In a profane post on the Truth social platform, US President Donald Trump threatened to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants if the country did not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by early Wednesday local time.
“Tuesday in Iran is Power Plant Day and Bridge Day rolled into one. There’s no better day than this!!!,” he wrote, before launching into a rant.
This is just the latest in a series of deadlines Trump has offered and then postponed since March 21, when he first threatened to blow up Iranian power plants and energy facilities. But each time, he cited claims that Tehran was pursuing negotiations with Iran to open the strait (which Tehran has repeatedly denied are taking place) to justify extending the announced deadlines.
On Sunday night, President Trump set a concrete new deadline of 8pm ET on Tuesday (midnight GMT on Wednesday), which would be 3:30am Wednesday local time in Iran.
With less than two days left, mediators including Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye are trying to secure at least a partial breakthrough to postpone, if not end, the risk of further military escalation by President Trump.
The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has already killed more than 2,000 people in the country. At the same time, nearly 1,500 people died in Israel’s war against Lebanon, including more than 100 in Iraq, 24 in Israel, and 27 in the Gulf states. The United States has lost 13 service members and on Sunday conducted a high-risk rescue operation to rescue an officer from Iran after an F-15 fighter jet crashed.
But what could a breakthrough between the US and Iran look like, and what are the chances that mediators will be able to reach an agreement by the deadline?
45-day ceasefire proposal
Sources close to the mediator confirmed to Al Jazeera that a 45-day ceasefire is being considered. The idea is to provide a longer period during which Iran and the United States can discuss and negotiate their broader differences, either directly or through a mediator, in order to reach a long-term agreement to end the war.
But Pakistan, officially the central mediator of messages between the United States and Iran, on Monday refused to confirm or deny the 45-day ceasefire plan. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told Al Jazeera: “There are reports of a 45-day ceasefire proposal or a 15-point exchange.” “We do not comment on these individual specific incidents. What we want to say is that the peace process is ongoing.”
President Trump’s chief envoy for talks with Iran, Steve Witkoff, previously acknowledged that Pakistan has inherited the 15-point plan for peace shared by the United States and Iran. The Iranian government had said the US demands under the plan were “extremist” and unacceptable.
The US publication Axios also reported on the proposed 45-day ceasefire.
Officials said mediators were cautious about revealing details of interactions between the U.S. and Iran because of the sensitive nature of the negotiations, especially given the rapidly changing nature of the U.S. government’s stated position.
shorter ceasefire
Sources close to the mediation effort told Al Jazeera that a second proposal to shorten the ceasefire period was also being considered. While this would preclude comprehensive talks aimed at ending the war, it would create an opportunity for the United States and Iran to take confidence-building steps, potentially building momentum for a longer-term ceasefire.
On Monday, Reuters reported that Pakistan-led mediators had shared plans with the United States and Iran for a short-term cessation of fighting, followed by a long-term ceasefire.
The agency said Pakistan’s military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was leading the mediation efforts and was in phone calls throughout Sunday night with U.S. Vice President Vance, Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Under this proposal, Iran would agree to open the Strait of Hormuz (currently, Iran only allows ships from some countries to pass through) until a larger agreement aimed at ending the war is reached.
What is President Trump saying about the ceasefire plan?
The US president continues to warn of a major military escalation and the possibility of a simultaneous cessation of fighting.
President Trump told Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Inst on Sunday that he believes the United States can reach an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday.
“I think we have a good chance tomorrow. They are currently negotiating,” he said.
Reuters also reported that mediating countries are pressuring Iran and the United States to agree to a deal by Monday.
What does Iran say?
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghai confirmed in a press conference on Monday that intermediaries were exchanging messages between Iran and the United States, but did not confirm or deny any specific proposals for a ceasefire.
“Whenever necessary, we will clearly inform you about (the Iranian government’s) announcements,” he said of Iran’s response to the mediator’s proposal, before addressing Trump’s threat. “But negotiations are never compatible with ultimatums and threats to commit crimes and war crimes.”
The United States and Israel have already bombed several oil facilities, universities and hospitals in Iran, as well as pharmaceutical companies and research institutes, with some experts saying the attacks could amount to war crimes. Analysts have warned that blowing up Iranian bridges and power plants en masse, as President Trump has threatened, would almost certainly violate the laws of war.
Iranian officials also said they did not want to be bullied into accepting President Trump’s unilateral deadline.
On Sunday, Iranian Presidential Spokesman Mehdi Tabatabai said the Strait of Hormuz would only reopen after reparations for war damage were paid.
Meanwhile, Axios reported that Iranian officials are concerned that a short-term ceasefire could create a power dynamic similar to that in Gaza or Lebanon. Despite the ceasefires on paper in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel and the United States could continue to attack Iran whenever they wish.
