Welcome to The Debrief. In his Sky Sports column, Adam Bate combines data and opinion to examine the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. this week:
Arsenal’s expected goals from open play Bowen is now part of a great team Blobby’s hold-up play is outstanding
Arsenal’s lack of creativity from open play
Arsenal had a miserable weekend in the Premier League. That much is clear. After losing at home to Bournemouth, Manchester City’s win over Chelsea means the title is back in the balance. However, Arsenal’s performance was even more alarming.
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth played some good football, while Mikel Arteta’s side sent in some set pieces. And, well, that was it. Their expected goals from open play of just 0.18 reflects how well the Gunners have produced goals. It was tough to watch.
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Watch for free: Arsenal vs Bournemouth highlights
Of course, the focus on set pieces is also a theme of the campaign. Arteta’s team are adept at this, creating and scoring more shots from such situations than anyone else. But this was an example of how overemphasizing it can hurt your own momentum.
There is an opportunity cost to pulling a defender up every time he gets a foul in the middle of the field. Declan Rice has performed very well and this tactic made sense for most of the season. Saturday afternoon didn’t feel like that.
A total of 26 minutes and 48 seconds of the match was spent with Arsenal technically in possession but with the ball dead. Given his success with corners, it might make sense to take six minutes to prepare for a corner, but seven minutes for a throw-in?
Perhaps Arsenal know their strengths. After all, it is the formula that has taken them to the top of the Premier League. But it became a boring game and there are too many of them now. This was not an outlier. Arsenal often fail to create from open play.
Of the top six teams in the Premier League, this season they have played more games in which their combined expected open play goals were less than 0.3 than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. It happened six times.
This is highly unusual for a Premier League leader. In fact, over the past eight seasons, the contest’s eventual winners have ranked in the top two overall in open play creativity. Arsenal are ranked 6th in this metric. They are currently under Brighton.
Does it matter? Whether we can beat City in the next game is completely different. They would be even more legitimate if the goal came from a set piece. But it may help explain why fluency is an issue. A city look that’s perfect for running. Arsenal rely on moments.
West Ham’s Bowen contributes to goal
Jarrod Bowen celebrates West Ham’s third goal against Wolves
Jarrod Bowen probably felt West Ham’s FA Cup defeat to Leeds more than anyone after he twice hit the target in the quarter-finals and then saw his spot-kick saved in the penalty shoot-out. However, he contributed to a big win in the Premier League on Friday.
West Ham defeated Wolves 4-0 and moved out of the relegation zone. Bowen hit the post again, but this time it did less damage thanks to two assists for his team. This brings his total of eight goals this season in the Premier League to eight.
Bowen hasn’t always hit his usual heights in what has been a difficult season for the Irons, but the results remain. Since signing for West Ham in January 2020, he ranks among the top six players in the Premier League in goal involvement.
In fact, his consistency is underlined by the fact that only two other players have scored 10 or more goals in each of the past six seasons. The others include Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes.
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Highlights of the Premier League match between West Ham and Wolves
If Bowen can finish this season on a high note and be involved in four more goals in the remaining six games of the Premier League season, he will not only go a long way towards keeping the team in the competition, but he will also join an even more prestigious club.
Erling Haaland is the only player to have contributed 20 goals in each of the last three seasons in the Premier League. Bowen is the most deserving of this feat. What a great testament to his reliability, toughness and role as a talisman for this West Ham team.
Sunderland’s Blobby hold-up play
Brian Brobbey saves Cristian Romero as Sunderland beat Tottenham
Tottenham lost 1-0 to Sunderland on Sunday afternoon in Roberto De Zerbi’s first game as manager, further increasing the chances of West Ham staying. Brian Bobby didn’t score for the Black Cats, but he led the line impressively.
Former Sunderland striker Don Goodman said in co-commentary on Sky Sports: “There’s no one better at keeping the ball in the Premier League.” This claim certainly passes the eye test, but it’s worth looking at the statistics. And they seem to corroborate that, too.
The Dutchman has possessed the ball 48 times this season. Only Arsenal striker Victor Gokeres has performed better in the Premier League this season. However, Blobby has a higher success rate in retaining possession after receiving the ball in such situations.
In fact, it’s slightly better than anyone else higher on that list. Sunderland manager Regis Le Bris recently explained: “He started the season probably not at his best fitness level so he needed some time to be physically competitive.”
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Watch for free: Sunderland vs. Tottenham Hotspur highlights
Blobby is currently competing. “We want to play with him,” Le Bris said. “This can kill the press.” Long balls to the striker are often stuck together, and if the opponent puts players up front and isolates the defenders, that becomes a problem for the team.
His total of six goals in the Premier League may seem modest, but strangely all six of those goals were the final goals of the match. They took eight direct points from Sunderland, including the point at Newcastle. Now Blobby is bringing even more to the team.
