We watched the sun set over Islamabad and rise again as the marathon talks progressed. Ending without a deal would be a fundamental blow to early hopes of finding a way out of this crisis.
These were high-stakes meetings, the highest level of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, and it is difficult to underestimate how complex the discussions were.
In addition to what was said in the room, technical documents were exchanged and reviewed repeatedly. However, the two were far apart not only in content but also in style and temperament. Each delegation approached these negotiations with very different approaches. Although US Vice President J.D. Vance appeared to be pushing for a relatively quick solution after a two-week ceasefire was implemented, the Iranian government typically moves much more slowly and negotiates over long periods of time.
The ball now appears to be firmly in Iran’s court, with Vance saying the US has made the “best and last” offer. And if further talks are to take place, Iran will need to change its position somehow.
Iran believes that the negotiations failed due to the US’s “excessive” demands, and it is clear from both sides that nuclear enrichment is a key issue. Although Iran’s government has long maintained that it does not build nuclear weapons and only wants to pursue a nuclear power program, its recent actions to increase its uranium enrichment levels have caused great concern in the West and triggered last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel. Iran still appears to have no intention of giving up on its quest to become richer. The White House wants an ironclad promise that Iran will not build nuclear weapons.
As the talks progressed, various statements appeared to be aimed domestically in Iranian media, some explaining why Iran had entered into diplomatic negotiations with its longtime enemy. The Foreign Ministry went so far as to say that diplomacy was “a continuation of the sacred jihad of the defenders of Iranian soil.”
The two-week ceasefire itself was launched against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s extremist threats to wipe out civilization and blow up Iranian power plants and key infrastructure. The key question now is whether that threat will come into play again.
Two other fundamental questions are in the air. The question is how will Iran react to the US leaving? And how long will the world economy remain in a stalemate?
