Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.
Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters
Market share of most popular weight loss drug manufacturers in India, Eli Lillyfell in March, but rival Novo Nordisk held steady even as Indian generic drug makers flooded the market with lower-priced generic drugs.
Eli Lilly’s Indian market share in the GLP‑1 category of weight loss drugs fell to 56% in March from 61% the previous month, according to data from industry information provider Pharmarac. Novo Nordisk’s market share is stable at 25%.
India is a key market, with approximately 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of the population classified as overweight or obese. The country is also known as the “pharmacy of the world” and has a well-developed generic drug industry, supplying approximately 20% of the world’s generic drugs.
Last month, the patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drug, expired, sparking a wave of cheaper generic drugs made in India. These were expected to have a negative impact on Danish drugmaker Eli Lilly’s sales, but early data shows Eli Lilly was hit harder.
As the semaglutide drug becomes cheaper, sales of Eli Lilly’s more expensive tirzepatide-based brand are likely to decline further, experts say.
The Pharmac report noted that 13 Indian generic drug companies have jointly launched 26 brands of semaglutide, prescribed for both weight loss and diabetes management, within a matter of weeks.
Semaglutide is increasing
“The widening price gap between semaglutide and tirzepatide and the promotion of cheaper generic versions of semaglutide led to the erosion of (Eli Lilly’s) market share,” said Vishal Manchanda, a pharmaceutical sector analyst at Indian brokerage Systematics Group.
He added that while tirzepatide remains highly effective, its high price may limit it over time to wealthy patients focused on weight loss.
Eli Lilly’s Munjaro starts at about 13,800 rupees (about $148) a month, said Rajiv Kovil, a Mumbai-based diabetes specialist, adding that the price is more than twice that of Novo’s semaglutide drug and 10 times that of the cheapest generic version.
Experts say demand for anti-obesity drugs – a category in which Munjaro is more popular than semaglutide-based treatments in India – is being driven by short-term users seeking “fast-acting treatments”. These include people who want to lose weight quickly ahead of a special occasion such as a wedding.
Low-priced generic semaglutide is “causing immediate noise, driving patients and some prescribers toward affordability-focused choices,” Coville said, adding that the shift is more pronounced among users seeking quick results.
In addition to generic companies launching cheaper versions of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk also cut the price of Ozempic by 38% and Wigoby by 48%, it said in a March 31 press release.
price competition
Vikrant Shrotrija, Managing Director, Novo Nordisk India, said in a press release that with these price reductions, Novo aims to “make our medicines as affordable as possible to as many people in India living with type 2 diabetes, overweight and obesity as possible.”
This reduction has significantly reduced the premium price for Novo Nordisk’s GLP‑1 drug and generic semaglutide. The monthly price for Novo’s semaglutide product currently starts at Rs 5,660, while the monthly price for the high-end generic drug is around Rs 4,200.
Some generic versions of semaglutide can be purchased for as little as Rs 1,290 per month, said Anand Karad, director of pharmaceutical operations at Anand Rati Investment Banking. He added that “physician confidence in generic quality will be a key variable to monitor over the next 12 to 18 months.”
India’s GLP-1 market is estimated to grow nearly five-fold to 50 billion rupees by 2030, or more than $1.2 billion by some bullish estimates, due to rising prevalence of obesity and diabetes and the entry of low-cost generic drugs, experts say.
Experts said many Indian generic drug makers have launched GLP‑1 drugs and several more are awaiting regulatory approval, adding that demand is likely to be concentrated in just four to five companies.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industry, torrent pharmaceutical, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratory and Zydus Life Science Mr. Karad said the company is one of the Indian drug manufacturers in the best position to capture India’s GLP‑1 market.
