Hong Kong/Islamabad —
As the Gulf War enters its second month, dragging down the global economy with no end in sight, questions are deepening over what role China, a global power and Iran’s diplomatic partner, intends to play.
China’s potential role was in the spotlight this week after Pakistan’s foreign minister, Islamabad, visited Beijing on Tuesday and met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi. The talks come as Islamabad strengthens its position as a peace broker in the conflict.
In a statement on “restoring peace” released on Tuesday, the two countries called for an “immediate ceasefire,” peace talks “as soon as possible” and a lasting peace supported by the United Nations.
In a five-point initiative announced after what Islamabad described as a “several hours of engagement” between Dar and Wang, the two countries said “China and Pakistan support the parties involved to begin talks.”
Pakistan says it is ready to host US-Iran talks ‘within days’
The initiative is the Chinese government’s most thoroughgoing clarification to date on how conflicts should be resolved. Securing shipping routes is also required. Cessation of attacks against civilians and non-military targets. and protect the sovereignty and security of both Iran and the Gulf states.
However, when this position is broadly expressed, it also raises the question of what concrete measures the Chinese government will take in a future peace process. How deeply is the company willing to engage in a conflict unfolding in a volatile region where relations with both partners are in the balance?
Official Pakistani sources told CNN that one of the things Dar might discuss during his time in China was the possibility of Beijing acting as a guarantor to secure a peace agreement.
Two Pakistani sources also confirmed that earlier this week, quadrilateral talks between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan were underway in Islamabad, and that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari held a meeting at the Chinese embassy to discuss the ongoing regional situation.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesperson did not respond to questions on Tuesday about the talks with China, saying the talks were too “delicate and sensitive” for the ministry to make hypothetical statements. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.
Iran is sending mixed signals. According to Iranian state media, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that he was willing to halt the fighting under certain conditions, in particular “the necessary guarantees to prevent a recurrence of aggression.” At the same time, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragushi said Iran was ready for “at least six months” of war.
Pakistan has offered to hold talks with neighboring Iran and the United States, taking advantage of its position as a major power with stable relations with both countries. Dar’s visit to China on Tuesday was at Wang’s invitation, according to a statement from the two foreign ministries.
The Chinese government, which positions itself as a voice of peace and a responsible party to the conflict that has disrupted the global economy, is likely to tread carefully.
“China has every incentive to appeal to diplomatic mediation,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “China wants the world to see the contrast: while the United States creates chaos and chaos, China positions itself as a force for de-escalation, stability, and peace.”
“But what the Chinese government actually wants to contribute materially is another matter,” he added.
This is not the first time China has attempted to position itself as a peacebuilder in international conflicts.
The Chinese government hosted the talks following border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia last year. It has also made multi-pronged proposals to end the war in Ukraine, but their effectiveness has been limited, with critics calling the efforts more an exercise in China’s image than an honest attempt at reconciliation.
As for the current conflict, Chinese strategists may see an upside to America’s preoccupation with an economically disastrous war that undermines global credibility, even as Beijing worries about the impact on its export-driven economy.
The Chinese government is also highly unlikely to accept any kind of guarantor role that would require it to provide military assets or guarantees to back up peace. In addition, it is widely seen as having limited influence on security issues in the Middle East.
It is not clear what such an arrangement would entail. A diplomatic source familiar with the quadrilateral talks in Islamabad told CNN the issue was raised as the four countries involved explore different ways to “bridge the gap between different stakeholders in creative ways.”
Such an arrangement would be at odds with China’s wariness of military alliances. Beijing will also be wary of agreements that require monitoring and punishment of ceasefire violations, especially those that could draw China into conflict with the United States.
China maintains a decades-old mutual defense treaty with North Korea, but has traditionally eschewed alliances and sought an overhaul of the U.S.-led international security model.
“Indeed, as China’s hard and soft power grows, there is a growing domestic debate about whether Beijing should deploy its capabilities more aggressively to expand its global influence and strengthen its position as a leading power. Even if so, Iran is unlikely to be the venue for such investments,” Zhao said.
Iranian photojournalist speaks to CNN from inside Iran
China has taken a cautious diplomatic line over the more than four weeks of war in the Gulf, calling for a ceasefire and holding numerous meetings and talks on the issue. But it also makes clear where it believes the impetus to end conflict and its impact on the global economy lies.
“The one who ties the bell must be the one to untie it,” China’s special envoy for the Middle East, Zuijun, said last week in response to a question about the circumstances under which a ceasefire might occur, in an apparent reference to the United States and Israel.
Chinese analysts also reflected Beijing’s keen awareness of the deep challenges in resolving the conflict, where there is little trust and much hostility between the two countries.
“China is calling for an immediate ceasefire between the two countries, but I don’t think anyone will actually heed such advice at this stage. For the United States, it’s already in a dilemma that it has to overcome, and for Iran, it needs retaliation that will at least save face,” said Retired Colonel Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
China may not participate in peace talks as Pakistan has already taken a position on peace talks, he added.
China played a key role in brokering improved relations between Iran and long-time rival Saudi Arabia in 2023. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s alternative vision for international security also includes China as a mediator.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, said China’s relationships with major powers in the conflict, including both Iran and the United States and Pakistan, could help it gain access to all parties in peace talks.
But China is also weighing the impact of diplomacy on its priorities, particularly US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to China this May and other upcoming diplomacy between the two leaders scheduled for this year.
China may be trying to play a role in goodwill toward the United States, but it is also wary of war straining its relationship with the United States.
“We don’t want this trust to be undermined by Iran or other phenomena,” Wang of Renmin University said, referring to future diplomatic exchanges.
