As President Donald Trump threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan faces how quickly life on the island could change if Beijing follows through on its repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The global energy shock has exposed how fragile this self-governing democracy is, dependent on foreign fuel. Taiwan imports about 97% of its energy, providing electricity to 23 million people and powering its semiconductor industry, which produces about 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. The natural gas that powers the power grid is stored for just over 11 days.
The fuel that powers Taiwan arrives by ship, mostly from the Middle East, at a handful of ports along the island’s west coast.
The Art of Blockade: Even though China has never controlled Taiwan, it has spent years preparing to put pressure on Taiwan as it plans to “unify” it.
In recent military exercises, the People’s Liberation Army has simulated blockades of ports and sea lanes, with an emphasis on restricting access rather than launching a full-scale invasion. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has the world’s largest long-term operational navy.
At the same time, Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as an internal issue while broadly condemning US actions around Iran and Venezuela. Analysts say two recent U.S. military operations could give China a clear case to present the blockade as a “law enforcement operation” and justify potential future actions.
In Taiwan’s case, sustained disruption from the lockdown is likely to begin with power restrictions for air conditioning, elevators and escalators, street lights, etc., and reductions in business hours. If the disruption continues, rolling blackouts like those already experienced in Taiwan will become even more widespread. Train delays may occur. Pumping systems rely on electricity, which can make water supply unreliable in some areas.
Taiwanese semiconductor factories are likely to be prioritized, but could also come under pressure. Uninterruptible power supplies are required to avoid costly shutdowns.
Taiwan’s government is rethinking nuclear power and reconsidering plans to restart idled nuclear reactors in a bid to stabilize energy supplies. But restarting will likely take years, not months, as it will require safety checks, regulatory approvals and new fuel supplies.
