ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Standing before reporters at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump was asked whether a ceasefire with Iran was within reach.
“There are active and willing participants on the other side,” he said on Monday, adding that the proposed proposals were “an important step” before quickly dismissing them as “not good enough.”
Pressed about who was leading Washington’s diplomatic push, Trump acknowledged what had been unfolding behind the scenes for days.
He named Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the first time as the administration’s chief negotiators, saying, “They are Marco, J.D.
Vance has largely stayed away from Operation Epic Fury as his administration struggles to develop a coherent diplomatic strategy for the war that started more than five weeks ago.
But Trump’s statement publicly confirmed that Vance has quietly emerged as a key figure in a last-ditch Pakistan-led effort to pull the United States and Iran back from the brink of what could be the most devastating escalation of war ever.
Over the weekend, the US president threatened to bomb Iran’s power and energy facilities if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass during peacetime, by early Wednesday Iranian time. On Monday, he launched a profanity-laced attack on Iran on his Truth Social platform.
And on Tuesday, about 12 hours before the voluntary deadline for Iran, President Trump further escalated his apocalyptic rhetoric.
“Tonight, an entire civilization will perish and never rise again. I don’t want it to happen, but it probably will,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by warning that all restrictions on targets would be lifted if Trump escalates militarily and further tensions in the wider region. Earlier in the day, Iran’s main export hub, Kharg Island, was bombed, and Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical facility.
Amid the attacks and threats, people close to the mediation effort said attempts to get the United States and Iran to agree to Pakistan’s proposal to halt the war in two stages were still ongoing.
Whether these efforts can resist the increasingly vitriolic rhetoric between the United States and Iran and move closer to a peace deal will be a test of Vance’s influence over President Trump and whether his presence at the talks will push Iran towards dialogue, the people said.
Vance’s known roles
On the eve of Trump’s speech, officials with knowledge of mediation efforts in Pakistan confirmed to Al Jazeera that the country’s army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, met with Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The call was part of an intensive mediation effort that Pakistan has been leading since late March. On March 29, Islamabad hosted the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to jointly push for an end to hostilities. The meeting follows previous talks in Riyadh on March 19, when the same regional powers began coordinating their approaches.
Earlier, during a March 26 Cabinet meeting, President Trump formally acknowledged his role in the diplomatic effort by asking the vice president to brief Iranian officials.
Pakistani media, citing a senior civilian official familiar with the talks, said the U.S. delegation, led by Vance, was preparing to make two trips to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran.
Both visits were canceled at the last minute after the Iranian government requested more time for internal consultations and ultimately refused to participate, the official said.
Still, by the end of last week, the effort had produced concrete movement. Iran confirmed receipt of the ceasefire proposal, opening the door to broader negotiations. However, the Iranian government ultimately rejected the plan as “illogical.”
Why does the Iranian government see Vance differently?
Iran’s clear preference for Vance predates the war.
On February 26, Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law and fellow real estate tycoon Jared Kushner concluded the third round of indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran’s Aragushi in Geneva. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, who mediated the talks, expressed optimism.
“A peace deal is within our reach,” he told U.S.-based CBS News the next day, citing “important, unprecedented and important developments,” including what he called Iran’s commitment not to stockpile enriched uranium.
“The big picture is that the deal is in our hands,” he said.
Nevertheless, two days later, U.S. and Israeli forces attacked multiple Iranian locations and began a war. The first wave of attacks resulted in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with other Iranian leaders.
From Tehran’s point of view, this was a second betrayal. U.S. officials had also held talks with Tehran in June before Israel, after which the U.S. bombed Iran during the 12-day war.
Javad Heiran Nia, head of Tehran’s Persian Gulf Research Group, said Iran initially viewed Witkov as a moderate member of Trump’s inner circle and accepted his role in that light.
When Kushner participated in talks before the February round, the Iranian government took it as a sign of seriousness, given Kushner’s closeness to President Trump.
“Iran’s assessment was that the United States was serious about negotiations,” Heiraniya told Al Jazeera.
However, that assessment was overturned by the United States’ decision to join Israel in starting a war even during negotiations.
“There is a sense among Iranian officials that the pre-war negotiations were essentially aimed at buying time to complete military deployment,” Heilaniya said.
Later, Western media reported that the Iranian government refused to engage with either Kushner or Witkoff after the Geneva meeting. CNN cited regional sources as saying Iran views Vance as more sympathetic to ending the conflict than other US officials.
Haylan Nia said that power relations within Iran are also shaping this trend. Since Khamenei’s death, factions within the political system have competed for influence.
The war strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but left President Massoud Pezeshkian’s government with limited authority over strategic decisions.
Heiraniya said acceptance of negotiations, including Pakistan’s mediation, came from the upper echelons of the Iranian regime. However, this format remains politically sensitive.
As of Tuesday evening in Islamabad, government officials said negotiations were at an advanced stage.
The new framework envisages a series of processes, with an initial agreement to establish confidence-building measures, followed by a formal ceasefire if those measures are maintained.
Details of these measures have not been made public, with Pakistani officials avoiding preempting decisions that are left to the U.S. and Iranian governments.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghaddam, hinted at progress on Tuesday.
In a post to
Iranian officials’ clarification that Pakistan’s mediation goes beyond preliminary talks is the clearest public statement yet.
But despite the growing diplomatic momentum, Trump’s comments appeared to be escalating.
“Tonight, an entire civilization will perish and never rise again,” he posted on Truth Social on Tuesday, suggesting that “complete and total regime change” may already be underway in Iran.
“47 years of extortion, corruption and death will finally end,” he added.
Politics, Perception, and 2028
It’s not just his personality that Iran likes about Vance. It is also rooted in his record on foreign intervention.
As a senator, Mr. Vance argued in a 2023 Wall Street Journal op-ed that part of the success of Mr. Trump’s presidency was in avoiding new wars.
He warned that a conflict with Iran in 2024 would not be in America’s interests and would result in a “huge disruption of resources.”
“I think we all prefer the diplomatic option, but it really depends on what the Iranians do and say,” he told the Washington Post a few days before the Feb. 28 airstrike.
Heyran Nia said the Iranian government’s view of Vance is based on two factors.
First, he was initially seen as opposed to the war, even though he later sympathized with the regime’s positions.
Second, unlike Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, he was not involved in the negotiations that preceded the strike.
“From a symbolic point of view, it is more legitimate for Iran to use him to legitimize the process to public opinion,” Heiraniya said.
He added that Vance’s wartime actions reinforced the view in Iran that the vice president was carefully positioning himself for a future presidential run.
Mr. Vance, widely seen as a front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, must balance his loyalty to Mr. Trump with his skepticism about the protracted conflict in the Middle East.
Analysts said both Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio face risks. Mr. Rubio’s support for the war could be a liability if the conflict drags on or ends poorly.
Mr. Vance, on the other hand, risks appearing disloyal if he strays too far from Mr. Trump’s positions.
Positioning oneself as someone who was instrumental in ending the war offers the possibility of overcoming that tension.
The calculus was not ignored in Tehran. “It has conveyed the impression within Iran that the vice president is taking a cautious approach to the possibility of assuming the role of president in the future,” Heiraniya said. “While acting within President Trump’s system, we seek to maintain an independent approach.”
