US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he wants to “take oil” from Iran, as the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month.
On Monday, President Trump threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil wells, unless Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a virtual blockade for weeks and has sparked a global energy crisis.
The Trump administration has not disclosed a clear goal behind its military operation against Iran, the world’s largest oil producer and under U.S. sanctions for decades.
Here’s a breakdown of what President Trump said, Iran’s oil reserves, and whether he can accept it.
What is President Trump saying about Iranian oil?
President Trump told the Financial Times that getting Iran’s “oil is a priority” and that U.S. forces may seize Iran’s export hub, Kharg Island.
Kharg is a 22 square kilometer (8.5 square mile) coral outcrop in Iran’s Bushehr province. It is heavily guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and access to the island is restricted to those with official security clearance.
Kharg handles 90% of Iran’s total oil exports, handling around 1.5 million barrels daily.
On March 14, President Trump announced that the US Air Force had bombed Iranian military facilities on the island.
“For common sense reasons, I have chosen not to wipe out the island’s oil infrastructure. However, if Iran or anyone else takes any action to disrupt free and safe shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Critics say the Trump administration was emboldened by the success of a brazen military operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas in January. The US government says it now controls Venezuela’s oil exports.
Earlier this month, President Trump claimed that 100 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil had been delivered to a US refinery in Houston, Texas. He added that another 100 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil will be supplied.
Relations between Venezuela, which boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and the United States had deteriorated under former President Hugo Chávez, who decided to nationalize the oil sector. Relations further deteriorated under Maduro, who succeeded Chávez in 2013. Venezuela’s current interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has since opened the sector to private investment.
How much oil does Iran have?
Iran is one of the world’s largest oil producers.
The country has the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and third-largest crude oil reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Iran holds approximately 24 percent of the Middle East and 12 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, with approximately 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.
It is the ninth largest oil producing country in the world and the fourth largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing approximately 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Before the war, Iran exported about 2 million barrels of crude oil and refined fuel every day, but exports have fallen sharply since President Trump imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018, during his first term in office. The Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed under US President Barack Obama in 2015, placed limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief that had been in place for decades.
The United States severed diplomatic relations with Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and subsequent hostage crisis that toppled pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Can the US seize Iranian oil?
The Pentagon is preparing for limited ground operations in Iran, which could include raids on Kharg Island and coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials cited by the Washington Post.
The plan stops short of a full invasion and could include attacks by special operations or conventional infantry forces, the newspaper reported on Saturday.
However, even if the United States were to invade or occupy Khalgh Island, it would not give the United States access to Iranian oil.
To access Iranian oil, the United States would need to capture Iranian oil production sites and refineries. Essentially, the US needs to occupy mainland Iran.
What would happen if America got its hands on Iranian oil?
According to World Bank data, Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 was approximately $457.5 billion.
Iran’s net oil export revenue in the same year was estimated at $53 billion.
This export value is equivalent to about 12% of Iran’s GDP, but export earnings and GDP are not directly comparable.
At the same time, if the United States lifts sanctions after seizing Iranian oil, more Iranian oil could flow into the world market, causing oil prices to fall.
Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The United States first imposed sanctions on Iran in November 1979 after Iranian students attacked the embassy in Tehran and took American hostages. The hostage crisis ended more than a year later with the release of dozens of Americans.
World oil prices have soared due to the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. Benchmark Brent crude rose more than 3% on Monday to $116 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two weeks. Prewar oil prices were about $65 per barrel.
Has the US ever tried to interfere with Iranian oil?
Yes; this is not the first time the US has shown interest in Iranian oil.
In 1953, the regime of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s first democratically elected prime minister, collapsed. organized by the CIA He staged a coup after nationalizing the British-controlled company Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of today’s BP.
The US government framed this operation (codenamed Operation Ajax) as a Cold War necessity to keep Iran and its energy resources out of Soviet hands.
Although the coup restored and entrenched the Shah’s rule, this turning point still troubles relations between Iran and the West.
Neighboring Iraq’s oil revenues remain effectively under US control, more than two decades after the US invaded the Middle Eastern country. Iraq’s oil revenues are deposited into U.S. Federal Reserve accounts before they arrive in Baghdad.
