Eight teams will compete for the Wembley semi-finals. Top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides betting insight for all four matches.
Manchester City vs Liverpool, Saturday 12:30pm
Liverpool fans and their hierarchy need to see big performances and results over the next week or Arne Slott will be under serious pressure. This is a big deal for Liverpool, but the market only gives them a 3/1 chance of winning within 90 minutes on Sky Bet. That’s a fair assessment of Manchester City’s chances of reaching an equalizer.
My preferred betting strategy after the international break is to favor the lower scoring first half. It can be a graveyard of goals.
Long-term data supports a decline in the average number of goals scored in the first half of matches after the international break. Over the past 10 Premier League seasons, there have been 1.3 goals per half in all games, but this drops to around 1.1 goals per half after the international break.
There’s also logic behind these numbers, which is important when evaluating patterns in the data since players are traveling the world and may be a little tired in their first game. From a tactical perspective for players and coaches, breaks disrupt the rhythm.
For example, since the first international break in September, 25 of the last 50 Premier League games have been 0-0 at half-time. Amazing strike rate.
Liverpool away in the slot could also be a very stable and safe team in the first half. In the last 15 days that Liverpool have been away, only three goals have been scored in the first half.
The way I play this low-scoring early phase is to use a bet builder. That’s Liverpool having less than 0.5 goals in the first half, meaning Liverpool not scoring in the first half, combined with less than 1.5 total goals in the first half. This brings us to 10/11 on Sky Bet. It’s a hell of a bet.
They also had to make up for the 0-0 halftime situation, which was too big at 3/1.
Score prediction: 2-0
Chelsea vs Port Vale, Saturday 5.30pm
Port Vale win this match 28/1 after 90 minutes. If League One’s bottom side can somehow dispatch Chelsea, it would be one of the biggest upsets in FA Cup history.
Although the betting fever is clearly terrible, the card market is attractive. Chelsea have a big problem with discipline. Only Tottenham and Brighton have been shown more yellow cards than Chelsea (71) in the Premier League this season, and no club has had more people sent off than the Blues (seven). With such a huge mismatch between the teams, Chelsea’s card expectations are low for this match, with offers of 1.5 or more cards at 7/4 on Sky Bet. It’s rare to be able to support Chelsea at such a price in this market.
Score prediction: 3-0
Southampton vs Arsenal, Saturday 8pm
Southampton could be taking advantage of Arsenal’s set-piece machine. They have had a decent run in the Championship, but their record defending set pieces is abysmal. Over the past 21 games, no team has taken more shots from set pieces than the Saints, with 5.5 shots per game. They also lead the team in terms of most goals conceded through this route, with 11 goals in their last 21 games.
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Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has given a hint as to who will line up in Arsenal’s goal against Southampton in the FA Cup – can you guess who it will be?
Cristian Mosquera has started the last two FA Cup games and is likely to be named again as Mikel Arteta revamps his squad, with a trip to Sporting scheduled for the Champions League in midweek. He had a shot in both wins against Mansfield and Wigan. This is Saints’ weakness in that side of the game, and Mosquera is worth more than two shots at 2/1 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-3
West Ham v Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm
There are very interesting dynamics in this game as these clubs rarely get a chance to reach the FA Cup semi-finals, but given the situation in the Premier League neither manager should be too disappointed if they lose.
However, Leeds are not a reliable side away from home, so I’ll be backing West Ham with a 10/11 draw no bet on Sky Bet. This season, they have won just two of their 18 away games in 90 minutes (against Derby and Wolves) and even lost on penalties to Sheffield Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. Daniel Farke’s side are competitive and well-organized in the game, but lack the killer instinct and quality in the final third to break up close matches.
Although West Ham remain in the bottom three, they have been on the rise in the Premier League for several months now under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. They can book a spot at Wembley.
