US Vice President J.D. Vance is in Budapest to drum up support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a member of the Fidesz party who is facing the toughest election in more than a decade.
The White House announced last week that Vance would arrive in Hungary on Tuesday for two days of bilateral talks.
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US President Donald Trump endorsed right-wing leader Orbán in February. Prior to the Hungarian parliamentary elections on April 12, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Hungary in the same month. support.
Kim Lane Schepere, a professor of sociology at Princeton University in the US and a longtime analyst and critic of Orbán’s government, said the trip was aimed at underscoring Trump’s close relationship with his Hungarian counterpart.
“Mr. Orbán will make a big deal about the fact that he has Mr. Trump’s support, and that’s why Mr. Vance is coming,” he said, adding that he was skeptical that Mr. Vance’s visit would have much of an impact on the outcome of the election.
“If you look at Hungarian opinion polls, the opposition is leading by 8 to 12 percentage points, and in some recent polls they are leading by up to 20 percentage points. One visit by a relatively unknown American vice president is not going to change that.”
staunch opposition
Mr. Orban’s 16 years in office have been marked by reforms that critics say have undermined the independence of institutions such as the judiciary and media, and tilted the electoral system in favor of Mr. Orban and his Fidesz party.
But most polls show Mr Orbán, 62, trailing 45-year-old opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza party, despite what the opposition describes as a deeply unbalanced electoral environment.
Magyar is a former high-ranking Fidesz official who left the party two years ago and has emerged as a leading critic of Orbán’s government.
His campaign has focused on corruption, the deterioration of social services, the economic situation and Mr Orban’s combative relationship with the European Union, which has centered on immigration and support for Ukraine.
The European Union suspended billions of euros in funding to Hungary in 2022, citing democratic backsliding and declining judicial independence.
The Magyars pledged warmer relations with European countries and also promised reforms that could lead to the restoration of suspended funds.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has portrayed the rebels as a destabilizing force selling out the country’s interests on behalf of Ukraine and the EU, but Magyar right-leaning politics mean there has been little change in policy on issues such as immigration.
“Magyars are centre-right and basically believe in a lot of what President Orbán has done, except for corruption. In terms of the EU, he’s a bit Eurosceptic, but he wants his money back,” Schepere said.
Blueprint for American Rights
Mr. Orban’s approach to power consolidation and support for far-right politics have muddied relations in Europe, but they have made him a source of inspiration for the American far right and prominent members of the Trump administration, including J.D. Vance.
Hungary has previously hosted the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual summit that brings together individuals and groups from the U.S. right and allies in other countries to discuss the future of the conservative movement.
When CPAC convened in Budapest in 2024, President Trump sent a video praising Mr. Orbán, who “proudly fought on the front lines of the battle to save Western civilization.”
Vance himself has enjoyed a particularly close relationship with Orbán’s government, with shared anger against Muslims, immigrants, universities and other centers of liberal politics helping to solidify that bond.
When he was selected as Trump’s running mate in July 2024, Orbán’s political director posted a photo of himself posing with Vance, with the caption: “A Trump-Vance administration seems like a perfect fit.”
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungary has been at the center of the Trump administration’s shift in European policy, firmly aligned with far-right parties and immigration restrictionists in France, Germany and other countries.
Scheppele said Orbán’s ties to the Trump administration and status as a symbol of the global far right may not be of much use in an election focused primarily on domestic issues.
But he said more concrete steps by the Trump administration, such as pledging U.S. financial aid if Orbán wins, could improve his chances in the final stages of the campaign.
“The big thing to note is that during Mr. Orbán’s recent visit to the United States, Mr. Trump appeared to promise a fiscal safety net if Mr. Orbán wins,” Schepere said, adding that the United States took similar steps to support Argentina’s right-wing ally and current president, Javier Milay, ahead of the country’s 2025 midterm elections.
“Trump has not made any formal promises and currently denies having made any concrete promises, but Orbán’s people believe that Trump will provide a backstop if he wins the election,” Schepere added. “If Vance makes an announcement like that, it could be a real game-changer.”
