Markets hold their breath over Trump administration’s deadline for Iran

Hello, my name is Dylan Butts from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Tensions are rising ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm ET on Tuesday. Otherwise, we will face attacks on power plants and bridges.

President Trump has delayed this deadline before. But on Monday, he reiterated his threat and signaled a willingness to follow through.

Will the US government’s threats strengthen its position at the negotiating table? Will I go back for Trump Tacos? The outcome is uncertain. But here’s how the market is reacting to the approaching deadline.

President Trump said Monday that the United States had received Iran’s latest ceasefire offer, but said it was “not enough” in the face of a looming Tuesday deadline and threats to Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

Still, Trump also struck a more measured tone in some of his comments Monday, telling reporters that Tehran was acting as an “active and willing participant” in the negotiations.

“They hope there will be an agreement. I can’t say anything more than that,” he said.

Meanwhile, Axios reported on Monday that the United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are negotiating terms for a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

These developments were enough to keep cautious Wall Street investors optimistic. The S&P 500 rose for a fourth session on Monday as investors weighed the possibility of a easing of tensions.

However, the oil market was not very positive. Prices rose slightly as President Trump doubled down on his threats against Iran, saying he would take four hours to destroy all of Iran’s bridges and power plants by midnight Eastern Daylight Time (4pm Japan time) on Wednesday.

U.S. futures were little changed Monday night as investors continued to digest new developments.

Beyond geopolitics, the momentum of artificial intelligence remains a key driver for the market. Broadcom expands chip partnerships with Google and Anthropic, highlighting surging demand for AI infrastructure.

In even more dramatic news, OpenAI sent a letter to the attorneys general of California and Delaware on Monday urging them to investigate “inappropriate and anticompetitive conduct” by xAI founder Elon Musk and his associates as a high-profile trial between the two approaches.

— Dylan Butts

A quirky Wall Street research firm announced it has sent analysts to the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they learned

As global oil traders parse satellite images and official statements for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm appears to have taken a different approach, sending analysts directly to the conflict zone.

Citorini Research, which issued a market-shaking bearish note on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it had sent an analyst to Oman’s Musandam peninsula, who traveled by boat to observe shipping activity firsthand amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States. What analysts say they have discovered calls into question the dominant view that dominates global markets that a vital oil artery is effectively shut down.

Instead, analysts, who the company declined to name due to the sensitivity of its work, found that ships were still passing through the strait, with traffic increasing to about 15 ships per day in recent days, according to a company report posted on Substack. Although well below normal levels, this trend suggests that the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Four to five tankers a day are passing through, but it’s black on AIS. The volume is higher than the data suggests, and the volume has been accelerating in recent days through the Qeshm Strait,” Sitrini’s post said.

— Yun Lee