A panoramic view of the Navigator Terminal, an oil storage base along the River Thames in London, England, on March 10, 2026.
Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Volatility in the price of dated Brent, the global benchmark for real-world oil barrels, has led energy analysts to warn that deep stress in the physical oil market shows little sign of easing amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
As energy market participants continue to monitor disruptions to shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, an unprecedented gap has emerged between the Brent Strait and the Strait of the past. Previous month Brent futuressuggesting that supply shortages will continue for some time.
The spot price for date-bound Brent, which refers to physical cargoes assigned a delivery date between 10 days and one month in the future, was $131.97 per barrel on Thursday afternoon, according to data compiled by Platts.
That was up more than 7% in the previous session, but down from the all-time high of $144.42 hit on Tuesday, just before the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week cease-fire.
Dated Brent is valued based on bids, offers, and trades in the open physical spot market. This means it reflects the real world price of oil.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures for June delivery were trading 0.6% higher at $96.51 a barrel as of Friday morning.
“The $144 date for Brent is more than just a price record. It’s the physical market telling us that real barrels are becoming scarce. The market is pricing in scarcity, not just risk,” Andrejka Bernatova, founder and CEO of Dynamics Corporation III, told CNBC in an email.
“Even though the numbers have come down with the ceasefire, the underlying stress hasn’t gone away. Frankly, I think the market is ahead of the curve,” Bernatova said.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely closed, and this cease-fire is fragile at best. Until these trends actually start moving again, the $144 print is more of a warning than a historical anomaly.”
Typically, about 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping and maritime experts told CNBC that traffic through the vital energy artery will not return to normal anytime soon.
“Product strains could worsen even amid easing tensions if refiners delay purchases in anticipation of further price declines while physical flows remain restricted,” Janib Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said in a research note on Wednesday.
“Although Brent flat prices have fallen, instant physical differentials are likely to remain persistent, with tanker rates remaining high and tight oil buyers continuing to pay to secure limited global supply away from the Gulf.”
“This shows that perceived geopolitical risks can be mitigated faster than operational risks,” Shah said.
market turmoil
Morgan Stanley strategists said the Strait of Hormuz disruption caused a much more severe shock to spot Brentlink barrels compared to the main financial contract in Brent futures.
“Dated Brent is the market’s assessment of the value of immediate physical seaborne barrels in northwestern Europe, while ICE Brent is a standardized, centrally cleared futures contract whose ultimate cash settlement is linked to the forward Brent freight market through a defined expiry process,” Martin Lutz, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note published on Tuesday.
“While these two prices are related, they do not measure the same exposure in time or at the same point in the chain.”
Latz said the market turmoil shows the Brent system is pinpointing where shocks are most severe and immediate.
Pavel Molchanov, senior analyst at Raymond James Investments, said the supply disruption disrupted traditional trading patterns between different grades of crude oil.
“This speaks to the unprecedented stress and uncertainty in the oil market,” Molchanov told CNBC via email.
Among several examples of this, Molchanov said Brent crude oil futures typically trade $3 to $5 per barrel higher than in the U.S. west texas intermediate During the Middle East crisis, WTI briefly exceeded a premium of more than $10, but it was the highest futures price in the past decade.
Molchanov, on the other hand, pointed out that the price of Russia’s Urals crude has reached a level of $30 more than Brent in recent weeks, and that Urals has been trading at a deep discount to Brent since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Molchanov also noted that Saudi Arabia had raised the premium for Arab Light crude over the Oman/Dubai benchmark to $19.50, adding that this premium had “never before” exceeded the $10 level.
