Football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knowes provides insight and shares his best bets for the Good Friday Sky Bet Championship fixture.
Middlesbrough v Millwall, Friday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Are Middlesbrough teetering on the worst possible time?
They have won just two of their last seven Championship matches and their seven-point lead over Ipswich is now just two points. And who will come on this rail? Only Millwall can take three points and jump ahead of Middlesbrough. This is becoming serious.
One key aspect of Boro’s recent form is that the underlying data from their last seven games remains very strong. Over the last seven games, they have won very comfortably by all expected goals, with an xG advantage figure of +1.4 per game, which is a huge turnaround. You’ll probably associate it with a team that won a title.
They need to get back on the promotion train here because the direction is a little different.
Score prediction: 2-1
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The Sky Sports Essential EFL podcast covers the promotion race in the Championship
Birmingham v Blackburn, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
If you’re looking for a punchy cut to this game, Market in the first half could be the place to play, especially given Birmingham’s tendency to pop out of St Andrew’s traps.
There’s a very strong data perspective here, with 6/4 by Sky Bet on Birmingham standing out as a notable bet at half-time.
No team in the Championship has more expected goals before the break than a respectable 18.58. And it’s not just the underlying data that speaks for itself. Only Hull City and Ipswich have scored more home goals before half-time, with Birmingham leading the way when it comes to converting intent into real pressure.
This is not to fully favor Birmingham for 90 minutes, where inconsistency can creep in. It’s about isolating the obvious advantage of a fast start and attacking the specific market you’re in directly.
Score prediction: 2-1
Charlton v Bristol City, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
In soccer, there are some promises that make you squint and pay attention. Then there are the ones that make you scratch your head and wonder what the hell is going on.
Roy Hodgson appears.
His arrival at Bristol City, 44 years after he first left the club, had all the hallmarks of a transfer aimed at generating headlines rather than immediate results.
Hodgson himself admits he doesn’t know much about the current squad, which isn’t ideal preparation for the intense Championship competition. Add in the fact that he is inheriting a group that has been sluggish due to injuries, and this manager looks more vulnerable than reinvigorated. At Sky Bet, home wins are 23/20.
Score prediction: 2-0
Leicester v Preston, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Motivation is everything at this stage of the championship season and you won’t see a greater contrast than what we have here.
On the one hand, Leicester City are scrapping for their lives. Preston North End, on the other hand, were drifting towards the goal line with just a few moments remaining.
Leicester’s situation is simple. Results are everything.
Performance can be postponed if needed. The key is to dig in, find the moments, and score points on the board. That’s where Gary Rowett’s influence could be crucial. Throughout his career, he has built a reputation for pulling teams together to get results, especially in high-pressure situations like this one. It’s not always pretty, but it’s often effective.
I hope for a low-score home victory.
Score prediction: 1-0
Norwich vs Portsmouth, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Since Christmas, no team has picked up more Championship points than Norwich City, who won 12 of their 17 games following Philippe Clement’s remarkable comeback.
The Canaries have kept seven clean sheets in 12 league games, conceding just five goals. The results are supported by data.
However, the market is dangling evens on Sky Bet against struggling Portsmouth. Portsmouth have lost three on the spin and five of their last six, having just been beaten 6-1 by QPR. Pompey’s key man Ebou Adams also missed the trip to Carrow Road due to injury. A home win is very expensive.
Score prediction: 3-0 | Jones knows best bet: Norwich to win (even on Sky Bet)
Oxford vs Hull, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports Football – play SUPER 6 here!
Good game for Oxford in terms of set pieces. They have generated 3.6 expected goals from set pieces in their last five games, which accounts for over 65 percent of their total xG. In short, this is a team that offers great performance for the money when supporting the usual set-piece based markets.
Hull have conceded the second-highest xG from set-pieces this season at 18.05, conceding 15 goals from that route. Michal Helik was the man who scored at Sky Bet at 10/1 at the time.
He has six shots in his last five starts, including the opener in Oxford’s 3-1 win over Preston. Herik also started seven games against Hull, scoring three goals.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones Knows best bet: Michal Helik to score (10/1, Sky Bet)
QPR v Watford, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Here at Sky Bet at Evens, it’s a very high bet that both teams will score and score at least 2.5 goals.
Loftus Road are the highest scoring side of the Championship venues this term, averaging 3.47 goals per game, with 79% of those scoring over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in Watford manager Edward Still’s four away games, averaging a healthy 3.25 goals per game. Both teams will be expected to bring noise and attacking intent in what could be a fun and goal-heavy matchup.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS Best Bet: 2.5 Goals or More & BTTS (Even at Sky Bet)
Sheffield United v Swansea, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
At the moment, opponents are more likely to keep clean sheets at Bramall Lane, which puts us well in a position of great goalscorers.
The host team has finished nine games without conceding a goal at home.
Whether it’s structural issues or lack of focus, teams find ways to overcome them with surprising regularity. So if you’re shopping in the market for a goalscorer at any time, it makes sense to grab the division’s top goalscorer with Sky Bet on 11/4 and re-sign Zan Vipotnik.
The Swansea striker has scored 17 goals this season and there is nothing irregular about his return. His movement in the box is sharp and he has shown he can get many chances and be clinical when those chances fall in front of him.
Score prediction: 1-2
Stoke vs Sheffield Wednesday, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Stoke City have quietly turned into one of the most watched and supported teams in the area in recent weeks, and much of that can be traced back to the return of the classy Million Manhoof.
Since returning seven games ago, Stoke’s attacking power has taken off into a new gear. The numbers speak for themselves. They have scored a ton of goals in those 7 games, averaging 3.7 goals per game, with 6 of the 7 games clearing the 2.5 goal line or higher. It’s no coincidence that the team is playing with more intention and risk. It leads to a large amount of target output.
The key here is to match that tendency with a Stoke side that has an advantage in quality and momentum over a rudderless Sheffield Wednesday, rather than just blindly pushing for goals.
That’s why 10/11 with a Sky bet on Stoke to win and over 2.5 goals is attractive enough.
Score prediction: 3-1
West Brom vs Wrexham, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Supporting the centre-backs and getting on the scoresheet remains my favorite punting pastime.
George Campbell is playing with confidence and is quickly arriving in the box looking to score, as evidenced by his three goals back in his last six games. It’s a pattern driven by increased attacking responsibility from set-pieces and a team playing with renewed energy under new manager James Morrison. He has breathed life into a team that was doomed to trouble not so long ago. Suddenly, West Brom played with purpose and belief, giving themselves a real challenge to survive.
Campbell scores at 10/1 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Coventry vs Derby, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Football – play SUPER 6 here!
Every time you push a promotion, there comes a time when the equation becomes very clear. Just win the match and the rest will be resolved automatically.
Coventry City stands right there. As they charge towards the Championship title, they know that 11 points from their remaining seven games will be enough to secure a return to the Premier League for the first time in 25 years. It is a goal that sharpens the mind and brings out decisive performance.
Friday, April 3rd 7:30pm
Kickoff at 8pm
Derby will look to show for their strong away record of nine road wins in the Championship. But dig a little deeper and there are clear red flags.
None of these wins came against teams that started this round in the top half. They tend to lose against the best teams in this division. At 11/8 on Sky Bet, supporting Coventry to win and over 2.5 goals looks like the sweet spot. If they can come out on top, history has shown that they will not only try to advance, they will try to finish the game in style.
Score prediction: 3-1 | Jones knows Best bet: Coventry win & over 2.5 goals (11/8, Sky Bet)
Jones knows the best bet…
1pt Treble On: Norwich win, over 2.5 goals & BTTS win at QPR vs Watford & Coventry & over 2.5 goals (8/1 with Sky Bet)
1 point for Michal Helik’s goal (10/1 at Sky Bet)
1 point for George Campbell (10/1 at Sky Bet)
Scored with a 0.5 point double in Herrick and Campbell (100/1 on Sky Bet)
