On Wednesday, the first day of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Israel carried out its biggest attack on Lebanon since the war began, killing at least 182 people, a move that threatens to derail an already fragile ceasefire.
Iran said the ceasefire included Lebanon, a position echoed by Pakistan, which helped broker the deal. Israel and the United States said otherwise.
Delegations from the United States and Iran are scheduled to begin negotiations in Islamabad this weekend, with whether Lebanon included in the ceasefire has emerged as a possible wild card.
“The Lebanese front could ultimately undermine efforts to maintain a ceasefire,” said Danny Sitrinowitz, a senior fellow in the Iran-Shia Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSSS) in Tel Aviv. From the Iranian government’s perspective, continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon “could justify new reactions against Israel,” he added.
Here’s what you need to know:
Hezbollah is an Iran-backed Shiite Islamist movement with one of the most powerful militias in the Middle East, and has been in conflict with Israel for decades from its base in neighboring Lebanon.
After Hezbollah attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel launched an all-out war against Hezbollah after the group supported Hamas and opened fire on Israeli-controlled territory.
In November 2024, Israel approved a ceasefire agreement that obliges Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. However, Israeli forces continued to hold their positions past the deadline, citing Hezbollah’s violations, and carried out almost daily airstrikes.
Hezbollah began firing on Israel after Israel killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an airstrike in late February.
The Israeli military retaliated with heavy airstrikes on what it said were Hezbollah positions, sending troops deep into Lebanese territory and attempting to set up a buffer zone in the country’s south.
More than 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon since the latest conflict began. At least 1,530 people had been killed and 4,812 injured as of Tuesday, according to the Ministry of Health.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military intended to destroy villages in southern Lebanon and barred the return of 600,000 displaced Lebanese “until the safety and security of the population of northern Israel is ensured.”
Katz said the destruction would be carried out “following the model of Rafah and Khan Younis in Gaza,” referring to two Palestinian cities heavily bombed by Israel during the Gaza war.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich last month threatened to annex southern Lebanon.
“The current operation in Lebanon must end with a fundamental change. The Litani River must become the new border with the Lebanese state,” he said, referring to the river that separates southern Lebanon from the rest of Lebanon.
Human rights experts have warned that the unrestricted mass evacuation order and new border controls imposed by Israel amount to a “potential war crime.”
Over the past 48 hours, officials involved in the negotiations have issued contradictory statements about whether Lebanon will be included in the ceasefire.
Unlike most ceasefire agreements, there are no publicly available documents supporting this agreement. Much of what is known about the deal comes from social media posts by President Trump, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and others.
Sharif told XPost on Wednesday that Iran and the US had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon.”
Israel later refuted Sharif’s comments.
“Fighting continues in Lebanon and the ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” Israeli military spokesman Avichai Adlai told XX on Wednesday, while issuing an evacuation order for some areas in southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office echoed this statement.
US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance also denied that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement in the war with Iran.
Lebanon on Wednesday experienced the heaviest attacks across the country since the war began.
A huge explosion was heard and smoke rose at the Israel-Lebanon border on Wednesday morning. Residents told CNN that no place was safe.
According to the Israeli military, more than 100 Hezbollah headquarters and military positions across the country were attacked simultaneously. The Lebanese Ministry of Health said at least 182 people were killed and 890 injured in the attack.
Following Netanyahu’s insistence that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, Aragushi called for an end to the “genocide in Lebanon,” and other Iranian officials also warned that the attack would be a violation of the ceasefire.
“The terms of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States are clear and unambiguous. The United States must choose between a ceasefire and a continuation of the war through Israel. It cannot choose both,” he wrote in X. “The ball is in the U.S. court and the world is watching to see if the U.S. will live up to its promises.”
On Wednesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned the United States and Israel of a “regretful response” if attacks on Lebanon continued.
The Revolutionary Guards claimed that as a result of the Israeli attack, ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz suddenly slowed down and then stopped.
Experts say only President Trump’s intervention can restrain Israel.
Mr. Sitrinovich said Prime Minister Netanyahu’s commitment to keeping Israel’s residents safe and broader political considerations could make a ceasefire in Lebanon less likely.
“This reality complicates any attempt to extend detente to the Lebanese front,” he said. “President Trump will probably need to be directly involved and make strategic decisions.”
Experts said that if Israel continued its attacks, it could be drawn into a new war with Iran and draw in Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, undermining attempts to de-escalate tensions.
Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said Israel may be trying to “torpedo” a ceasefire between the United States and Iran as Netanyahu seeks to “save whatever remains of his political career in Israel.”
