flows normalize.
“The speed and scale of this move highlights how quickly energy markets are reassessing geopolitical risks, challenging previous efforts to anchor both oil and bond markets and reinforcing the risk of sustained disruption in the Strait,” Yardeni said in a note released Monday.
David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategies, said markets are increasingly pricing in a more aggressive U.S. response, including the possibility of a “ground war” and a move to seize Iran’s key export hub, Kharg Island, through which about 90% of the country’s oil flows.
He warned that such measures would effectively cut off Iran’s dollar income but risked a full-scale escalation, with Iran likely to retaliate by targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf.
This expansion could rapidly spill over into global supply routes. Roche pointed to the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, which carries about 5 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, and warned that any disruption at Yemen’s Houthi-held Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint could severely limit exports.
He added that even under the alternative route through the Suez Canal, production capacity would be significantly reduced, with 4 million to 5 million barrels per day potentially leaving the market.
—CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.
